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The Best and Worst Days
Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2013 5:56 pm
by MachineGhost
Returns for the S&P500 (1/1/1980-12/31/02)*
% per year
Buy-and-Hold 9.55
Missed 10 best days 7.03
Missed 20 best days 5.18
Missed 30 best days 3.57
Missed 40 best days 2.12
Missed 10 worst days 13.44
Missed 20 worst days 15.47
Missed 30 worst days 17.18
Missed 40 worst days 18.75
Missed 10 best & worst days 10.83
Missed 20 best & worst days 10.87
Missed 30 best & worst days 10.78
Missed 40 best & worst days 10.68
* Tandem Financial Services, Inc. Study
Re: The Best and Worst Days
Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2013 8:10 pm
by clacy
If someone could give me a heads up on the 40 worst days in advance for all asset classes, it would be greatly appreciated.
Re: The Best and Worst Days
Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2013 8:44 pm
by MachineGhost
clacy wrote:
If someone could give me a heads up on the 40 worst days in advance for all asset classes, it would be greatly appreciated.
It used to be they occured below the 200-day MA, but I don't know if that is true anymore.
Re: The Best and Worst Days
Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 10:50 am
by clacy
MachineGhost wrote:
clacy wrote:
If someone could give me a heads up on the 40 worst days in advance for all asset classes, it would be greatly appreciated.
It used to be they occured below the 200-day MA, but I don't know if that is true anymore.
Yes, I have seen some research indicating that. I think many of the big up days are below the 200 dma also. That makes sense because I think volatility is much higher when the market is declining.
Re: The Best and Worst Days
Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 10:58 am
by MachineGhost
clacy wrote:
MachineGhost wrote:
clacy wrote:
If someone could give me a heads up on the 40 worst days in advance for all asset classes, it would be greatly appreciated.
It used to be they occured below the 200-day MA, but I don't know if that is true anymore.
Yes, I have seen some research indicating that. I think many of the big up days are below the 200 dma also. That makes sense because I think volatility is much higher when the market is declining.
Yeah, I recall the worst days and best days are also somewhat serially correlated because the worst days happen right before a V-style bottom that commences the best days. So the trick, then, is to avoid the worst days and not miss too much of the reversal. Missing some of the best days is more forgiving than not missing some of the worst days!
Buying exact bottoms like that will only work with esoteric techniques like cycle analysis, fibonnaci confluence or even financial astrology. Lagging technical indicators will not work.