Gyroscopic Investing

I'm amazed at how cheap this fund became this year. Sits today at a brutal -7.7% away from NAV:
www.gold-trust.com/asset_value.htm

The nice thing about rebalancing by addition is that I've bought through 2014 as low as -11% NAV when my gold dips relative to bonds/stocks/cash. I was around through the 2011 run up and traded in and out o fCentral Fund of Canada (CEF) as it sizzled around +6% NAV, even that fund has now been crushed to similar levels as GTU (now I'm older and wiser no more "trading"!)

Was anyone investing in 2008 aware of how low GTU got below it's NAV? I heard somewhere CEF got to -25% at some point I'm guessing in the early 2000s? 

CEFconnect has premium/discount information.  There's no direct link to this, but "since inception" data is available for, say, CEF at http://www.cefconnect.com/Details/Summa ... Ticker=CEF

From there, click "Pricing information" and then "Since inception".  Looks like the biggest discount they have (which is not actually "since inception", since CEF actually goes back 40+ years) is about -17% sometime in 2000.

rickb wrote: Looks like the biggest discount they have (which is not actually "since inception", since CEF actually goes back 40+ years) is about -17% sometime in 2000.

Thanks for the maximum discount info.

Can you please give us the maximum premium offered in this time period?

goodasgold wrote:

rickb wrote: Looks like the biggest discount they have (which is not actually "since inception", since CEF actually goes back 40+ years) is about -17% sometime in 2000.

Thanks for the maximum discount info.

Can you please give us the maximum premium offered in this time period?

From the graph?  Looks like about 27% some time in 2003 (but the graph only goes back to Jan 94).

Max and min for GTU (from its graph) looks to be about +32% (in 2009) and -12% a few months ago.

The discount is now down to less than 6%, so anyone who bought at the recent bigger discounts is getting a fillip to their already good return due to the gold price going up.

Libertarian666 wrote: The discount is now down to less than 6%, so anyone who bought at the recent bigger discounts is getting a fillip to their already good return due to the gold price going up.

GTU seems to be slightly more volatile than gold.  Just wish I could have rebalanced at the high discout

I would be weary of holding a position in GTU through a brokerage window in an employer's plan; should one leave employment one may be forced to sell at a lower discount than at purchase.  Otherwise, IRAs or personal brokerage accounts would be a great places for holding GTU provided balancing bands are used, IMHO.

I seem to recall that MorningStar that showed the fund achieving a premium of ~20% (!) back in 2009 or 2010.  If I'm remembering right, that's a huge advantage for PP'ers.  Heck, CEF versions of a pure S&P 500 index and pure long treasuries---if such funds exist---would, along with GTU, be interesting to backtest against to see if the premiums and discounts gave a boost during rebalancing.

FYI: It appears that GTU's premium was ~29% in April of 2009:

http://performance.morningstar.com/fund ... en-US&cur=

...the discount was -6% in July of 2004, shortly ahead of the 2008 débâcle.  The fund looks like a winner with the above caveats; 1) hold GTU in an account that one won't or couldn't be forced out of, and 2) stick to one's rebalancing bands.

We got pretty close to parity during the January run up, but back down it's gone. I'm gonna start keep an eye on this thing and hope to pick up some more -10% below NAV with another downleg. CEF is trading at similar discounts...


Central GoldTrust
05:16 PM 04-Mar-15
                          US$  CDN$
Net asset value per Unit $44.30 $55.11  
Trading Symbols on NYSE and TSX      GTU GTU.UN
Closing market prices 04-Mar-15 $41.33 NYSE $51.20 TSX
Premium / - Discount           -6.7% -7.1%