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Shouldn't I just wait until interest rates rise before purchasing LT bonds?
Posted: Thu Feb 07, 2013 3:21 pm
by catacomb
I know that trying to time the market is inadvisable, but in my country there are huge expectations for interest rates to rise in the coming spring.
This makes buying my country's long term fixed interest governmental bonds very unappealing. Shouldn't I just wait until interest rates go up before buying them?
Re: Shouldn't I just wait until interest rates rise before purchasing LT bonds?
Posted: Thu Feb 07, 2013 3:35 pm
by MediumTex
I smiled broadly when I read the thread title.
I wish that timing the markets was that simple.
People have been waiting for this rise in interest rates for decades.
Re: Shouldn't I just wait until interest rates rise before purchasing LT bonds?
Posted: Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:55 pm
by Pointedstick
I was just recently reading a Bogleheads thread from a few years ago where people were piling on someone who bought 30-year treasuries at 5%. All of them
knew that rates had nowhere to go but up.
Care to guess who wound up happier?
Re: Shouldn't I just wait until interest rates rise before purchasing LT bonds?
Posted: Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:59 pm
by Kshartle
I'm staying off this thread. Go all in
Re: Shouldn't I just wait until interest rates rise before purchasing LT bonds?
Posted: Thu Feb 07, 2013 7:14 pm
by MediumTex
Kshartle wrote:
I'm staying off this thread. Go all in
Not all in, just 25%.
Re: Shouldn't I just wait until interest rates rise before purchasing LT bonds?
Posted: Thu Feb 07, 2013 8:34 pm
by Bean
MediumTex wrote:
Kshartle wrote:
I'm staying off this thread. Go all in
Not all in, just 25%.
That's what she said
I couldn't help it
Re: Shouldn't I just wait until interest rates rise before purchasing LT bonds?
Posted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 9:45 am
by notsheigetz
I do feel your pain. Back when I started out it was stocks that I was hesitant to buy because they were down and supposedly going lower. When you think about how the plan is designed however, it seems almost inevitable that at least one of the sectors will cause you to balk.
Re: Shouldn't I just wait until interest rates rise before purchasing LT bonds?
Posted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 1:28 pm
by melveyr
From my perspective, the Treasury market is amazing.
Some of the most intelligent people in the world are trading it. All of their forecasts are embedded into the current interest rate, which is pretty incredible when you think about it. So all of your worries are already baked into the price
Re: Shouldn't I just wait until interest rates rise before purchasing LT bonds?
Posted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 1:58 pm
by MediumTex
With all of these anti-long term bond threads and posts, I'm having an "I did it for doodle" moment.
Re: Shouldn't I just wait until interest rates rise before purchasing LT bonds?
Posted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 2:08 pm
by melveyr
MediumTex wrote:
With all of these anti-long term bond threads and posts, I'm having an "I did it for doodle" moment.
Haha. You going to buy some call options on TLT again? If I recall last time that worked out pretty well for you, but you did sell a little early
Re: Shouldn't I just wait until interest rates rise before purchasing LT bonds?
Posted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 3:47 pm
by MediumTex
melveyr wrote:
MediumTex wrote:
With all of these anti-long term bond threads and posts, I'm having an "I did it for doodle" moment.
Haha. You going to buy some call options on TLT again? If I recall last time that worked out pretty well for you, but you did sell a little early
I sold after it doubled, but if I had held on it would have been a 10-bagger.