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2014 Halftime report
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 1:15 pm
by Kshartle
Returns since bailouts and QE operations:
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 halftime
GLD/VTI 26.5% 23.3% 5.3% 11.5% 2.6% 8.9%
TLT/SHY -10.7% 5.7% 17.7% 1.5% -6.6% 6.1%
Difference 37.2% 17.6% -12.4% 10% 9.2% 2.8%
Well......it's pretty clear that the equity side of the PP is still beating the fixed dollar side although the bonds have been holding their own this year.
Anyone think the performance gap will close or widen for the rest of the year?
Re: 2014 Halftime report
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:37 pm
by dualstow
With stocks, we haven't got into irrational exuberance time yet, in my opinion.
Perhaps after the Dow hits 17,000 (just a stone's throw away), and when the S&P hits 2000? (Just 1.3% to go).
Re: 2014 Halftime report
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:39 pm
by Kshartle
D are you saying you think once those thresholds are breached we are likely to see a big move higher in your opinion?
Re: 2014 Halftime report
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:44 pm
by dualstow
Kshartle wrote:
D are you saying you think once those thresholds are breached we are likely to see a big move higher in your opinion?
More like wishful thinking on my part. I'd like to rebalance out of stocks again.
As for my opinion: stocks may go up, or they may go down.
But I do think psychology could trump valuations for a while if those numbers are breached.
Re: 2014 Halftime report
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 8:42 pm
by buddtholomew
Kshartle wrote:
Returns since bailouts and QE operations:
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 halftime
GLD/VTI 26.5% 23.3% 5.3% 11.5% 2.6% 8.9%
TLT/SHY -10.7% 5.7% 17.7% 1.5% -6.6% 6.1%
Difference 37.2% 17.6% -12.4% 10% 9.2% 2.8%
Well......it's pretty clear that the equity side of the PP is still beating the fixed dollar side although the bonds have been holding their own this year.
Anyone think the performance gap will close or widen for the rest of the year?
Interesting that you consider GLD a part of the equity side; or is it that VTI and GLD are not fixed income?
Re: 2014 Halftime report
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 8:55 pm
by Kshartle
buddtholomew wrote:
Kshartle wrote:
Returns since bailouts and QE operations:
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 halftime
GLD/VTI 26.5% 23.3% 5.3% 11.5% 2.6% 8.9%
TLT/SHY -10.7% 5.7% 17.7% 1.5% -6.6% 6.1%
Difference 37.2% 17.6% -12.4% 10% 9.2% 2.8%
Well......it's pretty clear that the equity side of the PP is still beating the fixed dollar side although the bonds have been holding their own this year.
Anyone think the performance gap will close or widen for the rest of the year?
Interesting that you consider GLD a part of the equity side; or is it that VTI and GLD are not fixed income?
Yes because you actually own something, you haven't made a loan. In two of HB's early works he put stocks and gold, as well as other stuff into a category he called "equity".
Re: 2014 Halftime report
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 11:18 pm
by Tyler
It's been a nice year so far. Here's hoping it maintains this pace for a while.
It's also interesting how forum activity (on the PP questions side) seems to have trailed off the last quarter. There were lots of new investors when the PP was growing relative to stocks, and lots of hand-wringing when it had a down period last year. But steady growth calms everyone down.
I appreciate topics like this to add some nice perspective to the less vocal periods where the PP just keeps on doing its thing.
Re: 2014 Halftime report
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:26 am
by modeljc
At halftime, I got three year PP returns of +20% and three years of Inflation at +5%. That is a FAT bogey of 5% per year! By year end I hope two year PP returns will equal 3% or more after inflation. We need a 2014 PP return of +10% or so to get to an acceptable bogey for 2013 and 2014.
Re: 2014 Halftime report
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:31 am
by Kshartle
modeljc wrote:
three years of Inflation at +5%.
Re: 2014 Halftime report
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 10:51 am
by goodasgold
Re: 2014 Halftime report
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 11:00 am
by Kshartle
hmmmm I've got these numbers from July 1 - July 3:
VTI +1.11
GLD -0.85
TLT -2.15
of course we are now talking extremely short term
*Edit, just saw you were referring to today*
Re: 2014 Halftime report
Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2014 9:59 am
by dualstow
dualstow wrote:
With stocks, we haven't got into irrational exuberance time yet, in my opinion.
Perhaps after the Dow hits 17,000 (just a stone's throw away), and when the S&P hits 2000? (Just 1.3% to go).
dualstow wrote:
Kshartle wrote:
D are you saying you think once those thresholds are breached we are likely to see a big move higher in your opinion?
More like wishful thinking on my part. I'd like to rebalance out of stocks again.
As for my opinion: stocks may go up, or they may go down.
But I do think psychology could trump valuations for a while if those numbers are breached.
Now bring on the irrational exuberance!
Again, I'm hoping not predicting.
