The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Aug 11, 2020 9:41 pm

I have to slap myself but I actually took a look at GLD and SLV call options today. I have not looked at options for years.

Looks like the beating is continuing tonight. If it continues through morning, I may have to risk a few hundred on a couple 1-2 month out calls. I know I shouldn't, but I need to convince myself I still suck at timing options.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:21 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:28 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Aug 11, 2020 5:00 pm
I had cut my holdings in half about a week or two ago .......

I had a very uncomfortable feeling about all assets in the pp ......it was like investors were punch drunk .


I started to add some back today ...I couldn’t resist .....today was a killer drop on even the half that was left exceeding 35k ..to think if I didn’t cut back it would have been 70k is insane ..
If portfolio volatility is a serious issue, I should be the one freaking out, but I'm not.
I'm still way ahead for the year, which is good enough for me.


the reality is today volatility is greater on all investments ... things move fast and furious both up and down ....

especial;ly in the pp when assets can move together and act like very very high equity positions .

for a daily drop the fall yesterday in the pp is my 2nd biggest in dollars to date .

but because i had cut the position in half and it still fell so much it may actually now be on a dollars down vs dollars invested basis the worst drop i have had in one day . i think 52k was my worst day with the insight models
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:24 am

Kitco site is down so don’t freak out.
Gold is up 1+% at the moment and Silver +2.4%
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pugchief » Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:41 pm

Okay, so I have an interesting dilemma: Dentists accumulate scrap metal during the course of business and I have held it waiting for higher metal prices. Now that gold and silver are way up, I sent in a bunch for processing. They have given me the choice of tomorrow's spot prices (8/13), or the spot pricing on the day the assaying is complete (approx 7-10 days from now). Any advice which I should choose?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:03 pm

pugchief wrote:
Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:41 pm
Okay, so I have an interesting dilemma: Dentists accumulate scrap metal during the course of business and I have held it waiting for higher metal prices. Now that gold and silver are way up, I sent in a bunch for processing. They have given me the choice of tomorrow's spot prices (8/13), or the spot pricing on the day the assaying is complete (approx 7-10 days from now). Any advice which I should choose?

I want my fillings back!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pugchief » Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:30 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:03 pm
pugchief wrote:
Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:41 pm
Okay, so I have an interesting dilemma: Dentists accumulate scrap metal during the course of business and I have held it waiting for higher metal prices. Now that gold and silver are way up, I sent in a bunch for processing. They have given me the choice of tomorrow's spot prices (8/13), or the spot pricing on the day the assaying is complete (approx 7-10 days from now). Any advice which I should choose?

I want my fillings back!
No problem. But do you want them back tomorrow or 7-10 days from now?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:55 pm

😂
Feels like the end of the everything rally.
In Britain they have made burglary a safe occupation. It's like OSHA for burglars.
- Thomas Sowell on gun control
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:35 pm

pugchief wrote:
Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:30 pm
Ad Orientem wrote:
Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:03 pm
pugchief wrote:
Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:41 pm
Okay, so I have an interesting dilemma: Dentists accumulate scrap metal during the course of business and I have held it waiting for higher metal prices. Now that gold and silver are way up, I sent in a bunch for processing. They have given me the choice of tomorrow's spot prices (8/13), or the spot pricing on the day the assaying is complete (approx 7-10 days from now). Any advice which I should choose?

I want my fillings back!
No problem. But do you want them back tomorrow or 7-10 days from now?
>:(
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Aug 12, 2020 7:53 pm

Looks like the hemorrhaging has slowed and gold may be getting support around $1900 and silver around $25.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:40 pm

pugchief wrote:
Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:41 pm
Okay, so I have an interesting dilemma: Dentists accumulate scrap metal during the course of business and I have held it waiting for higher metal prices. Now that gold and silver are way up, I sent in a bunch for processing. They have given me the choice of tomorrow's spot prices (8/13), or the spot pricing on the day the assaying is complete (approx 7-10 days from now). Any advice which I should choose?
Bird in the hand...tomorrow.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pugchief » Thu Aug 13, 2020 6:39 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:40 pm
pugchief wrote:
Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:41 pm
Okay, so I have an interesting dilemma: Dentists accumulate scrap metal during the course of business and I have held it waiting for higher metal prices. Now that gold and silver are way up, I sent in a bunch for processing. They have given me the choice of tomorrow's spot prices (8/13), or the spot pricing on the day the assaying is complete (approx 7-10 days from now). Any advice which I should choose?
Bird in the hand...tomorrow.
And that is what I told them earlier this morning. Since gold futures are up. 8)
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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:39 am

pugchief wrote:
Thu Aug 13, 2020 6:39 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:40 pm
pugchief wrote:
Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:41 pm
Okay, so I have an interesting dilemma: Dentists accumulate scrap metal during the course of business and I have held it waiting for higher metal prices. Now that gold and silver are way up, I sent in a bunch for processing. They have given me the choice of tomorrow's spot prices (8/13), or the spot pricing on the day the assaying is complete (approx 7-10 days from now). Any advice which I should choose?
Bird in the hand...tomorrow.
And that is what I told them earlier this morning. Since gold futures are up. 8)
You don't have to answer, but after a career (??) of collecting scraps, how many ounces are we talking? Just curious.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pugchief » Thu Aug 13, 2020 11:00 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:39 am
pugchief wrote:
Thu Aug 13, 2020 6:39 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:40 pm
pugchief wrote:
Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:41 pm
Okay, so I have an interesting dilemma: Dentists accumulate scrap metal during the course of business and I have held it waiting for higher metal prices. Now that gold and silver are way up, I sent in a bunch for processing. They have given me the choice of tomorrow's spot prices (8/13), or the spot pricing on the day the assaying is complete (approx 7-10 days from now). Any advice which I should choose?
Bird in the hand...tomorrow.
And that is what I told them earlier this morning. Since gold futures are up. 8)
You don't have to answer, but after a career (??) of collecting scraps, how many ounces are we talking? Just curious.
I haven't gotten the report back yet, but I'll let you know. It felt very heavy (2 lbs?) when i put it in the box, but the bulk of that is garbage that has no value. I have been collecting this particular pile for around 10 years.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:48 pm

Libertarian666
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:37 pm

Ugly_Bird wrote:
Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:48 pm
Hmmmm...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold- ... yptr=yahoo
So they have two whole examples of when this theory would have predicted the gold price would go down, and that makes it a fact?
LOL.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Aug 21, 2020 7:13 am

for what it's worth , an article today on gold from seeking alpha

https://seekingalpha.com/article/437000 ... ent=link-0
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Mon Sep 21, 2020 10:33 am

Tough day across the board with everybody piling into cash. Gold and silver have both broken below support levels at $1900/oz and $25/oz. With much of Europe inching towards another lockdown, the major correction on Wall Street may not end soon.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Mon Sep 21, 2020 12:47 pm

Rising dollar is definitely putting the breaks on metals. I'm suspect that it will become a "major correction on Wall Street" though, as the scenario you listed should actually lead to a rally in U.S. assets (ie USD, stocks, and bonds) at the expense of the Euro, international assets, and metals. Of course, this could all just be a consolidation pullback for the Euro and metals, the USD was pretty oversold on the short term, and the Euro and metals have both been overbought in turn. A pullback in that trend could be a dip worth buying, especially if congress can finally agree on a fiscal stimulus package.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu Nov 05, 2020 2:47 pm

Thought I'd blow away some of the cobwebs from this unusually quiet thread. I note a nice bump in metals as people are anticipating more stimulus/debt/inflation with the likely change in administration. Also stocks and even bonds are all doing nicely today.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ppnewbie » Sun Nov 08, 2020 1:00 am

I’m wondering if I should focus acquiring silver. It’s still quite undervalued compared to gold.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:32 am

in a downturn , silver typically plunges with all other commodities ... 2008 saw gold up while silver plunged .
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:21 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:32 am
in a downturn , silver typically plunges with all other commodities ... 2008 saw gold up while silver plunged .

Agreed. Silver is strictly VP stuff. I do have a small position that I acquired when when silver was trading under $15 but I don't consider that as part of the PP. And as a speculation, I would not be adding to that position right now.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 7:43 am

not a pretty day for gold or tlt . gld shows down almost 4% and TLT down 2% premarket.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Mon Nov 09, 2020 7:49 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 7:43 am
not a pretty day for gold or tlt . gld shows down almost 4% and TLT down 2% premarket.
I had a little cash I needed to put into gold, and this looks like as good of a morning as any to deploy that cash.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:00 am

Well, this is where stocks take up the slack!
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