Gyroscopic Investing

Being that our beloved President will speak this evening on the state of the union, I was wondering what your opinion was on it's state. Please confine answers to 125 characters or less.

Reub wrote: Being that our beloved President will speak this evening on the state of the union, I was wondering what your opinion was on it's state. Please confine answers to 125 characters or less.

Better than some.  Worse than others.  Better than it was 100 years ago, worse than it could be.  Teleprompter stock price - up.

Let's see, I would say it's… heavily polarized between rich and poor; Democrat and Republican; upwardly mobile and sinking fast. And it's only gotten worse during the tenure of a liberal redistributionist-minded president. That to me is Obama's biggest failure: he's presided over a worsening in the conditions he's probably most upset about.

Pointedstick wrote: Let's see, I would say it's… heavily polarized between rich and poor; Democrat and Republican; upwardly mobile and sinking fast. And it's only gotten worse during the tenure of a liberal redistributionist-minded president. That to me is Obama's biggest failure: he's presided over a worsening in the conditions he's probably most upset about.

Why would you think he cares about polarization? That's just to keep his base happy, or at least not revolting.

Libertarian666 wrote: Why would you think he cares about polarization? That's just to keep his base happy, or at least not revolting.

I think he cares. I just don't think any of what he believes will alleviate it has worked (or could possibly work), and it's mystifying and frustrating and demoralizing to him, because it sure seemed like it should work in all the textbooks he read, as validated by all the liberal elites surrounding him.

I mean, here's a guy with pretty much no experience in the real world, having spent nearly his entire adult life as a student, professor, nonprofit employee, or politician, none of which really demand any actual real-world experience and all of which permit you to live in a bubble of your own ideas for as long as you want. Ever since he became the president, it's collided with reality for practically the first time in his life, and he doesn't know what to do.

Pointedstick wrote:

Libertarian666 wrote: Why would you think he cares about polarization? That's just to keep his base happy, or at least not revolting.

I think he cares. I just don't think any of what he believes will alleviate it has worked (or could possibly work), and it's mystifying and frustrating and demoralizing to him, because it sure seemed like it should work in all the textbooks he read, as validated by all the liberal elites surrounding him.

I mean, here's a guy with pretty much no experience in the real world, having spent nearly his entire adult life as a student, professor, nonprofit employee, or politician, none of which really demand any actual real-world experience and all of which permit you to live in a bubble of your own ideas for as long as you want. Ever since he became the president, it's collided with reality for practically the first time in his life, and he doesn't know what to do.

I think you are far too ready to believe that his public persona is an accurate reflection of what he really believes. My opinion is that he is just like all the other reptilian overlords, e.g., the Bushes and Clintons.

Pointedstick wrote: Let's see, I would say it's… heavily polarized between rich and poor; Democrat and Republican; upwardly mobile and sinking fast. And it's only gotten worse during the tenure of a liberal redistributionist-minded president. That to me is Obama's biggest failure: he's presided over a worsening in the conditions he's probably most upset about.

This has been pretty consistently getting worse since the '80's.  No president, in his limited power, could really change that on his own in 6 years in the midst of a recession.

I'm surprised you even see this as a worthwhile goal, though... or at least a problem that can be solved by a politician.

moda0306 wrote: No president, in his limited power, could really change that on his own in 6 years in the midst of a recession.

In this we completely agree Moda. Violence is the only tool the president has. This tool can only make it worse, not better.

moda0306 wrote:

Pointedstick wrote: Let's see, I would say it's… heavily polarized between rich and poor; Democrat and Republican; upwardly mobile and sinking fast. And it's only gotten worse during the tenure of a liberal redistributionist-minded president. That to me is Obama's biggest failure: he's presided over a worsening in the conditions he's probably most upset about.

This has been pretty consistently getting worse since the '80's.  No president, in his limited power, could really change that on his own in 6 years in the midst of a recession.

I'm surprised you even see this as a worthwhile goal, though... or at least a problem that can be solved by a politician.

No doubt about it, it's a long term trend.

I do see it as a worthwhile goal, albeit not one that could possibly be solved by a politician in a manner that didn't simply make things worse for everyone (i.e. "equalizing" things to a base level of misery and stagnation that everyone is subjected to, as demonstrated by Cuba and the former Soviet Union). I'm reminded of Kurt Vonnegut's Harrison Bergeron.

That's why I'm so down on electing politicians who want to give it a try. It's an impossible goal that they frustratingly have no hope of accomplishing, and they will probably make a terrible mess of other things in the process, which is exactly how I would characterize the incompetent and ineffective Obama administration.

Kshartle wrote:

moda0306 wrote: No president, in his limited power, could really change that on his own in 6 years in the midst of a recession.

In this we completely agree Moda. Violence is the only tool the president has. This tool can only make it worse, not better.

So in the spirit of "violence never solves a problem," can I start by asking whether you think me forcibly restraining another human being who is doing no harm to me or another person is a form of "violence?"

If so, what if the man was about to walk into the street with a  bus coming?

I guess "the ends justify the means," right?

Maybe for another time or place where we can discuss your incomplete logic without hijacking the thread .

Pointedstick wrote:

moda0306 wrote:

Pointedstick wrote: Let's see, I would say it's… heavily polarized between rich and poor; Democrat and Republican; upwardly mobile and sinking fast. And it's only gotten worse during the tenure of a liberal redistributionist-minded president. That to me is Obama's biggest failure: he's presided over a worsening in the conditions he's probably most upset about.

This has been pretty consistently getting worse since the '80's.  No president, in his limited power, could really change that on his own in 6 years in the midst of a recession.

I'm surprised you even see this as a worthwhile goal, though... or at least a problem that can be solved by a politician.

No doubt about it, it's a long term trend.

I do see it as a worthwhile goal, albeit not one that could possibly be solved by a politician in a manner that didn't simply make things worse for everyone (i.e. "equalizing" things to a base level of misery and stagnation that everyone is subjected to, as demonstrated by Cuba and the former Soviet Union). I'm reminded of Kurt Vonnegut's Harrison Bergeron.

That's why I'm so down on electing politicians who want to give it a try. It's an impossible goal that they frustratingly have no hope of accomplishing, and they will probably make a terrible mess of other things in the process, which is exactly how I would characterize the incompetent and ineffective Obama administration.

So since any government "program" is essentially taking from one to give to another, how can this be a "worthwhile goal?"  Or do you mean from a charitable standpoint?

moda0306 wrote: So since any government "program" is essentially taking from one to give to another, how can this be a "worthwhile goal?"  Or do you mean from a charitable standpoint?

I mean that I think dangerous levels of polarization between people living in geographic proximity to one another who hold vastly different beliefs and possess vastly different levels of wealth leads to bad things. The people who are poor and hold violent beliefs will eventually start killing people if it gets bad enough. But I don't trust government to solve this problem because its solution inevitably involves killing the golden goose, enriching itself, and acting as a conduit for the poor majority to fleece the rich, leading to a general level of impoverishment and a shrinking societal "pie", which can lead to killing and death as well (and often has, historically).

IMHO it's impossible to moderate government such that inequality is systemically lessened without either taking from A to give to B, or accidentally (or on purpose) destroying A at B's behest.

First post!  I stumbled upon this site a week ago and just started reading TPP by Rowland and Lawson.  My only disappointment so far is all the partisan BS that is unnecessarily shared across many topics and posts in this forum.  The stated objective here is for HB followers to protect and hopefully grow their savings, not to complain about all the things you hate.  If you want to hate, go find another forum so the rest of us can focus on TPP.  Now for my 125 characters....

Deflationary environment.  Interest rates will rise.  Stock market euphoric.  TPP unproven in this specific scenario.  Maybe that doesn't matter?

JHWY wrote: First post!  I stumbled upon this site a week ago and just started reading TPP by Rowland and Lawson.  My only disappointment so far is all the partisan BS that is unnecessarily shared across many topics and posts in this forum.  The stated objective here is for HB followers to protect and hopefully grow their savings, not to complain about all the things you hate.  If you want to hate, go find another forum so the rest of us can focus on TPP.  Now for my 125 characters....

Deflationary environment.  Interest rates will rise.  Stock market euphoric.  TPP unproven in this specific scenario.  Maybe that doesn't matter?

The "Other" section of our discussions is decidedly not very connected to investing/PP talk.  You might want to get used to it .  Other sections are awesome for discussing these various topics.

Regarding your prediction....

Do you mean the PP is unproven in a scenario where interest rates rise, inducing deflation?  In this case, you're half right... it's tested in 1981, where interest rates rose to stomp inflation, but it does take a hit in those environments.

If you mean just a general deflationary financial shock (usually these lower interest rates), then 2008 was a pretty good test, but this is obviously not what you meant.

So I guess what do you think is going to drive what?  High rates drive deflation, or vice-versa?

moda0306 wrote:

JHWY wrote: First post!  I stumbled upon this site a week ago and just started reading TPP by Rowland and Lawson.  My only disappointment so far is all the partisan BS that is unnecessarily shared across many topics and posts in this forum.  The stated objective here is for HB followers to protect and hopefully grow their savings, not to complain about all the things you hate.  If you want to hate, go find another forum so the rest of us can focus on TPP.  Now for my 125 characters....

Deflationary environment.  Interest rates will rise.  Stock market euphoric.  TPP unproven in this specific scenario.  Maybe that doesn't matter?

The "Other" section of our discussions is decidedly not very connected to investing/PP talk.  You might want to get used to it .  Other sections are awesome for discussing these various topics.

JHWY.....investments and economics and such are all interesting topics. Once you've gone through them in a couple weeks you will have figured out where to put your gold...how to buy your bonds....what account your stocks should be in, and what form is best to hold your cash. You might even dable in some predictions and discussions of the markets.

Then you'll come down to "other". And then we will have you. 

JHWY wrote: First post!  I stumbled upon this site a week ago and just started reading TPP by Rowland and Lawson.  My only disappointment so far is all the partisan BS that is unnecessarily shared across many topics and posts in this forum.  The stated objective here is for HB followers to protect and hopefully grow their savings, not to complain about all the things you hate.  If you want to hate, go find another forum so the rest of us can focus on TPP.  Now for my 125 characters....

Deflationary environment.  Interest rates will rise.  Stock market euphoric.  TPP unproven in this specific scenario.  Maybe that doesn't matter?

You've got to learn how to compartmentalize, my man!

At this point, I'm going to claim that this thread offers some great support for my earlier opinion about the state of our union.

Has anybody ever heard of Cathy McMorris Rodgers? I just got an email from the Republican party saying she's been chosen to rebut Obama's speech.

The liberal radio report on her that I heard today described her as being the first member of Congress to give birth to 3 children while in office. Seriously, that was the first thing that they mentioned. I think that they want to make her seem like a breeding cow instead of an ethereal counterweight.

As Yakov Smirnoff used to say, What a Country!    My cellphone is a supercomputer with access to internet along with a camera (still and video).  My cars (nuthin fancy..) have four wheel drive, crumple zones, and airbags galore.  That car can take my family quickly to tons of state park and game land (Pennsylvania) and across the nation to an insane collection of National Parks.  The individual freedom that technology is bringing (computers, internet, home solar, home geothermal, 3-d printing, etc...)  is amazing. 

Put me in the glass half full group for the United States of America.  AS much as I bitch and complain about corporate welfare and big government,  I am a happy idiot struggling for the legal tender...

Newsflash - youtube video showing Republican strategy meeting for the State of the Union rebuttal

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ExWfh6sGyso

brick-house wrote: As Yakov Smirnoff used to say, What a Country!    My cellphone is a supercomputer with access to internet along with a camera (still and video).  My cars (nuthin fancy..) have four wheel drive, crumple zones, and airbags galore.  That car can take my family quickly to tons of state park and game land (Pennsylvania) and across the nation to an insane collection of National Parks.  The individual freedom that technology is bringing (computers, internet, home solar, home geothermal, 3-d printing, etc...)  is amazing. 

Put me in the glass half full group for the United States of America.  AS much as I bitch and complain about corporate welfare and big government,  I am a happy idiot struggling for the legal tender...

Newsflash - youtube video showing Republican strategy meeting for the State of the Union rebuttal

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ExWfh6sGyso

Or vice versa since we are ALL equal ... and making it more so by bringing down the top toward the bottom - with emphasis on the vice!

Pointedstick wrote:I mean, here's a guy with pretty much no experience in the real world, having spent nearly his entire adult life as a student, professor, nonprofit employee, or politician, none of which really demand any actual real-world experience and all of which permit you to live in a bubble of your own ideas for as long as you want. Ever since he became the president, it's collided with reality for practically the first time in his life, and he doesn't know what to do.

Life imitates "art"...

From Ghostbusters wrote:Personally, I liked working for the university! They gave us money and facilities. We didn't have to produce anything. You've never been out of college. You don't know what it's like out there! I've worked in the private sector... they expect results!

mountaineer wrote: 

Or vice versa since we are ALL equal ... and making it more so by bringing down the top toward the bottom - with emphasis on the vice!

Well...we are all created equal, but we are all born on different bases.  Wasn't George Bush Jr. born on third, but thought he hit a home run?  In my region (Philadelphia), big difference in environment (law/order, medical facilities, education) between the top and bottom.  North Philly and the Main Line are less than ten miles apart, but worlds away.  Think Trading Places...

The state of the "Top" has been getting stronger for years.  Not sure how the top is being brought to the bottom when the trend is the opposite.  IMHO - It appears the top is running away and hiding from the bottom (and the middle).  The paper economy that the top owns is booming while the real economy is hurting. 

As for vice!  Half of my money I spent on wine, women, and song - the other half I wasted....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZjDbJQKDXCY

You know, the biggest thing that really amazes me about Obama is not only his ability to claim to do something good while simultaneously carving out exceptions that contradict or practically nullify the original claim, but how this rhetorical trick manages to pull the wool over so many people's eyes. I just heard thunderous applause as Obama said something along the lines of:

"I have good news: we're pulling out of Afghanistan, ending our longest-lasting war! Now that said, we're leaving a small number of American soldiers there to continue the same two open-ended, unwinnable missions they're currently involved in for an indefinite period of time."

And the crowd goes wild!!!!!! Amazing. Just amazing.

brick-house wrote: As Yakov Smirnoff used to say, What a Country!    My cellphone is a supercomputer with access to internet along with a camera (still and video).  My cars (nuthin fancy..) have four wheel drive, crumple zones, and airbags galore.  That car can take my family quickly to tons of state park and game land (Pennsylvania) and across the nation to an insane collection of National Parks.  The individual freedom that technology is bringing (computers, internet, home solar, home geothermal, 3-d printing, etc...)  is amazing. 

Put me in the glass half full group for the United States of America.  AS much as I bitch and complain about corporate welfare and big government,  I am a happy idiot struggling for the legal tender...

Newsflash - youtube video showing Republican strategy meeting for the State of the Union rebuttal

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ExWfh6sGyso

Very well said.