Gyroscopic Investing

Watch it and weep: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

Apology in advance: I am an automation engineer, so you can blame me.

Interesting video. Thanks for posting. Perhaps this is when the Citizen's Dividend will start being pushed forward as we then start to have massive amounts of the population being unemployable.

I actually think that a citizen's dividend may not really go far enough. It's basically a band-aid on the "purchasing power comes from production" system we have. The automated future implies that the logic of that system will come crumbling down as more and more people have nothing productive to offer--or rather, nothing productive to offer on a consistent enough basis to constitute a steady income. Rather, I expect that at some point, a new system will arise whereby basic food, housing, transportation, medical care, consumer goods, education, and of course a wide variety of entertainment will be freely available to all such that most people have almost no need of money. The people who want anything beyond that can brave the job market or produce luxury goods, entertainment, or services.

It sort of gets into the realm of sci-fi, and of course there have been countless works of futurist fiction about this sort of thing.

I also sort of think it hinges on whether robot/holodeck sex is free or paid.

OK, so not to be Mr. Shallow or anything, but what does this mean for investors? More specifically, for my own selfish purposes, what does it mean for investors over the next 40 years?

barrett wrote: OK, so not to be Mr. Shallow or anything, but what does this mean for investors? More specifically, for my own selfish purposes, what does it mean for investors over the next 40 years?

Investing in companies that do robot stuff very well (like manufacturing), and investing in careers that robots can't do very well (like biotech engineering, or robotics, or surgery, in-house teachers)

Pointedstick wrote: Watch it and weep: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

Very well-put together video with good pacing. Another point for Ray Kurzweil and Marvin Minksy. Minus one for Roger Penrose.
I can't hear this guy ever take a breath. I don't know if that means he's got a really good mic or if he's mastered circular breathing. Maybe it's just my hearing.

Well, I'll say it again: I hope that the machines give us humans a pleasant retirement when they put us out to pasture as laid out in Hans Moravec's book, Robot, and not something like Terminator. But they *will* take our jobs and send us to retirement, that's for certain. I would like to think that they'll remember us fondly when the sun burns out and they have moved on.

Apology in advance: I am an automation engineer, so you can blame me.

Nah, you're just another cog and as such, blameless.

barrett wrote: OK, so not to be Mr. Shallow or anything, but what does this mean for investors?

Hold on, let me consult my investbot. 

oh- posted this last week, by the way:
http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/ot ... ouncement/

dualstow wrote: oh- posted this last week, by the way:
http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/ot ... ouncement/

Missed it the first time. This is from that link:

"Large corporations such as McDonald’s and Wal-Mart have been using the threat of “automated workers” for years to keep wages low and suppress union growth within their stores, but have so far been unsuccessful in automating the “customer service” portion of their operations."

I don't know how many of you shop at Wal-Mart but I never realized they offered any kind of customer service. All I ever get is "if you didn't see it over there in the X section, that probably means that we don't have it." Also, they make it easy to return crap products that don't work.

And seriously, how does one invest for the mid to long term? Will gold be valuable in this new world?  Are the bots strongly deflationary? Apart from certain sectors that Greg mentions, will stocks be a viable option? Who will have money to bid prices up?

I know PS touched on this a bit:

Pointedstick wrote: Rather, I expect that at some point, a new system will arise whereby basic food, housing, transportation, medical care, consumer goods, education, and of course a wide variety of entertainment will be freely available to all such that most people have almost no need of money. The people who want anything beyond that can brave the job market or produce luxury goods, entertainment, or services.

But give me something actionable. The 60% Unemployed Portfolio?

dualstow wrote: I can't hear this guy ever take a breath. I don't know if that means he's got a really good mic or if he's mastered circular breathing. Maybe it's just my hearing.

I can usually tell when you are joking, Dualstow. Not so sure on this one. What makes you think that's an actual human speaking?

barrett wrote: But give me something actionable. The 60% Unemployed Portfolio?

It's possible that we're one of the last generations that won't live like house cats. As long as we don't end up like the humans in that book Med Tex has brought up, With Folded Hands. (Or was that wildaboutharry? I'm sorry, I can't remember).

It's going to be an interesting ride, but who knows how to invest based on that? Ten years ago I read about investing in the aging population, so Estee Lauder (cosmetics) and Stryker (artificial hips). Fine, but who would've thought oil and tobacco would continue to do so well while tech stocks would crumble in 2000 after a bubble? Maybe it's best to pick a few favorites (Google/Alphabet) and leave the rest to a broad index.

(Barrett)

dualstow wrote: I can't hear this guy ever take a breath. I don't know if that means he's got a really good mic or if he's mastered circular breathing. Maybe it's just my hearing.

(Barrett)I can usually tell when you are joking, Dualstow. Not so sure on this one. What makes you think that's an actual human speaking?

I was 1/2 joking and now I can't tell if you're joking. 

It's pure speculation on my behalf, but I suspect that the robot unemployment world will be marked by heavy deflation as costs of all sorts fall. Labor costs, manufacturing costs, profits… you name it. Probably the stocks of companies that make and service the kinds of robots that overtly replace human labor will skyrocket too.

If my probably wrong predictions turn out to be right, it's likely that the robot future simply won't feature money as such a central element as does our world today. Let's say you're a highly intelligent and productive member of society like the members of this board are, and you want to "retire early". You work for 15 years and amass, say, the equivalent of $800k. That can sustain $32k/yr. But what do you actually need to spend this money on? Your basic food, medical care, consumer goods, and entertainment are all free and "good enough". You can get from place to place via free public transit or cheap rentable self-driving cars easily enough. What do you actually spend the money on? Pretty much just luxuries. You probably don't need anywhere near as much as $800k. It might be a little bit more like a feudal, medieval world in which the people who needed and cared for money the most were the wealthy.

I think it's interesting that things like cellphones have been democratized to the point that homeless people in my town have them. If that spreads to food and health care in the future, then I gleefully welcome our future robot overlords.

I'd be happy to sit at home or in a park -- think of all the parks we're going to have -- and online-chat with Frugal.

I figure I'll probably need a secure compound defended by combat drones to keep out all the riff raff. So that's probably gonna run me a fair bit of change.

Kriegsspiel wrote: I figure I'll probably need a secure compound defended by combat drones to keep out all the riff raff. So that's probably gonna run me a fair bit of change.

http://3dprint.com/12933/3d-printed-castle-complete/


[img width=400]http://3dprint.com/wp-content/uploads/2 ... astle1.jpg[/img]

My first thought when I saw that was of rich nerdy parents who wanted to get a castle for their little princess.

Pointedstick wrote: $32k/yr. But what do you actually need to spend this money on? Your basic food, medical care, consumer goods, and entertainment are all free and "good enough". You can get from place to place via free public transit or cheap rentable self-driving cars easily enough. What do you actually spend the money on? Pretty much just luxuries. You probably don't need anywhere near as much as $800k. It might be a little bit more like a feudal, medieval world in which the people who needed and cared for money the most were the wealthy.

Thank gawd for outer space exploration or we'd all die of boredom!

One thing that won't change is envy.  So spend all the superfluous money on plastic surgery, brand name clothes, designer watches, etc.

Maybe this is a good time to re-plug season one of the Swedish show, Äkta Människor. A really interesting look at humans being replaced by androids in all aspects of life. C'mon, watch it. I worked hard on typing those umlauts!

MangoMan wrote: Hahaha, if the democrats stay in power [a virtual given considering the current immigration system], anyone who is a productive member of society will be expected to work and then give all of their "excess" earnings back to the government to help support everyone else. 

Naw, we'd eliminate taxes long before that point.  Taxes only make sense on scarce resources and when money is a commodity.

I don't want to say it's "a thing" because I dislike that term, but there is a wiki page called Technological Unemployment - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technolog ... employment

Saw it on a reddit AMA (Ask Me Anything) session with Prof Stephen Hawking on AI.

[quote=http://newsexaminer.net/food/mcdonalds- ... by-robots/]After seeing a decline in earnings for the first time in nine years, McDonald’s plans to do something no other restaurant of its kind has ever done before; open a store run entirely by robots.

The store is set to open July 4th in Phoenix, Arizona once the state-of-the-art robot remodel is complete. The restaurant will still employ a small team to insure all of the robots are working correctly, the food and cleaning supplies remain stocked along with removing the money collected by the robots. Visitors to the restaurant will see these new robots working in harmony at a speed of 50 times faster than the average human employee, with no chance of error. If the test launch for the store is a success, people can expect to see robots located in every store all over the country and at restaurants around the world.[/quote]

[quote=http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/08/25 ... 38486.html]In what may be the shape of fast-food retail to come, McDonald’s has begun rolling out self-serve kiosks at locations in Canada, but the company says the move is not a threat to job security.[/quote]

dualstow wrote: Maybe this is a good time to re-plug season one of the Swedish show, Äkta Människor. A really interesting look at humans being replaced by androids in all aspects of life. C'mon, watch it. I worked hard on typing those umlauts!

recommendation taken, watching first season now...  exceptionally high quality show, lots of depth and twists and turns
... thanks...  this is worth seeing..

MachineGhost wrote:

http://newsexaminer.net/food/mcdonalds-to-open-restaurant-run-by-robots/ wrote:After seeing a decline in earnings for the first time in nine years, McDonald’s plans to do something no other restaurant of its kind has ever done before; open a store run entirely by robots.

The store is set to open July 4th in Phoenix, Arizona once the state-of-the-art robot remodel is complete. The restaurant will still employ a small team to insure all of the robots are working correctly, the food and cleaning supplies remain stocked along with removing the money collected by the robots. Visitors to the restaurant will see these new robots working in harmony at a speed of 50 times faster than the average human employee, with no chance of error. If the test launch for the store is a success, people can expect to see robots located in every store all over the country and at restaurants around the world.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/08/25/mcdonalds-self-serve-canada_n_8038486.html wrote:In what may be the shape of fast-food retail to come, McDonald’s has begun rolling out self-serve kiosks at locations in Canada, but the company says the move is not a threat to job security.

http://www.snopes.com/media/notnews/robotmcdonalds.asp

Looks like this was fake for Arizona perhaps.

l82start wrote:

dualstow wrote: Maybe this is a good time to re-plug season one of the Swedish show, Äkta Människor. A really interesting look at humans being replaced by androids in all aspects of life. C'mon, watch it. I worked hard on typing those umlauts!

recommendation taken, watching first season now...  exceptionally high quality show, lots of depth and twists and turns
... thanks...  this is worth seeing..

I'm glad you like it! I have heard that season 2 isn't as good.
Not sure, as I haven't seen 2 yet.

dualstow wrote: I'm glad you like it! I have heard that season 2 isn't as good.
Not sure, as I haven't seen 2 yet.

What does the title mean in English?

MachineGhost wrote:

dualstow wrote: I'm glad you like it! I have heard that season 2 isn't as good.
Not sure, as I haven't seen 2 yet.

What does the title mean in English?

real humans