Dr. Dooms Portfolio

[doodle]

Marc Fabers portfolio in a recent interview came very close to sounding like the permanent portfolio. He even mentioned buying 30 year bonds which Ive never heard him say before: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000385650

[screwtape]

Yes, that did sound a lot like the PP except for the real estate part. Don't know if anybody ever asked him but I'm sure he has heard of the PP strategy and wonder what he thinks of it.

[MachineGhost]

Yes, that did sound a lot like the PP except for the real estate part. Don't know if anybody ever asked him but I'm sure he has heard of the PP strategy and wonder what he thinks of it.

Considering he's a huckster that needs to sell a proprietary edge like Ray Dalio, I wouldn't hold my breath.

Maybe I shall backtest it now as I inquired in the other thread.  He actually says "fixed income, securities and cash" and "precious metals — gold, silver", so I've equal weighted them:

Code: Select all

	FABER	PP
1968	6.04%	8.95%
1969	-3.16%	-5.96%
1970	5.43%	8.07%
1971	6.65%	11.37%
1972	18.75%	19.44%
1973	13.39%	13.83%
1974	9.88%	12.23%
1975	8.23%	6.15%
1976	11.13%	10.82%
1977	6.61%	5.31%
1978	14.10%	11.83%
1979	78.82%	37.92%
1980	5.93%	13.30%
1981	-7.89%	-5.18%
1982	18.17%	22.46%
1983	3.26%	3.11%
1984	-0.40%	2.65%
1985	14.86%	19.96%
1986	13.00%	18.81%
1987	9.51%	7.06%
1988	4.55%	3.74%
1989	10.36%	14.33%
1990	-2.38%	1.57%
1991	8.81%	11.94%
1992	2.25%	3.39%
1993	13.29%	13.06%
1994	-1.09%	-2.39%
1995	15.65%	19.61%
1996	5.19%	5.09%
1997	12.46%	8.23%
1998	9.56%	12.98%
1999	7.01%	3.26%
2000	0.88%	2.94%
2001	0.10%	0.21%
2002	1.61%	3.13%
2003	16.28%	13.32%
2004	9.55%	5.99%
2005	11.43%	7.79%
2006	13.71%	11.41%
2007	7.49%	13.16%
2008	-9.62%	2.97%
2009	12.51%	5.64%
2010	17.55%	13.38%
2011	3.93%	11.09%
2012	7.90%	6.46%
2013	1.06%	-2.43%
2014	5.72%	10.36%
Total	418.08%	422.39%

P.S.  I see he's cut his long hair.

[Greg]

I assumed Dr. Doom's portfolio would consist of robotics companies, biotech companies, Latverian bonds (short and long), and Vibranium.

[WildAboutHarry]

Geez, I had to google Latverian and Vibranium.

I used to be with it, but then they changed what it was...

[Greg]

Geez, I had to google Latverian and Vibranium.

I used to be with it, but then they changed what it was...

No worries WAH. I'm 27 and fast seeing my descent into obscurity not understanding kid-lingo these days. I look forward to telling youngsters to get off my lawn.

[WildAboutHarry]

Geez, I had to google Latverian and Vibranium.

I used to be with it, but then they changed what it was...

No worries WAH. I'm 27 and fast seeing my descent into obscurity not understanding kid-lingo these days. I look forward to telling youngsters to get off my lawn.

Well, I'm 62 and don't consider I'm descending into obscurity as much as I am running out of brain cells to store all the new stuff in.  Although I can still sing the Sugar Crisp jingle in (near) perfect pitch, word-for-word.

And in CA, we have no lawns anymore to tell youngsters to stay off of.

[Mountaineer]

Geez, I had to google Latverian and Vibranium.

I used to be with it, but then they changed what it was...

No worries WAH. I'm 27 and fast seeing my descent into obscurity not understanding kid-lingo these days. I look forward to telling youngsters to get off my lawn.

Well, I'm 62 and don't consider I'm descending into obscurity as much as I am running out of brain cells to store all the new stuff in.  Although I can still sing the Sugar Crisp jingle in (near) perfect pitch, word-for-word.

And in CA, we have no lawns anymore to tell youngsters to stay off of.

Drink more.  It will kill off the weaker brain cells and leave the stronger ones to assimilate more knowledge.  The more you drink, the smarter you will feel.  This is a key evolutionary "survival of the fittest" strategy, I think from Cheers. 

... Mountaineer

[WildAboutHarry]

[quote=Mountaineer]Drink more.  It will kill off the weaker brain cells and leave the stronger ones to assimilate more knowledge.  The more you drink, the smarter you will feel.  This is a key evolutionary "survival of the fittest" strategy, I think from Cheers.  [/quote]

I am already doing that.  I would hate to think how much worse things would be if I wasn't! 

[MachineGhost]

Well, I'm 62 and don't consider I'm descending into obscurity as much as I am running out of brain cells to store all the new stuff in.  Although I can still sing the Sugar Crisp jingle in (near) perfect pitch, word-for-word.

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[doodle]

This thread is off on an aging tagent now, but on that topic ive always wondered how we age at a molecular or cellular level but at the atomic level such an aging concept doesnt make much sense. Why do we age cellularly if the atomic constituents of cells dont?

[Mountaineer]

This thread is off on an aging tagent now, but on that topic ive always wondered how we age at a molecular or cellular level but at the atomic level such an aging concept doesnt make much sense. Why do we age cellularly if the atomic constituents of cells dont?

Excellent question.  Maybe we just do not yet realize that atomic constituents of cells age or somehow change.  Or maybe there are sub-atomic constituents that we do not yet realize.  Really good question.  Perhaps there is something in play that we do not understand via science or logic. 

... Mountaineer

[MachineGhost]

This thread is off on an aging tagent now, but on that topic ive always wondered how we age at a molecular or cellular level but at the atomic level such an aging concept doesnt make much sense. Why do we age cellularly if the atomic constituents of cells dont?

We actually don't age cellularly.  The body starts to break down like a car that is never maintained.  In theory, there is no reason we can't live indefinitely if all the dysfunctional parts are replaced, the juices are cleaned of toxins/debris and the aberrant epigenetic expressions are reversed.  Many scientists are working on those issues as we speak.  In the meantime, to delay the break down... well, that's the rationale for taking supplements!  Doh.

Incidentally, look at how sickly looking two Big Pharma CEOs are (on the left):

[align=center][/align]

[Mountaineer]

This thread is off on an aging tagent now, but on that topic ive always wondered how we age at a molecular or cellular level but at the atomic level such an aging concept doesnt make much sense. Why do we age cellularly if the atomic constituents of cells dont?

We actually don't age cellularly.  The body starts to break down like a car that is never maintained.  In theory, there is no reason we can't live indefinitely if all the dysfunctional parts are replaced, the juices are cleaned of toxins/debris and the aberrant epigenetic expressions are reversed.  Many scientists are working on those issues as we speak.  In the meantime, to delay the break down... well, that's the rationale for taking supplements!  Doh.

Great idea.  But how do we know with certainty, at least that the odds are greater than 50-50, the supplements will not be found via some as yet unknown mechanism to advance break down?  At one time the iron supplements, X-rays, etc. were thought by some to be great stuff.

... Mountaineer

[MachineGhost]

Great idea.  But how do we know with certainty, at least that the odds are greater than 50-50, the supplements will not be found via some as yet unknown mechanism to advance break down?  At one time the iron supplements, X-rays, etc. were thought by some to be great stuff.

Well, unlike in the last century, we have this new fangled thing called clinical research outcomes and epigenetic assaying & screening to determine the positive or negative effects of any given substance.  If there's a big downside, its the the relative paucity of a lack of human clinical trials with more exotic or newer substances.  The old guard (i.e. multi-vitamin and multi-minerals) has pretty much all been vetted by now.  The iron issue is perplexing but it may just be a case of typical Anglo-Saxon blindness/arrogance.  It's not as if it wasn't known that excess iron was toxic, just no one connected it to the obesity epidemic until last week.