Gyroscopic Investing

Just curious to hear from anyone who thinks prices will rise from here and why they think it will happen. Obviously I don't but I'm interested to hear.

Kshartle wrote: Just curious to hear from anyone who thinks prices will rise from here and why they think it will happen. Obviously I don't but I'm interested to hear.

No 30-YR's, but I have plenty of notes. If the prices rise, I may sell them. In the meantime, (it feels like) they offer protection in my stock-heavy VP.

From a technical analysis perspective (see 22 year chart below), it looks like it might be better to wait for interest rates to rise a bit more before considering a speculative play in 30 year treasuries.

The multi-decade bull market in treasuries appears to be very much intact, though.

The presence of so much dislike for this asset actually makes me feel good about the the bull market going on for quite a bit longer.  No bull market ends with so many people hating an asset. 

When Peter Schiff starts telling his followers to buy 30 year treasuries, the end of the bull market for treasuries will probably be near.

MediumTex wrote: When Peter Schiff starts telling his followers to buy 30 year treasuries, the end of the bull market for treasuries will probably be near.

Hahahaha, that is one scenario I truly cannot envision.

Tired of the endless subjectivity on the LT bonds issue (and because I just can't pull the trigger for real without really knowing...), I hereby present this amazing chart to go along with MT's:

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Note that this is a total return chart, so going up is bullish as opposed to a yield chart.

MG, I'm having a bit of trouble reading that chart. What's it showing? When's a good one to buy or sell LTTs?

Pointedstick wrote: MG, I'm having a bit of trouble reading that chart. What's it showing? When's a good one to buy or sell LTTs?

It's showing the total return price movement of LT bonds on a monthly basis.  When the little green up arrows show up, you buy and when the little red down arrows show up, you sell.

It is not time to buy bonds yet, they are still downtrending and if MT's chart is accurate, we're not near a bottom anytime soon either.  I admit I'm a little confused why a yield chart seems to be very similar to a price chart at the moment since yield and price are inverse with bonds.