Gyroscopic Investing

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2013 7:43 pm**

Well this is my 1000th post on here. I thought I would take a moment to express my gratitude to all of the many incredible people who contribute to this forum, especially Craig and MT. There are so many others ranging from people who are way ahead of me in the post count to newcomers or occasional posters, that I would still be typing come Christmas if I tried to name everyone.

I had already stumbled onto HB and the PP before finding this forum. But I can safely say that since coming here it has been a rare day when I did not learn something new or have my preconceived opinions and prejudices challenged. Although I do spend a lot of time (probably more than I should) online on various forums and blogs, this is by far the one where I spend the most time.

Thank you all very much.

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2013 8:04 pm**

I will second the Thank You. This forum is the best one I've ever seen. People actually talk to each other using logic rather than name calling, and this is very much appreciated.

Craig and MT: you are doing a great job, encouraging an open dialogue, only interfering when absolutely necessary, and all the while adding your own great insights. If you charged for use of this forum what it's worth, I wouldn't be able to afford it.

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2013 8:31 pm**

I'll third it. Couldn't agree more. THANKS!!!!

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2013 8:33 pm**

Fourth'ed. This is by far my favorite corner of the internet. The level of intelligence, logic, and knowledge displayed here is astonishing. It's always a pleasure to exchange ideas with such great people.

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2013 9:23 pm**

I now wonder what I spent my time on before I got to this forum. I feel like I have pre-forum life and post-forum life, and how my life has changed (for the better I feel), since I've started reading and posting ideas with this diverse and intelligent group.

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2013 10:13 pm**

I enjoy it just as much as the rest of you.

Thanks for the kind words.

Unlike many stops on the internet that are mostly a waste of time, I do think that there is a lot of really valuable stuff here. I have gotten out of it way more than I have put into it, so thanks to everyone for sharing their ideas and experiences.

The fact that the PP attracts such an interesting and diverse group of people is one more reason to give a hat tip to Harry Browne.

Posted: **Mon Apr 15, 2013 6:32 pm**

I'd just like to add my thanks. This forum is a voice of sanity in an area where panic can be costly. Thanks again.

Posted: **Wed Jan 01, 2020 4:19 pm**

Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2013 7:43 pm Well this is my 1000th post on here. I thought I would take a moment to express my gratitude to all of the many incredible people who contribute to this forum, especially Craig and MT. There are so many others ranging from people who are way ahead of me in the post count to newcomers or occasional posters, that I would still be typing come Christmas if I tried to name everyone.

I had already stumbled onto HB and the PP before finding this forum. But I can safely say that since coming here it has been a rare day when I did not learn something new or have my preconceived opinions and prejudices challenged. Although I do spend a lot of time (probably more than I should) online on various forums and blogs, this is by far the one where I spend the most time.

Thank you all very much.

Was there a similar announcement for your 2,000th one?

And, WILL we be seeing one for your soon to be 3,000th??!!

Vinny

Posted: **Wed Jan 01, 2020 4:22 pm**

I so lament that I discovered the PP after Craig and Tex had moved on.

I agree with Tex's post though -- this forum really is something else, and unlike most places on the web it's the opposite of a waste of time.

Posted: **Wed Jan 01, 2020 6:04 pm**

The forum is interesting even for non pp users ....

However I do want to say this ....be very careful about cutting off other forums with opposing views ..

The biggest defect we have is our brains can only deal with what we know ....We can not rationalize with what we don’t know ..

When we hang out with only those who support our view , like the same stuff and high five each other you never SLEEP WITH THE ENEMY ...that is the biggest obstacle most hit in developing their financial plan .

They never get in to bed with the enemy and learn what they know in such detail that if someone told you to argue one side or the other you could argue for or against with the same effectiveness..

I have changed my views on so much over the years once I learned what the opposing side knows .

My opinions have changed on everything from when to take ss , taking a mortgage , annuities, Roth’s , the list goes on and on . As I learned the opposing side I realized I was believing my own bull shit as it is called and parroting other not very well informed people and the opposing logic made a lot more sense

Posted: **Wed Jan 01, 2020 6:17 pm**

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 01, 2020 6:04 pm The forum is interesting even for non pp users ....

However I do want to say this ....be very careful about cutting off other forums with opposing views ..

The biggest defect we have is our brains can only deal with what we know ....We can not rationalize with what we don’t know ..

When we hang out with only those who support our view , like the same stuff and high five each other you never SLEEP WITH THE ENEMY ...that is the biggest obstacle most hit in developing their financial plan .

They never get in to bed with the enemy and learn what they know in such detail that if someone told you to argue one side or the other you could argue for or against with the same effectiveness..

I have changed my views on so much over the years once I learned what the opposing side knows .

My opinions have changed on everything from when to take ss , taking a mortgage , annuities, Roth’s , the list goes on and on . As I learned the opposing side I realized I was believing my own bull shit as it is called and parroting other not very well informed people and the opposing logic made a lot more sense

I couldn't agree more.

Wait, in keeping with the spirit of your post, I disagree. VEHEMENTLY.

Posted: **Wed Jan 01, 2020 6:35 pm**

You can disagree all you want but this is where so many burn themselves .....if you want a well rounded view you are never going to get it from hanging out only with those who support your view no matter what it is in life. You need to get in to the enemy camp and learn what they know . Then make your choices.

" Confirmation bias
What it is: We tend to seek out information that confirms or supports what we already think, and reject information that does not support our view.. In the words of Muhammad Ali, "I don't always know what I'm talking about, but I know I'm right."

The problem: Limiting yourself to information that confirms what you already think can cause you to miss important Data and facts from your reasoning

Posted: **Wed Jan 01, 2020 7:00 pm**

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 01, 2020 6:35 pm You can disagree all you want but this is where so many burn themselves .....if you want a well rounded view you are never going to get it from hanging out only with those who support your view no matter what it is in life. You need to get in to the enemy camp and learn what they know . Then make your choices.

" Confirmation bias
What it is: We tend to seek out information that confirms or supports what we already think, and reject information that does not support our view.. In the words of Muhammad Ali, "I don't always know what I'm talking about, but I know I'm right."

The problem: Limiting yourself to information that confirms what you already think can cause you to miss important Data and facts from your reasoning

https://youtu.be/SPmxsRDSmTc

Posted: **Wed Jan 01, 2020 7:35 pm**

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 01, 2020 4:22 pm I so lament that I discovered the PP after Craig and Tex had moved on.
...

They’re like the elder aliens that built the wormhole transport in ‘Contact’: they’re long gone, but the fruits of their labor are still functioning well.

Posted: **Wed Jan 01, 2020 7:46 pm**

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Jan 01, 2020 7:35 pm
Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 01, 2020 4:22 pm I so lament that I discovered the PP after Craig and Tex had moved on.
...
They’re like the elder aliens that built the wormhole transport in ‘Contact’: they’re long gone, but the fruits of their labor are still functioning well.

Perfect analogy.

I don’t care what anyone says, I enjoyed that movie!

Posted: **Thu Jan 02, 2020 9:55 am**

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 01, 2020 6:04 pm When we hang out with only those who support our view , like the same stuff and high five each other you never SLEEP WITH THE ENEMY ...that is the biggest obstacle most hit in developing their financial plan .

The PP is defacto sleeping with the enemy every day! How many people would scorn the low allocation to stocks, the high allocation to gold, the crazy allocation to bonds now that the bond bull is dead (hah). So much cash, are you crazy? And so on.

At any one time you are sleeping with up to 4 potential enemies, and probably only love 1 or 2 of the holdings.

And it works.

Posted: **Thu Jan 02, 2020 10:07 am**

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 01, 2020 6:35 pm .....if you want a well rounded view you are never going to get it from hanging out only with those who support your view no matter what it is in life. You need to get in to the enemy camp and learn what they know . Then make your choices.

But that's how I discovered the pp in the first place. They were the enemy camp when I discovered them at bogleheads.

Posted: **Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:17 am**

but then you don't want to dismiss non pp forums either . there is a lot to be learned from both sides ... i mean i frequent here but my first choice in a long term hold portfolio is not the pp ..

i am a temporary user at times when i need a place to stash the gains i made elsewhere when i am a little uncomfortable ... but i still copy the mail here and learn different views .. in fact i can argue for and against the pp equally well ...

so i would never say i am divorcing myself from the competition ... rather i want to learn more about the other side .

over the years following the work of michael kitces on other forums has not only taught me a lot but dispelled many of the thoughts and ideas i grew up on ...so i am always learning from other forums not just the ones that agree with me .

Posted: **Thu Jan 02, 2020 12:19 pm**

I agree. There's always something to learn.
I mean, I do dismiss daytrading and thus won't be subscribing to your upcoming newsletter, but I like reading this thread just the same.

My pp+vp is actually still closer to the classic bogleheads' 60/40 when I look at it altogether.
However, a lot of their advice didn't apply to me and I had to unlearn it, not having 10 million dollars or a large income. Tax loss harvesting, pooh-poohing dividends (and gold), keeping bonds in tax-deferred. I would have been better off having ignored all that.

Posted: **Thu Jan 02, 2020 12:26 pm**

Exactly ..
But I still don’t trust Tlt and Gld in a sustained rising rate environment .. it has not really been in one in the last 40 years ...so I prefer a much less interest rate sensitive portfolio as my full time portfolio and I enjoy seeing how i refine that over time ...

So I close my eyes to nothing and I assume what I know or believe can change at any time once a better argument is presented on all sorts of things

Posted: **Thu Jan 02, 2020 12:45 pm**

Hey, the road to ruin is paved with good arguments. :-)
That's why I prefer an agnostic portfolio, albeit with a mild tilt to prosperity.

Posted: **Thu Jan 02, 2020 1:40 pm**

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2020 12:26 pm Exactly ..
But I still don’t trust Tlt and Gld in a sustained rising rate environment .. it has not really been in one in the last 40 years ...so I prefer a much less interest rate sensitive portfolio as my full time portfolio and I enjoy seeing how i refine that over time ...

So I close my eyes to nothing and I assume what I know or believe can change at any time once a better argument is presented on all sorts of things

From Nov 2016 to July 2019, rates went from 0.41% to 2.4%, a 500% increase. Here's what happened to gold and TLT during the same time. Explain?

Posted: **Thu Jan 02, 2020 1:47 pm**

For the long bond the average went from 2.60 in 2016 to under 3% in 2019 .....the long bond went no where ....there was no increase in long term rates ....... increases in short term rates have little to do with where investors take longer term rates ...

..we have not had a true bear market trend in more than 40 years in long term bonds.. they tend to not be effected much by short term moves by the fed . In fact most of the time longer term bonds like short term increases by the fed if it seems to hold the line on inflation....so we are not talking the feds short term moves ...I am talking investors have not thrown the long term bonds in to a bear market yet in my investing lifetime

Longer term stuff does not move when investors don’t see eye to eye with the feds short term increases ..that is why we get these inversions

Interest rate cycles can span decades ...we have not seen anything but a down trend with some short term burps in 40 years in longer term bonds..

If you like at my chart I posted you can ski down it

Posted: **Thu Jan 02, 2020 2:11 pm**

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2020 1:47 pm Interest rate cycles can span decades ...we have not seen anything but a down trend with some short term burps in 40 years in longer term bonds

True, but we do have good data for the PP in the decade of the 70s when rates skyrocketed from about 6% to over 15%. And portfolio performance was largely the same then at it is now. So faith in the PP during periods of rising rates is not without empirical evidence.

Posted: **Thu Jan 02, 2020 2:12 pm**

We still have not seen investors throw long term bonds in to any meaningful modern day bear market ...not in 40 years.. you can ski down the slope of the last 40 years.

Nothing I would bet the ranch on that is for sure in the 1970’s vs today.. you see Tlt fall 2% in a heart beat when investors don’t like what they see And that is in an instant on some daily noise not a trend reversing 40 years of lower and lower rates

So I would never go by the past on the 1970’s action on a treasury bond to be honest, to me this is still uncharted waters since we have had nothing in more than 40 years as an example, certainly not in more modern day markets

Gyroscopic Investing

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