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TLT and interest rates
Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2014 10:32 am
by portart
Looks like TLT's price will be going down for awhile with strong growth numbers published today. I think it says one more report like this and interest rates will most likely start going the other way having bottomed here.
Re: TLT and interest rates
Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2014 12:06 pm
by moda0306
The thing is, I really don't know how much LONG rates will adjust. There's currently about a 0-3.2% spread between long and short rates. This is a huge spread, historically, so I highly doubt if short rates went to 2%, we'd see long rates at 5.2%, but I could be wrong. I don't know where I get this, but I sort of see a 4.5% ceiling on long-rates for a while to come, yet...
Not that a 3.2%-to-4.5% jump in rates won't be a drop worth considering to your TLT values.
Re: TLT and interest rates
Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2014 2:18 pm
by barrett
Ouch. A pretty big hit today. Moda, if you are right, I will be rebalancing into bonds at higher rates and happy for the higher overall yield in my PP (I'll be steadily venting on the way down though. Grrr.).
Re: TLT and interest rates
Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2014 3:00 pm
by dragoncar
barrett wrote:
Ouch. A pretty big hit today. Moda, if you are right, I will be rebalancing into bonds at higher rates and happy for the higher overall yield in my PP (I'll be steadily venting on the way down though. Grrr.).
That's a spicy meatball.... but I still hate gold more.