Gyroscopic Investing

Golden Butterfly is up 5.42% on the year. The only thing under performing is the small cap value portion. Did great last year but not this one. Wonder why that is.

Gold is the winner so far. If it keeps up I might even break even on all my gold some day.

Long Bonds continue to amaze. Like Mark Twain said, their death seems to always be greatly exaggerated.

Cash is trash - that saying couldn't be truer right now. Wonder if it's ever going earn anything again in my lifetime (10 years at current avg life expectancy).

No such luck here in Europe. My Euro PP is +0.55% for 2017, not helped by the Euro's strength at $1.19.

If I could guarantee the current return every year, I would quit my job right now.

My PP variant is up over 11% right now. I have even finally learned not to stress out when gold drops.

YTD on my holdings. VINEX (emerg. mkt) far and away the winner.

Add UUP and we'll see why that is the case
Something is a little unnerving with GLD and TLT performance. What am I missing?

budd, are you thinking they should be in lockstep and that TLT's return should be higher? I assume a lot has to do with gold's apparent higher volatility. 10 year comparison shows GLD can vary significantly from TLT

As for UUP, well we now have a president who extended the debt ceiling and is saying we should get away from it completely, so print away...!

Sorry for leaving you in the dark to guess.

While I want GLD and TLT to go to the moon, something tells me their outperformance is a sign of economic trouble ahead in the US. EU is full speed ahead for now.

I totally agree there. This is an interesting perspective:

https://mishtalk.com/2017/09/07/10-year ... -bank-cio/

Snippet:

Asset allocation

We have had the same positioning since Q1’17 (we use a Permanent Portfolio approach):

Equities: 25% (respecting the momentum)
Fixed income: 50% (see attached memo)
Commodities: 25% (overweight gold and silver)
Cash: zero
We have recently reduced some of the risk as we are now:

Equities: 10% (mainly gold mining stocks)
Fixed Income: 25% (neutral weight)
Commodities: 25% (neutral weight)
Cash: 40% (overweight)

The cash weighting, of course, is “too high” but we want to wait out September and Q4 to see how the credit impulse plays out. It’s been a good investor year and as J.P Morgan once said when asked how he became rich, “I took my profit too early”

And I am exactly $2.92/ounce away from gold being dead even for me across my 9 years of investing in it. It has been a long freaking wait.

Sorry Corto et al. but the true surge came after markets opened when Gold/LTT's faced the wrath of a catastrophe that didn't come to pass.

Same shit...run up then sell off...

Ehh, it was expected, no matter the outcome. No missile shot by NK, Irma not as bad on Florida as expected.

Even if both those things did happen, gold was due for a breather.

I started the PP in Feb 2014. This is a snapshot of my IRA account. Notice what happened at that time...

The y axis is account value (bottom is not $0, just the lowest account level)

I need to stop any sort of complaining about gold or anything. All I am allowed to complain about is my investing habits prior to 2014...

I just missed it, started in September 2012.

Happy Thanksgiving, all. PP again at new high for my allocation (11.47%), the last being on Sept 8.

And this is with gold, silver and TLT lower now than in Sept.

Gets easier and easier to distance myself emotionally from gold.

Cortopassi wrote:Happy Thanksgiving, all. PP again at new high for my allocation (11.47%), the last being on Sept 8.

And this is with gold, silver and TLT lower now than in Sept.

Gets easier and easier to distance myself emotionally from gold.

Haha, I would believe the last comment if AU wasn't up nicely on the day
I hate Gold, but will always hold at established percentages.

If you hold physical gold, then you may not hate your gold when a massive solar eruption knocks the power out for 6 months and resets the global financial system ... or (name some other potential disaster with the same effect).

Isn't that one of the reasons to hold gold? We don't have to like it every day or every minute. Kind of like being married say.

stuper1 wrote:
Isn't that one of the reasons to hold gold? We don't have to like it every day or every minute. Kind of like being married say.

That is a good analogy...!

And another new high, even with gold and TLT languishing. Bodes well, hopefully, when it all reverses.

Thank you for stocks, which I continue to watch incredulously as they go up day after day after day. So many bear analysts have been blown out of the water by this amazing rally. I don't know what happened in September, but something changed with the markets making them diverge higher. See below for my PP return (blue) vs. S&P (gold).

Can't wait to see the breathless reporting when the Dow hits 25,000.

Lookin’ good, Corto.

Well, we hit 25,000. Seemingly on the way to 30,000 this year.

Against all the pundits, stocks are not even taking a breather yet. More hair being pulled out somewhere.

And gold isn't slacking either.

But then there are comments like this. Really. Mere???? In a little more than a month? Mere???

----------------

"Dow 25,000 is a mere 4.2% advance from 24,000 at the end of November," said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com. "With the positive fundamentals – an expanding economy, continued job growth, still low interest rates and tax reform that promises to boost corporate earnings – it's no surprise to see the market continuing to climb."

I wonder if gold's rise is due to growing skepticism about Bitcoin. I'm sure Bitcoin took some potential buyers away from gold, and maybe they're starting to filter back. There's still a ton of Bitcoin madness out there, but maybe that's it's own worst enemy. A high profile hack or two of a Bitcoin wallet site will have an amplified effect on that market.

If so, then the PP will benefit from both the effects of tax reform and the above...could be a very good year! We'll see. And as always, let's predict that bonds will tank.

Jeremy Grantham of GMO has actually put out a target for the top of the S&P 500. He thinks it will Top out at 3400 to 3700 within 9 to 18 months from now, then a bear market.

ochotona wrote:Jeremy Grantham of GMO has actually put out a target for the top of the S&P 500. He thinks it will Top out at 3400 to 3700 within 9 to 18 months from now, then a bear market.

Puke...worth as much as soil, probably less.

ochotona wrote:Jeremy Grantham of GMO has actually put out a target for the top of the S&P 500. He thinks it will Top out at 3400 to 3700 within 9 to 18 months from now, then a bear market.

I look forward to seeing GMO sell their stocks at the peak in accordance with Grantham's prediction.

Tyler wrote:I look forward to seeing GMO sell their stocks at the peak in accordance with Grantham's prediction.

All I know is, I just read about the Ulcer Index at portfolio charts and I feel pretty comfy.