Gyroscopic Investing

Although socialist Democrat candidate Bernie Sanders appeals to the young and idealistic and can possibly defeat Hillary because she is so flawed, he has one major problem. He is an honest Democrat. He is a socialist and an open borders guy and admits to it. This doesn't work in general elections as Democrats always have to conceal their true motives in order to achieve and hold power. This makes him unelectable, a George McGovern in waiting. Hence if this trend of him gaining on Hillary and possibly beating her in Iowa and New Hampshire, the Democrats will have to derail him. Joe Biden are you ready?

Why would the Democrats want to derail Bernie Sanders, if he proves more popular than Clinton?

Hillary is pretty much "open borders" too.  She's just too smart to be going around talking about trying to get a single payer health plan passed.

WiseOne wrote: Why would the Democrats want to derail Bernie Sanders, if he proves more popular than Clinton?

Hillary is pretty much "open borders" too.  She's just too smart to be going around talking about trying to get a single payer health plan passed.

Because he is unelectable except to the Democrat base, WiseOne. He would lose in a landslide.

Actually, a quick google search finds that Sanders is opposed to open borders, and has said so on the record.

The primary/general election thing isn't limited to D - it seems that more hard core folks in either party are more likely to vote in primaries, which drives primaries towards more extreme candidates.  Seems to me that the solution for that would be for more people from both parties to vote in primaries.

Reub wrote: Because he is unelectable except to the Democrat base, WiseOne. He would lose in a landslide.

I have to agree. Very interesting guy and a good man, fine for Vermont, and unelectable as U.S. President.

I also agree. I like the guy for a wide variety of reasons, but Reub has it right: Trump would obliterate him in the general election. If I were a Democratic insider I'd be shitting my pants right now.

Haha! I'd take that bet!!

What an absolutely fascinating election this promises to be.

Sanders definitely electable. I don't see congress shifting, so probably not too dramatic changes in laws.

Trump with a republican congress?

A Republican congress that hates him and wants him to fail.

Reub wrote: A Republican congress that hates him and wants him to fail.

Nah, he's already one of them and seems to be able to work with them okay. The one who a Republican congress would hate and want to see fail is Hillary. I would expect Sanders to perform significantly better with a Republican congress than Hillary.

These comments are fascinating to me, and remind me of the difficulty in predicting things (rather a PP idea, no?)

Sanders is clearly to the left of Hillary Clinton (or Obama, for that matter), so I don't see any reason why a right leaning R Congress would work with him any better than with either of those two.

The predictions of a Trump win remind me of similar predictions of a Romney win, and I think/hope they're similarly wrong.  For the record, I did pretty well predicting that one, as an Obama win by a small margin.

jafs wrote: These comments are fascinating to me, and remind me of the difficulty in predicting things (rather a PP idea, no?)

Sanders is clearly to the left of Hillary Clinton (or Obama, for that matter), so I don't see any reason why a right leaning R Congress would work with him any better than with either of those two.

I think it has a lot more to do with personality and familiarity than it does ideology. Republicans have hated Hillary for decades. Hate. Hate hate hate. She could become a Republican and they'd still distrust her. But Bernie seems to have relatively collegial relationships with his fellow senators, despite his positions.

Pointedstick wrote:

Reub wrote: A Republican congress that hates him and wants him to fail.

Nah, he's already one of them and seems to be able to work with them okay. The one who a Republican congress would hate and want to see fail is Hillary. I would expect Sanders to perform significantly better with a Republican congress than Hillary.

PS, did you take note of the Republican response to The State of the Union last week where Republican governor Nikki Haley spent much of her time taking swipes at Trump instead of Obama? I don't think that was by accident.

Did any of you catch the Democratic debates last night?

Hillary made my skin crawl as usual.  Sanders spent most of his time painting himself as extremely liberal, e.g. emphasizing his D- NRA rating.  Also take a look at his immigration platform online.  It sounds pretty open borders to me.  Apart from suggesting that e-verify could be a good thing, it's mainly about extending citizenship to all current illegal immigrants plus family members of anyone already here legally, and shutting down many border security measures.  The admission of family members is particularly worrisome, because especially in combination with birthright citizenship and ongoing amnesty, that's instituting a loophole in the immigration laws about the size of, well, Mexico.

I can't see Sanders getting several of his key policies through Congress.  I do think the man is talking sense when it comes to health care though.  To be honest, even though a "Medicare for all" system would be widely reviled on the Republican side and would make health care a less attractive career option than ever, it's the only solution I can see to ever-rising health care costs - especially if you include collateral damage like the millions of personal bankrupties each year attributed to medical costs.  Well, that and dealing with the importation of millions of low-income producers from friendly nations to the south.

I quite possibly will incur the wrath of many on this board by saying I like Bernie.  He seems to be a no BS guy, and whether you agree with his positions or not, he seems to be a guy who could be trusted.

If it were Trump vs. Sanders, it would be a tossup for me.  Trump vs. Hilary, I vote Trump.  Don't know 100% why, but I just can't vote for Hilary. 

I disagree that he is unelectable.  I think he'd hold his own pretty well against the bluster of Trump in debates.

I agree that he can be trusted. Trusted to complete the destruction of our once great nation.

As far as electability goes, think George McGovern on steroids.

I caught the debate. Total snoozefest. Hillary felt particularly grating to me and they all emphasized disappointing positions on guns that will harm them in the general election. Disappointing to see Sanders jump on that bandwagon. And they ended it early again! These debates must be real snoozers. An ill omen for the Democrats.

Hillary had a particularly novel position on health care, simultaneously saying that Obamacare is great and admitting that it failed in virtually every goal (keep costs down, insure everyone, etc). That was pretty funny.

Pointedstick wrote: Hillary had a particularly novel position on health care, simultaneously saying that Obamacare is great and admitting that it failed in virtually every goal (keep costs down, insure everyone, etc). That was pretty funny.

Didn't she say at one point that health costs were lower as a result of Obamacare?  I thought she was trying to say it hasn't achieved 100% success because it hasn't been completely implemented yet.  It made me choke.

I wonder if she's seen Obama's approval ratings.  She's hanging her success on his coattails.  Not smart.

Pointedstick wrote:

jafs wrote: These comments are fascinating to me, and remind me of the difficulty in predicting things (rather a PP idea, no?)

Sanders is clearly to the left of Hillary Clinton (or Obama, for that matter), so I don't see any reason why a right leaning R Congress would work with him any better than with either of those two.

I think it has a lot more to do with personality and familiarity than it does ideology. Republicans have hated Hillary for decades. Hate. Hate hate hate. She could become a Republican and they'd still distrust her. But Bernie seems to have relatively collegial relationships with his fellow senators, despite his positions.

Everyone in Congress hates Ted Cruz as well.

Obama's approval ratings are about where many presidents have been in their second term, last time I checked, and in the 40-50% range.

The original plan with the ACA included mandatory expansion of Medicaid by the states, and clearly if that had happened, the whole thing would look a bit different than it does now.

In some ways, the ACA is working well at achieving it's goals, and in other ways, not as well, unsurprisingly for a program of it's scope.

You could be right about the timing - I don't remember that clearly.

The latest forecast of a Trump win was posted immediately following a poll showing Sanders beating Trump in the general election.

TennPaGa wrote:

jafs wrote: You could be right about the timing - I don't remember that clearly.

The latest forecast of a Trump win was posted immediately following a poll showing Sanders beating Trump in the general election.

I take such polls at this stage to be a fairly decent qualitative marker.  And so, while I'm not sure if Sanders would beat Trump in November 2016 (a lot can happen in 9+ months), I do think it means that people saying "Sanders is unelectable" are strongly overstating things.

Agreed. I don't think he will beat Trump, but I definitely believe that he can. It doesn't seem far-fetched at all.

Pointedstick wrote:

TennPaGa wrote:

jafs wrote: You could be right about the timing - I don't remember that clearly.

The latest forecast of a Trump win was posted immediately following a poll showing Sanders beating Trump in the general election.

I take such polls at this stage to be a fairly decent qualitative marker.  And so, while I'm not sure if Sanders would beat Trump in November 2016 (a lot can happen in 9+ months), I do think it means that people saying "Sanders is unelectable" are strongly overstating things.

Agreed. I don't think he will beat Trump, but I definitely believe that he can. It doesn't seem far-fetched at all.

The basic complaint that I think the voters have is that they are tired of our government being whored out to the moneyed interests in our society.  The only two candidates who have any political brothel raiding credibility are Trump and Sanders, even though the idea of Trump shutting down any kind of brothel seems sort of counterintuitive.

I'll stand by my statement that Sanders is unelectable in a general election. Hopefully we'll find out.