Permanent Portfolio Forum
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Then you should consider selling lots of call options at $1400, since they will be "free money".Desert wrote: I think gold will go to $1000 and then oscillate between $1000 and $1200 for 15 years.
Prognostication: The act of predicting the future.Desert wrote:Good idea, but that would require me having conviction enough to put my money behind my statements.Libertarian666 wrote:Then you should consider selling lots of call options at $1400, since they will be "free money".Desert wrote: I think gold will go to $1000 and then oscillate between $1000 and $1200 for 15 years.
So I'll just hold the gold and feel confident that gold will keep up with the CPI over the long term.
My Magic 8-Ball says, "Ask again later".MediumTex wrote:I don't know how we are going to get there, but in 10 years I think that gold will have peaked out at $4,000 per ounce at some point before falling back to $1,200 an ounce and then trading in the $1,400-$2,200 range for perhaps the next 20 years.
Barring some breakthrough in alchemy, I seriously doubt gold will ever go to $0. Even diamonds still have tremendous density of value despite synthetics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSyw2-4_DXgmelveyr wrote: Asking what the fair value for gold is like asking for what the fair value of a barrel of oil is. It's whatever someone is willing to pay for it. I don't think its possible for it to be overvalued or undervalued, it just is what it is. That's what makes it terrifying/wonderful to hold. There is no limit to high or low it could potentially go.
Maybe. Or to play devil's advocate, perhaps gold will continue indefinitely to rise in fits and starts. Ever since I was a kid I heard the phrase "Buy land. They don't make any more of it" implying land should always continue to rise over the long term. Can't the same be said for gold? Mining adds about 2% annually to the supply of gold but about that much is used up in industry so the total amount of gold is essentially fixed. With the rise of the middle class in India and China (i.e people who deeply value gold) along with rising awareness of gold in the Western world, doesn't this imply a long term rise in gold?MediumTex wrote: I don't know how we are going to get there, but in 10 years I think that gold will have peaked out at $4,000 per ounce at some point before falling back to $1,200 an ounce and then trading in the $1,400-$2,200 range for perhaps the next 20 years.
Gold and land are two very different things. Land has enormous utilitarian potential. Gold has very little. It is essentially just another currency whose principal attraction is that it can't be printed. But yea, basically gold is an alternative form of cash. Nothing wrong with that mind. But it is completely different from something with practical use like land. As a currency it will fluctuate in value against the other major currencies, most specifically the dollar which is the global reserve, for now. As such it functions mainly as a hedge against a serious currency event.FarmerD wrote:Maybe. Or to play devil's advocate, perhaps gold will continue indefinitely to rise in fits and starts. Ever since I was a kid I heard the phrase "Buy land. They don't make any more of it" implying land should always continue to rise over the long term. Can't the same be said for gold? Mining adds about 2% annually to the supply of gold but about that much is used up in industry so the total amount of gold is essentially fixed. With the rise of the middle class in India and China (i.e people who deeply value gold) along with rising awareness of gold in the Western world, doesn't this imply a long term rise in gold?MediumTex wrote: I don't know how we are going to get there, but in 10 years I think that gold will have peaked out at $4,000 per ounce at some point before falling back to $1,200 an ounce and then trading in the $1,400-$2,200 range for perhaps the next 20 years.
