The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:00 pm

boglerdude wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:31 pm
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 0&t=260171

Always folks who need to chime in and say "gold is dumb" w/out providing explanations
Gold is a tough sell over there. An impossible sell.
RIP Toots
in NE Syria, a Russian armored vehicle deliberately rammed an American military viehicle, leaving 7 US service members with concussions — the week
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technovelist
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by technovelist » Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:06 am

dualstow wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:00 pm
boglerdude wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:31 pm
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 0&t=260171

Always folks who need to chime in and say "gold is dumb" w/out providing explanations
Gold is a tough sell over there. An impossible sell.
I've tried to wake them up a couple of times by pointing out that Berkshire Hathaway also doesn't pay interest or dividends, so that "isn't an investment" either according to their very limited understand of investing.

Of course all I get back is spluttering about the value of the portfolio Berkshire Hathaway holds, even though in fact the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway have no claim on that portfolio. The only way they can make money is by selling their shares to someone else who also has no claim on the underlying assets.

How exactly is that different from owning gold? Other than that with gold, you actually DO have the underlying asset. ;)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kbg » Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:54 am

The BH folks have some good reasons for their scepticsm. Ultimately we hope gold remains a good store of value and uncorrelated to equities. If it doesn’t, it’s economically a very stupid thing to invest in.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Sun Oct 14, 2018 12:12 pm

IMO the only really serious threat to gold as a store of value would be if someone figures out how to make it in a way that is economical.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by technovelist » Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:22 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Sun Oct 14, 2018 12:12 pm
IMO the only really serious threat to gold as a store of value would be if someone figures out how to make it in a way that is economical.
Correct, but that would imply cheap transmutation, which would probably have numerous other effects that are hard to predict or hedge against.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:30 pm

I get synthetic diamonds but since Au is an element, wouldn’t creating it be akin to synthesizing Carbon? I agree with Tech. When they do that, they might be able to satisfy our material desires anyway.

I do wonder if SpaceX will find a massive amount of gold on an asteroid, but I’m willing to take that risk. Most of my money is safely stashed in Sears Holdings stock. O0
RIP Toots
in NE Syria, a Russian armored vehicle deliberately rammed an American military viehicle, leaving 7 US service members with concussions — the week
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by technovelist » Sun Oct 14, 2018 4:17 pm

Kbg wrote:
Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:54 am
The BH folks have some good reasons for their scepticsm. Ultimately we hope gold remains a good store of value and uncorrelated to equities. If it doesn’t, it’s economically a very stupid thing to invest in.
And if the US stock market ceases to be an outlier in the world of investing, having 50% or more of your assets in that market may turn out to be a very stupid thing to invest in.

Yet they don't seem to realize that could happen.

Which is more likely:
1. That an asset that has had great value for thousands of years loses most or all of its value, or
2. That an asset with less than 100 years of track record loses most or all of its value?

I know which of those seems more likely to me...
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Sun Oct 14, 2018 5:04 pm

dualstow wrote:
Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:30 pm
Most of my money is safely stashed in Sears Holdings stock. O0
A great widows and orphans stock. After reading the financial section of the newspaper I am convinced this is a great investment.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:23 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Sun Oct 14, 2018 5:04 pm
dualstow wrote:
Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:30 pm
Most of my money is safely stashed in Sears Holdings stock. O0
A great widows and orphans stock. After reading the financial section of the newspaper I am convinced this is a great investment.

ooh, nice corset 😂
RIP Toots
in NE Syria, a Russian armored vehicle deliberately rammed an American military viehicle, leaving 7 US service members with concussions — the week
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by eufo » Sun Oct 14, 2018 7:59 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Sun Oct 14, 2018 5:04 pm
dualstow wrote:
Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:30 pm
Most of my money is safely stashed in Sears Holdings stock. O0
A great widows and orphans stock. After reading the financial section of the newspaper I am convinced this is a great investment.
I've always been interested in Lard futures.
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Don » Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:04 pm

Is this a good time to sell gold after it finally spiked last week?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kbg » Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:59 pm

technovelist wrote:
Sun Oct 14, 2018 4:17 pm
Kbg wrote:
Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:54 am
The BH folks have some good reasons for their scepticsm. Ultimately we hope gold remains a good store of value and uncorrelated to equities. If it doesn’t, it’s economically a very stupid thing to invest in.
And if the US stock market ceases to be an outlier in the world of investing, having 50% or more of your assets in that market may turn out to be a very stupid thing to invest in.

Yet they don't seem to realize that could happen.

Which is more likely:
1. That an asset that has had great value for thousands of years loses most or all of its value, or
2. That an asset with less than 100 years of track record loses most or all of its value?

I know which of those seems more likely to me...
I think none of us know...in the store of value realm you have to consider crypto-currencies as a potential threat to gold. Clearly with all the hacking thefts, this isn't happening anytime soon. Stocks as an asset class have around 400 years of history and they completely trash any other asset for returns. This board seems to forget gold was worth whatever the US government said it was worth on Apr 5 1933 after which point it was a completely useless yellow metal so far as its purchasing power was concerned.
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