Gyroscopic Investing

This is getting comical.....

Declared/Likely

Scott Walker
Rand Paul
Jeb Bush
Chris Cristie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Ben Carson
Marco Rubio
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Rick Santorum
George Pataki
Rick Perry

Possible/Exploratory

John Kasich
Bobby Jindahl
Donald Trump

Sort of turning into a joke.  Polar opposite of the Dems where you have one looming front runner that's 95% odds on favorite to win the nomination.  The R's primary season should be quite interesting going forward.

We can eliminate a number of those already declared/likely from the competition:

1. Chris Christie, as he would be better suited as a running mate for Hillary;
2. Rick Santorum, as his main claim to fame is that he suffered the worst defeat of a sitting Senator in Pennsylvania electoral history.
3. Lindsey Graham, as a general laughingstock.

and I'm sure several of the others can be dismissed just as easily.

Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson, and Donald Trump have no actual political experience, which is funny.

Pointedstick wrote: Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson, and Donald Trump have no actual political experience, which is funny.

Um, last time we elected someone with political experience, he was called Obama.

MachineGhost wrote:

Pointedstick wrote: Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson, and Donald Trump have no actual political experience, which is funny.

Um, last time we elected someone with political experience, he was called Obama.

Almost none! Are you familiar with Obama's political history? The guy had done almost nothing of any note as an elected official, and his biggest "achievement" was giving an inspirational speech at the 2004 DNC convention. Until the presidential race, all of his races had been so easy to win due to poor opponent choice that you'd have to be Josef Stalin to have lost. He displayed basically no political skill before becoming president, and, I would argue, continues that streak today.

Frankly, I would take a non-politico with business experience like Fiorina over a life long political class any day, but it won't happen. 

clacy wrote: Frankly, I would take a non-politico with business experience like Fiorina over a life long political class any day, but it won't happen.

Herbert Hoover was a great guy and businessman but an awful president. There are other examples of this. To me, in all the areas where a president has far too much power, currently (foreign conflicts and the spy-state) I highly doubt any of these business owner candidates would be nearly as "small government" as we might hope or that they would be on economic issues, where presidents have far-less power anyway.

clacy wrote: Frankly, I would take a non-politico with business experience like Fiorina over a life long political class any day, but it won't happen.

Business experience such as almost destroying a major tech company with her incompetent management? No, thanks.

Libertarian666 wrote:

clacy wrote: Frankly, I would take a non-politico with business experience like Fiorina over a life long political class any day, but it won't happen.

Business experience such as almost destroying a major tech company with her incompetent management? No, thanks.

+1

Simonjester wrote:

Libertarian666 wrote:

clacy wrote: Frankly, I would take a non-politico with business experience like Fiorina over a life long political class any day, but it won't happen.

Business experience such as almost destroying a major tech company with her incompetent management? No, thanks.

didn't she pander and double speak in her run for Governor? if recall correctly she was against illegal immigration in front of conservatives, and for it in front of Latino groups...  proving she is well on her way to being a member of the political class, and holds firmly to their type of values (believe whatever it takes to win... power is the goal... not principals)

At least that kind of double-speak eventually reconciles itself to either action or non-action out in the open...

The double-speak I'm more concerned with is this kind:

1) Candidate says in front of everyone how important the "free market" is, and how dangerous, inefficient, and unreliable government involvement in our life can be, even if it is open and monitored.

2) Candidate gets elected and deregulates industry and lowers taxes.

3) Candidate takes arm of that dangerous, inefficient, unreliable entity that is charged with killing others in the world and gives them a ton of secretive powers that, somewhat conveniently, work via a massive amount of "private sector" inputs that rely on growing defense spending to stay financially afloat.

This doesn't get called out nearly as easily, so it's IMO much more important to focus on.  If we use this kind of double-speak as a measuring-stick of whether people adhere to principals vs power, there are few business-types that I'd be very confident in, regardless of what their flip-floppery on immigration might or may not be.  Rand Paul is the closest thing to principled in the Repub line-up as far as I can tell, with everyone else a distant turd .

moda0306 wrote:

Simonjester wrote:

Libertarian666 wrote:

Business experience such as almost destroying a major tech company with her incompetent management? No, thanks.

didn't she pander and double speak in her run for Governor? if recall correctly she was against illegal immigration in front of conservatives, and for it in front of Latino groups...  proving she is well on her way to being a member of the political class, and holds firmly to their type of values (believe whatever it takes to win... power is the goal... not principals)

At least that kind of double-speak eventually reconciles itself to either action or non-action out in the open...

The double-speak I'm more concerned with is this kind:

1) Candidate says in front of everyone how important the "free market" is, and how dangerous, inefficient, and unreliable government involvement in our life can be, even if it is open and monitored.

2) Candidate gets elected and deregulates industry and lowers taxes.

3) Candidate takes arm of that dangerous, inefficient, unreliable entity that is charged with killing others in the world and gives them a ton of secretive powers that, somewhat conveniently, work via a massive amount of "private sector" inputs that rely on growing defense spending to stay financially afloat.

This doesn't get called out nearly as easily, so it's IMO much more important to focus on.  If we use this kind of double-speak as a measuring-stick of whether people adhere to principals vs power, there are few business-types that I'd be very confident in, regardless of what their flip-floppery on immigration might or may not be.  Rand Paul is the closest thing to principled in the Repub line-up as far as I can tell, with everyone else a distant turd .

+ $1 trillion.

moda0306 wrote: This doesn't get called out nearly as easily, so it's IMO much more important to focus on.  If we use this kind of double-speak as a measuring-stick of whether people adhere to principals vs power, there are few business-types that I'd be very confident in, regardless of what their flip-floppery on immigration might or may not be.  Rand Paul is the closest thing to principled in the Repub line-up as far as I can tell, with everyone else a distant turd .

But a truly principled non-RINO Republican would implement austerity and destroy the economy.  Look at Greece.

MachineGhost wrote:

moda0306 wrote: This doesn't get called out nearly as easily, so it's IMO much more important to focus on.  If we use this kind of double-speak as a measuring-stick of whether people adhere to principals vs power, there are few business-types that I'd be very confident in, regardless of what their flip-floppery on immigration might or may not be.  Rand Paul is the closest thing to principled in the Repub line-up as far as I can tell, with everyone else a distant turd .

But a truly principled non-RINO Republican would implement austerity and destroy the economy.  Look at Greece.

Greece is being run by the US Republican Party? Wow, that is amazing!

moda0306 wrote:

Libertarian666 wrote:

clacy wrote: Frankly, I would take a non-politico with business experience like Fiorina over a life long political class any day, but it won't happen.

Business experience such as almost destroying a major tech company with her incompetent management? No, thanks.

+1

++1

I think if the Republicans are smart they will nominate Carly Fiorina because she is the only hope they have to defeat Hillary.

For the record, I don't think Republicans are smart. They only think they are.

From now until the distant future as far as my eye can see I think you have to be either black, a woman, or possibly gay to win the presidency. No white males need apply. As for a Hispanic, like Rubio, well there is really no such thing as a Hispanic race so he probably goes down as white like George Zimmerman unless they can figure out how to market it to the masses better.

madbean2 wrote:

moda0306 wrote:

Libertarian666 wrote: Business experience such as almost destroying a major tech company with her incompetent management? No, thanks.

+1

++1

I think if the Republicans are smart they will nominate Carly Fiorina because she is the only hope they have to defeat Hillary.

For the record, I don't think Republicans are smart. They only think they are.

From now until the distant future as far as my eye can see I think you have to be either black, a woman, or possibly gay to win the presidency. No white males need apply. As for a Hispanic, like Rubio, well there is really no such thing as a Hispanic race so he probably goes down as white like George Zimmerman unless they can figure out how to market it to the masses better.

++1? Incrementing the constant "1" is likely to cause serious problems in a program. I didn't think you could do that any more, although it was possible in ancient versions of FORTRAN.

As for your statement about the requirement for future presidential winners: I don't think so. At this point we have had exactly one person elected who isn't a white male, and his performance hasn't exactly been tremendously impressive. The only reason he won either time was that his opponents were very weak.

So now the black president box has been checked off. Is the "woman" box next to be checked? Maybe, but only if the Rs nominate another very weak candidate, which of course they have every right to do; they certainly have plenty of them!

$1 = 1;
$++;



Maybe we're just entering the era of perpetually weak candidates, spurred on by the requirement that everyone be or impersonate a narcissistic celebrity. Bush, Kerry, McCain, Obama, Romney, Clinton, and most of the current Republican pack have all seemed like very bad candidates to me, who all try to blow with the political winds, have extremely unappealing records, and orchestrate billion-dollar marketing campaigns that naturally call into question just how likable and qualified they actually are if they need to spend the GDP of a small African nation to convince people of it.

Libertarian666 wrote: So now the black president box has been checked off. Is the "woman" box next to be checked? Maybe, but only if the Rs nominate another very weak candidate, which of course they have every right to do; they certainly have plenty of them!

But the R's don't have any non-weak candidates.  That's the problem.  None of them inspire "Yes We Can!" like Obama did.  Please don't bring up Ron Paul or Rand Paul -- they're extremists and extremists don't get elected except in SHTF scenarios.

Why must every election always be about picking the lesser of two evils?  It feels like a conspiracy.

Has a third party made its appearance yet?  It might still be too early.  I suspect it won't happen until after 2015.75 when another economic SHTF hits.  It'll have to be some really pissed off people to mount a campaign so fast in the remaining time.

Libertarian666 wrote: Sorry, but Rand Paul is by far their strongest candidate, and can beat Hillary.
Other than that, you're right. :-)

You're being irrational.  Self-identifying with a candidate that affirms your ideology doesn't increase the probabilities of the candidate winning.  We have to live in a society where other opinions count, despite what you personally want to believe or live as.

Neglect of probability: The tendency to completely disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty.

Optimism bias: The tendency to be over-optimistic, overestimating favorable and pleasing outcomes (see also wishful thinking, valence effect, positive outcome bias).

Selective perception: The tendency for expectations to affect perception.

Rand Paul certainly has a shot, as he can probably attract more Gen-Xers and Millenials in the general election than any other Republican candidate. However, he has virtually no chance of being palatable enough to the Republican primary crowd to become the candidate. Witness Reub's total revulsion to him. That's not an uncommon reaction from the militarist contingent of the Republican party, and he's got nothing to offer the evangelicals, either. It doesn't help that he looks boyish, not masculine, and he has a whiny, annoying voice. Older people hate that kind of thing.

Pointedstick wrote: Rand Paul certainly has a shot, as he can probably attract more Gen-Xers and Millenials in the general election than any other Republican candidate. However, he has virtually no chance of being palatable enough to the Republican primary crowd to become the candidate. Witness Reub's total revulsion to him. That's not an uncommon reaction from the militarist contingent of the Republican party, and he's got nothing to offer the evangelicals, either. It doesn't help that he looks boyish, not masculine, and he has a whiny, annoying voice. Older people hate that kind of thing.

His shot of winning the nomination is 12.5%.  And his shot of winning the Presidency is just 5%.  Sorry, but I'll take the wisdom of the crowds over the wisdom of one.

Where do those numbers come from?

MachineGhost wrote:

Libertarian666 wrote: Sorry, but Rand Paul is by far their strongest candidate, and can beat Hillary.
Other than that, you're right. :-)

You're being irrational.  Self-identifying with a candidate that affirms your ideology doesn't increase the probabilities of the candidate winning.  We have to live in a society where other opinions count, despite what you personally want to believe or live as.

Neglect of probability: The tendency to completely disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty.

Optimism bias: The tendency to be over-optimistic, overestimating favorable and pleasing outcomes (see also wishful thinking, valence effect, positive outcome bias).

Selective perception: The tendency for expectations to affect perception.

I'm afraid it is you who are being irrational by claiming to know my reasoning.

Of course I would LIKE him to win, as I'm sure he would be the best President of any candidate running. However, my estimate of his chances has nothing to do with whether I agree with him. I agreed with Ron Paul even more, and I knew he had almost no chance to be nominated. Rand, on the other hand, has been playing the Republican game so that he can bypass at least some of the resistance that his father faced.

That said, it is still true that the main obstacle in his way is the Republican establishment. If he gets the nomination, he should be able to beat Hillary by appealing to the anti-war independents and maybe even some open-minded Democrats (assuming there are any such), as she is a neo-con warmonger.

I don't think Arnold Schwarzenegger is running.
Nor Britney Spears.
Clint Eastwood and 50 Cent are also sitting this one out.

Ah well, maybe VP.

Any names on this list grab you for a "Reaganesque" president?

Here is Newsmax’s list of Hollywood's celebrities who, despite their unfashionable politics, have succeeded in show business. Some are formal members of the Republican Party, while others simply speak freely about their conservative or libertarian values.

While it’s impossible to put them all under one specific umbrella, there is one thing they are for certain: Not liberal.

1. Clint Eastwood - Hollywood legend Clint Eastwood kicked off a firestorm of liberal criticism with his latest production, "American Sniper." But Eastwood's conservative credentials go well beyond mere movies. At the 2012 Republican Convention, Eastwood famously and critically addressed an empty chair representing candidate Barack Obama and supported GOP candidate Mitt Romney. In an interview with the Daily Mail, Eastwood, 84, once said, "I became more of a libertarian. Let’s leave everybody alone, quit screwing with everybody and don’t over-regulate."

2. Shannen Doherty - "Beverly Hills 90210" and "Charmed" star Shannen Doherty once termed herself a "conservative" who was an "avid" supporter of Ronald Reagan, and commented, "I realize that the majority of people in the entertainment business happen to be Democrats. I have no problem with that. And they should have no problem with the fact that I'm a Republican."

3. Robert Downey Jr. - Star of the "Iron Man" and "Sherlock Holmes" franchises, Robert Downey Jr. is an avowed conservative who told The New York Times in 2009, "I have a really interesting political point of view, and it’s not always something I say too loud at dinner tables here, but you can’t go from a $2,000-a-night suite at La Mirage to a penitentiary and really understand it and come out a liberal."

4. Melissa Joan Hart - Actress Melissa Joan Hart, star of "Sabrina The Teenage Witch," says that when she supported Mitt Romney, "I got called every name in the book. It schooled me in the fact that you just don't talk about politics in Hollywood. It is sort of like a blacklist. It's a little scary."

5. Kelsey Grammer - "Frasier" star Kelsey Grammer backed Rudy Giuliani for mayor of New York and founded the now-defunct RightNetwork, a conservative entertainment company. The actor told Jay Leno during a 2012 appearance that he believes he did not receive an Oscar nomination because "I'm a declared out-of-the-closet Republican in Hollywood."

6. Victoria Jackson - "Saturday Night Live" alumna Victoria Jackson is a very active conservative who supported the presidential candidacies of Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann. She once described her beliefs to Politico as “pro-life, less government, strong military."

7. Dennis Miller - Former "SNL" star Dennis Miller converted from being a Democrat to becoming a well-known conservative pundit with his own daily radio talk show and regular appearances on Fox News' "The O'Reilly Factor."

8. Rob Schneider - Comic Rob Schneider has expressed admiration for former Texas Gov. Rick Perry. The California resident once reportedly said, "I’ve been a lifelong Democrat and I have to switch over because it no longer serves the people of this great state."

9. Patricia Heaton - Christian pro-lifer Patricia Heaton from "Everybody Loves Raymond" publicly took Rush Limbaugh's side in blasting Sandra Fluke over free birth control. She campaigned for the McCain/Palin ticket in 2008 and the Romney/Ryan ticket in 2012.

10. Angie Harmon - "Law and Order" and "Rizzoli and Isles" star Angie Harmon is no fan of Barack Obama. "I’m just not crazy about what he's doing," she said in 2009, according to Fox News. "I do think (Sen. John) McCain would have done a better job."

11. Jerry Bruckheimer - Producer of the "CSI" series and a host of movies such as "Blackhawk Down," Jerry Bruckheimer has supported Republican candidates and told Sean Hannity it has not hurt him in Hollywood. "It is always about the work and if you do good work, people will honor you and work with you again. It is never about your politics."

12. Vince Vaughn - "Wedding Crashers" star Vince Vaughn was an avid supporter of libertarian Ron Paul's presidential candidacies in 2008 and 2012.

"I’ve always been, you know, more conservative than not," he told Adam Carolla in a 2013 interview.

13. Tom Selleck - "Magnum P.I." star Tom Selleck endorsed Sen. John McCain for president in 2008 and is a board member of the National Rifle Association

"It's not that conservatives don't care," Selleck said. "We do. We just have different answers than liberals do. It's a difference of the mind, not of the heart."

14. James Woods - Award-winning actor James Woods once said, "I think Barack Obama is a threat to the integrity and future of the Republic. This President is a true abomination." Woods has taken to Twitter on many occasions with a stream of conservative postings, adding, "I don’t expect to work again."

15. Jon Voight - Actor Jon Voight switched from liberal to conservative and has said in the past that "economically, we're headed for disaster. And politically, philosophically, we've been raided in the United States by the left."

16. Gary Sinise - A major supporter of the military, Gary Sinise has traveled to entertain U.S. troops in Afghanistan, Europe, Asia, and Guantanamo Bay, and started the Gary Sinese Foundation to help America's military members and families. The "Forrest Gump" star also is a founding member of Friends of Abe, a Hollywood conservative group.

17. Bruce Willis - "Die Hard" star Bruce Willis denies the label "Republican," claiming to dislike both parties, but has espoused conservative ideals, including opposing gun control and blasting the 75 percent French "millionaire's tax."

"I think that you can’t start to pick apart anything out of the Bill of Rights without thinking that it’s all going to become undone," Willis said in a 2013 interview, according to Last Resistance.

18. Adam Sandler - Funnyman Adam Sandler is a registered Republican and once donated $2,100 to Rudy Giuliani's campaign for president. He also performed at the 2004 Republican Convention.

19. Chuck Norris - Tough guy actor Chuck Norris of "Walker, Texas Ranger" fame is a committed Christian who supported GOP candidate Mike Huckabee in 2008 and regularly writes conservative columns for World Net Daily. In 2012, Norris recorded a video aimed at evangelicals urging them to vote against Obama.

20. Gerald Molen - "Schindler's List" producer Gerald Molen supported Romney over Obama and once told IndieWire, "I’ve always been basically a fiscal conservative. Today, those on the right have a tendency to hide their politics because the left is vindictive."

21. Stacy Dash - "Clueless" star Stacy Dash was widely blasted when she voiced her support for Mitt Romney over Obama, posting on Twitter, "Vote for Romney. The only choice for your future." Dash's conservative leanings led her to sign on as a Fox News contributor last year.

22. Robert Duvall - "The Godfather" and "The Judge" star Robert Duvall backed Mitt Romney in 2012 and narrated a video for the Republican National Convention in 2008. He also raised $800,000 for Romney and appeared on stage with Sarah Palin and John McCain at a New Mexico rally.

23. Gene Simmons - "Kiss" rocker Gene Simmons publicly supported Mitt Romney in 2012.

"The 1 percent provides all the jobs for everybody else. If the one percent didn’t exist, there would be chaos and the American economy would drop dead. I don’t remember the last poor person who gave me a job," he told The San Diego Union-Tribune in a July 2014 interview.

He's also said of Obama, "I think that our president is not being a leader."

24. Dwayne Johnson - Wrestling and acting star Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson performed at the 2000 Republican Convention, expressed admiration for President Reagan, and said he hopes for a political career when his acting days are done.

25. LL Cool J - Rapper LL Cool J backed former GOP New York Gov. George Pataki in 2002 and attended the Republican Convention in 2004, where he supported Sen. John McCain.

26. Arnold Schwarzenegger - "Terminator" star and Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger served two terms as the governor of California. Describing himself as a fiscal conservative and a social moderate, his pro-choice abortion stance and support for gun control and stem cell research made some conservatives uncomfortable with the GOP governor.

27. Sylvester Stallone - "Rambo" and "Rocky" franchise star Sylvester Stallone has long been regarded as a hardcore conservative, announcing his support for McCain in 2008. He's a registered Republican, although his strong advocacy for gun control earned him a place on the NRA's "enemy list."

28. Pat Boone - Longtime singer and one-time teen idol Pat Boone, well known as a conservative Christian, has called Obama a "Marxist" and insists that the president is a Kenyan-born Muslim. He campaigned for Ronald Reagan and recorded voter drive messages for McCain in 2008. In 2011, Boone received a lifetime achievement award from the Conservative Political Action Conference.

29. James Caan - "The Godfather" star James Caan told Fox News in 2010, "I'm an ultra conservative. I'm not a GD Hollywood liberal. I'm not." He has said he is a fan of Fox News and only watches Bill O'Reilly. He once told Larry King, "I am, at the present time . . . a conservative."

30. Susan Lucci - "All My Children" soap star Susan Lucci is one of Hollywood's outspoken conservatives. A registered Republican, Lucci held fundraising events for New York City GOP Mayor Rudy Giuliani. However, she also is a converted supporter of LGBT rights, since her daughter, Bianca, came out as gay in 2000.

Pointedstick wrote: Where do those numbers come from?

Prediction markets.