Question for Mathjak107

[stuper1]

Mathjak107,

As you don't think that the Permanent Portfolio's future prospects are very good, I have a question for you.  What specific advice would you give to someone who wants to educate themself and pick an investing strategy?  How do I figure out a strategy that will work for me, including asset allocation and re-balancing rules?  I'm not looking for vague advice.  I'm looking for detailed specifics on how to figure things out for myself.  If that advice includes something like subscribing to a specific newsletter, then fine, I understand you can't give advice from the newsletter, but please tell me the newsletter name so I can subscribe too, if I so choose. 

I'm genuinely curious to see what your specific advice for success looks like.  I understand that each person's situation is different, but what is your advice on how a person can actually figure out what their investing strategy should be in a specific, actionable way.

Thanks!

[mathjak107]

i don't know if the pp is  right or wrong for you . it isn't right for me but as far as what is right for you i could never say .

there are so many details and so much  information that a planner would use to profile you .

i don't even attempt to give one on one advice .

anything i throw out is really group oriented and info more than advice .

the newsletter i refer to is the fidelity insight newsletter .

they run  different models of portfolio's based on your goals , needs and pucker factor .  the models are dynamic and every so often a fund may be swapped out for a better choice going forward .

[ochotona]

stuper, this paperwill give you all the specificity you need for a different plan. I like it for the same reason I was originally drawn to the PP; transparent, data & rule-based, based in non-correlated assets (5, not 4... and one of the 5 can certainly be gold if you wish, though the paper discusses "commodities"). But it is active, trading no more often than once a month, whereas the PP is passive.

[Kbg]

Mathjak107,

As you don't think that the Permanent Portfolio's future prospects are very good, I have a question for you.  What specific advice would you give to someone who wants to educate themself and pick an investing strategy?  How do I figure out a strategy that will work for me, including asset allocation and re-balancing rules?  I'm not looking for vague advice.  I'm looking for detailed specifics on how to figure things out for myself.  If that advice includes something like subscribing to a specific newsletter, then fine, I understand you can't give advice from the newsletter, but please tell me the newsletter name so I can subscribe too, if I so choose. 

I'm genuinely curious to see what your specific advice for success looks like.  I understand that each person's situation is different, but what is your advice on how a person can actually figure out what their investing strategy should be in a specific, actionable way.

Thanks!

Very specific advice: Read every volume of William Bernstein's Investing for Adults series. It will give you a great foundation for making a good decision.

[ochotona]

I am recently also looking at Antonacci's paper, and the risk-on / risk-off signal there seems like it could be better than the 10 month moving average. Fewer whipsaws, faster acting.

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm? ... id=2244633

[rickb]

i don't know if the pp is  right or wrong for you .

Then why do you knock it in every single thread that anyone starts here?

The original question here is this:

As you don't think that the Permanent Portfolio's future prospects are very good, I have a question for you.  What specific advice would you give to someone who wants to educate themself and pick an investing strategy? 

My very strong guess is that the intent here is similar to the challenge that Rob Bennett (the "value informed investing" guy) never responded to at the bogleheads forum.  He relentlessly poked at the BH buy and hold strategy, claiming that if the stock market is currently overvalued (based on, say, the Shiller PE 10) you should get out of the stock market (or at least reduce your exposure) and a "dynamic" (using one of your favorite words) strategy is obviously better than buy and hold.  The problem is, he never offered an actionable strategy that was better than buy and hold (and was ultimately banned).

Now it's your turn.  What, exactly, is your strategy that is better than the PP? 

And no "go with your gut" bullshit (this is not actionable, and people's guts are nearly always exactly wrong).  If your allocation is "dynamic", what exactly are the triggers that should cause you to change your allocation?

I think everyone here has had quite enough of your "info".

Put up or shut up.

[mathjak107]

i talk  talk about the faults in the pp and the fact i do not think it is balanced  for the same reason bernstein does .

i think going forward it is to inefficient with to much spent on insurance .

but that does not mean someone else feels the same .

regardless the faults are there  .

so my question to you is if you don't like my comments why do you read my posts  ?  and no , everyone is not sick  of hearing what i have to say because not everyone has read them yet  . that is obvious from all the e-mails i get thanking me for bringing things to light .

that i why you have ignore .

but in any case i am tired  of the personal attacks so  you can all continue to pat each other on the back , drink the kool aid and continue on believing your own bull shit as total fact and stay in ignorance about certain things .

i am through posting on this forum  .

[MachineGhost]

I am recently also looking at Antonacci's paper, and the risk-on / risk-off signal there seems like it could be better than the 10 month moving average. Fewer whipsaws, faster acting.

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm? ... id=2244633

You seem a little behind.  Go to http://www.alphaarchitect.com/ and register for DIY and you can get the timing signals for most all of this trend following stuff, including dual momentum which they've renamed as Robust Asset Allocation.

I don't recommend their advisory service because they won't allow you to construct a true all weather portfolio, only variations of the IVY-5 which is not robust since the real estate equity (which is NOT a real asset) is only what made it outperform during the past few years.  Advisors are always behind vanguard practitioners like me since they necessarily target the "dumb money".

So far only Hedgeable gets my vote with real money.  And that is more about strategy diversification away from endemic trend following which is rapidly becoming a crowded trade.

[Libertarian666]

i talk  talk about the faults in the pp and the fact i do not think it is balanced  for the same reason bernstein does .

i think going forward it is to inefficient with to much spent on insurance .

but that does not mean someone else feels the same .

regardless the faults are there  .

so my question to you is if you don't like my comments why do you read my posts  ?  and no , everyone is not sick  of hearing what i have to say because not everyone has read them yet  . that is obvious from all the e-mails i get thanking me for bringing things to light .

that i why you have ignore .

but in any case i am tired  of the personal attacks so  you can all continue to pat each other on the back , drink the kool aid and continue on believing your own bull shit as total fact and stay in ignorance about certain things .

i am through posting on this forum  .

Is that a threat or a promise?

[Reub]

i talk  talk about the faults in the pp and the fact i do not think it is balanced  for the same reason bernstein does .

i think going forward it is to inefficient with to much spent on insurance .

but that does not mean someone else feels the same .

regardless the faults are there  .

so my question to you is if you don't like my comments why do you read my posts  ?  and no , everyone is not sick  of hearing what i have to say because not everyone has read them yet  . that is obvious from all the e-mails i get thanking me for bringing things to light .

that i why you have ignore .

but in any case i am tired  of the personal attacks so  you can all continue to pat each other on the back , drink the kool aid and continue on believing your own bull shit as total fact and stay in ignorance about certain things .

i am through posting on this forum  .

mathjak, I would hope that you reconsider. You add a tremendous service to the place and counteract the zombie-like atmosphere present here where dissension is an anathema and dogma prevails over reason.

[lazyboy]

I agree with Reub on this and I would hope that Mj reconsiders maybe addressing and clarifying some of the issues raised by posts on other sites. I've gotten value from his posts. The attacks on Mj may seem to be justified to some but can also seem nasty and narrow minded from my perspective. Going forward maybe there's away to call somebody on their perceived inconsistencies without it becoming personal. Investing is not a belief system but a way to negotiate the real world.