Once we are under $1,000 an ounce in gold, which we are only about $70 away, my job in analyzing the markets will become more difficult. But I will leave you with this thought; if you bought gold today at $1,070 or caught the bottom just under $850 if it got that low, and now it is 5 years down the road and gold is $2500 an ounce or higher, does it matter where you bought?
When did he predict that gold would go almost to $2000, and how long did it take for him to realize that was a fairly significant top?
In other words, if you predict early and often, you will be right sometimes. However, that doesn't mean that you will continue to be right. Read HB's "Why the best laid investment plans usually go wrong" for a lot more on this topic.
I give him credit for being a gold dealer and warning potential clients of downside risk. That's uncommonly decent. I'm sure he got caught unawares like everyone in every industry does when trends and markets shift. But he did claim to call a top successfully in the gold miners, though I had no interest in gold or miners at the time, so I wasn't around to read it.
After all, I first bought gold at around $250 an ounce. It was the ultimate fear trade.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
ochotona wrote:
WHOA. I wish I'd been interested in gold and moving averages back in 2001. Sigh.
Don't worry, I didn't profit from it.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
