Coronavirus General Discussion

[yankees60]

I get a "mini flu" for 2-3 days every time I got a flu shot. And shingles shots. I haven't gotten a flu shot for 4 years because of that.

Isn't the shingles shot supposed to be a one-time event?

Vinny

[yankees60]

I had the shingles shot.
Then I got shingles.
No flu shots for me, thanks. Also no more shingles shots, and no pneumococcal vaccine.
I'll probably go for the covid shot if there's no reliable treatment before it comes out, though.

Sorry to hear that. How serious a case was it?

Vinny

[Dieter]

Almost 2,500 people died of COVID yesterday. ~900,000 a year at that rate.

I assume you're referring to the big spike in New York's Covid-19 deaths yesterday, right? As Dr. WiseOne explained in the Trump thread, that spike was an artifact of reclassifying a month's worth of "presumed" Covid-19 deaths as actual Covid-19 deaths on a single day. It wasn't a real one-day spike.

Even if it were a real one-day spike, extrapolating a single-day spike to estimate a yearly increase is like extrapolating a stock's single-day spike to estimate its yearly growth. Is that your usual approach?

I didn't notice the one day spike.

Since April 8th, over 1,500/day.. Still 550,000 for the year. #2 cause ? (I don't have list handy).


I left out any potential growth in the number of deaths per day if we were not socially distancing.


Yes, a challenge to figure out how to get the economy restarted balancing various needs.

[Mountaineer]

Isn't the shingles shot supposed to be a one-time event?

Vinny

There are two different type shots. The second one is supposedly a lot more effective in older people. I've had both types with no ill effects (other than a sore arm for a day or so). And according to my doctor, if you do get shingles after the shot, it is a lot less severe. Shingles can be really, really bad. If you get it in your eye - blindness. Most other areas of the body - very painful.

[yankees60]

“A wise friend posted this: “People grew sick of the social distancing measures as they dragged on into the summer of 1918. When the great war finally ended in late November, people took to the streets to celebrate their good fortune. In the coming weeks, the second wave of the pandemic killed more people than the war. It's not a game...”

[Kriegsspiel]

IMO people are thinking about this as a problem to solve, and not as a predicament (a problem without a solution). Tyler Cowen has said that America is a country that prioritizes its old people over the young, which seems like a valid heuristic to understanding why we're doing what we're doing.

The debate about how long to continue the current measures, and when to “reopen” the economy operate on the assumption that there is some sort of happy medium that allows more Americans to get back to work, while minimizing the risk of a faster spread that overwhelms ICU beds and hospitals. U.S. policymakers may soon have to confront the really dire scenario, that there is no happy medium — that changes designed to increase economic activity (and human interaction) will inevitably increase the number of cases in a bad way, and that there is no way to keep the pace of the spread slow really economically destructive quarantine measures.

There is this probably particularly American mentality that if we just study a problem long enough, and are somehow smart enough, we will inevitably discover some option that creates a win-win scenario that avoids both the terrible health consequences (more infections and more deaths) or the terrible economic consequences (a depression that forces all kinds of businesses large and small into bankruptcy). The coronavirus may be presenting the countries of the world with a no-win situation. link

This guy gets it.

[Kriegsspiel]

Also related:

The more high-handed the ruling classes were, the more likely they were to be targeted by rumors and revolt. The riots persisted longest, Cohn writes, "where elites continued to belittle the supposed 'superstitions' of villagers, minorities, and the poor, violated their burial customs and religious beliefs, and imposed stringent anti-cholera regulations even after most of them had been proven to be ineffectual. Moreover, ruling elites in these places addressed popular resistance with military force and brutal repression. By contrast, distrust and rumours of purposeful poisoning abated where elite attitudes and impositions changed." As Königsberg and other Prussian cities were rioting in 1831, the authorities in Berlin loosened the local cholera regulations; the government and middle-class charities also organized relief efforts. Berlin did not riot. link

Hi Michigan!

[dualstow]

Japan on nationwide lockdown.

[Xan]

There is this probably particularly American mentality that if we just study a problem long enough, and are somehow smart enough, we will inevitably discover some option that creates a win-win scenario that avoids both the terrible health consequences (more infections and more deaths) or the terrible economic consequences (a depression that forces all kinds of businesses large and small into bankruptcy). The coronavirus may be presenting the countries of the world with a no-win situation. link

I don't believe in a no-win scenario.

[shekels]

CCP Virus timeline.

Starting around 17:00 min mark

https://pandemic.warroom.org/2020/04/15 ... rzejewski/#

https://apnews.com/68a9e1b91de4ffc166acd6012d82c2f9

[Libertarian666]

There is this probably particularly American mentality that if we just study a problem long enough, and are somehow smart enough, we will inevitably discover some option that creates a win-win scenario that avoids both the terrible health consequences (more infections and more deaths) or the terrible economic consequences (a depression that forces all kinds of businesses large and small into bankruptcy). The coronavirus may be presenting the countries of the world with a no-win situation. link

I don't believe in a no-win scenario.

Maybe we need someone to cheat like he did.

[ochotona]

I'm home all the time and I have guns. Do I need alarm monitoring services any longer?

[WiseOne]

We hear 30,000 are dead in the USA. That's not diminished or comforted by the knowledge that the true mortality rate is 1% or 0.5% or 0.2%. 30k dead is 30k dead.

Are we putting those 30,000 Covid-19 deaths in the proper perspective?

Annual Deaths and Mortality in the U.S. (CDC)

• Number of deaths: 2,813,503
• Death rate: 863.8 deaths per 100,000 population
• Life expectancy: 78.6 years
• Infant Mortality rate: 5.79 deaths per 1,000 live births

Number of deaths for leading causes of death:

• Heart disease: 647,457
• Cancer: 599,108
• Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
• Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
• Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
• Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
• Diabetes: 83,564
• Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
• Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
• Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

1) Comparing yearly numbers with "so far" numbers. Apples to spaceships.

Almost 2,500 people died of COVID yesterday. ~900,000 a year at that rate.

Would be the leading cause of death in the US.

2) Not just deaths, but the impact to the health care infrastructure.

This is where I actually wish I were a credentialed epidemiologist, because I can think of all sorts of interesting and nontrivial questions raised by the observations above. The real questions are: 1) what is the increase in overall death rate, and 2) how much lost life (months, years) is involved? COVID deaths are defined as anyone who dies while known to be infected with COVID, which means that if they died from, say, cancer while infected with COVID, that's counted as a COVID death. We've all seen the charts showing sharp reductions in death from non-COVID causes. I really don't think the explanation is that people aren't traveling and dying of car crashes. That's a very small number especially in NYC where most transportation happens on foot or public transit. And, crime here has skyrocketed thanks to the bail law and the release of violent criminals from city jails, so the argument that people are not going out and being crime victims or getting into bar fights doesn't fly either.

The increase in hospitalizations is the really big concern and IMHO the only valid reason to continue a universal lockdown. That has to be modeled too, and it's crazy that the current political climate makes it impossible. It matters that the virus has already infected enough people (recent paper reporting 15% detectable COVID infection rate in asymptomatic obstetric patients) that herd immunity is starting to happen. Also, the risk of severe complications for young, healthy people appears related to viral dose. e.g. health care workers are 20% of the deaths. If the goal were shifted from avoiding ALL exposure to avoiding high levels of exposure, that would make increased activity far easier to manage while waiting for the vaccine to become available.

[Xan]

Also, the risk of severe complications for young, healthy people appears related to viral dose. e.g. health care workers are 20% of the deaths. If the goal were shifted from avoiding ALL exposure to avoiding high levels of exposure, that would make increased activity far easier to manage while waiting for the vaccine to become available.

WiseOne, is the best case scenario for somebody to get the disease with a low viral load? Would that give immunity without getting very sick?

[yankees60]

I'm home all the time and I have guns. Do I need alarm monitoring services any longer?

My guess would be no. But it depends upon your level of security needs. I have neither. I'm really home now all the time but I also had neither when I'm out of the house for 12 hours at a time.

Vinny

[WiseOne]

Also, the risk of severe complications for young, healthy people appears related to viral dose. e.g. health care workers are 20% of the deaths. If the goal were shifted from avoiding ALL exposure to avoiding high levels of exposure, that would make increased activity far easier to manage while waiting for the vaccine to become available.

WiseOne, is the best case scenario for somebody to get the disease with a low viral load? Would that give immunity without getting very sick?

That's my theory. I'm hoping that I manage to get just a teeny whiff of the virus while out walking on the river path or on the way to the grocery. That would be truly ideal. However, I wouldn't recommend hosting a "covid-19" party. Gatherings (large Italian family in NJ, choir in Seattle) where people do a lot of loud talking or singing have fared VERY badly.

[dualstow]

{ activate quote untangler.. }

WiseOne, is the best case scenario for somebody to get the disease with a low viral load? Would that give immunity without getting very sick?

That's my theory. I'm hoping that I manage to get just a teeny whiff of the virus while out walking
..

Then why aren't the public heath people recommending everyone line up for a very low dose exposure? Obv not all at once, but still.

That might not be the best idea, even if WiseOne’s right. If knuckleheads are congregating because they think they’re invincible, what’s going to happen after scientists with the best of intentions, give them a low dose? They’ll still ignore all instructions.
“I’ve got my antibodies. I can do whatever I want now.” Human nature.

Not to mention resistance. I can understand why even on this small forum there are people who don’t want a flu shot or a shingles shot. I don’t think 100% of the population is going to trust being purposely infected by a brand new bug that, unlike the flu, has only recently become a household word. Even though, paradoxically, they would risk getting it if the bars were open.

[ochotona]

Re-opening the country would be ok with me if the employers would take responsibility for their workers and:

1. provide safe working conditions
2. provide health coverage, and no out of pocket if they get COVID
3. provide term life insurance, 5-10x the annual wage

But the way it is now, you get a small business who hires a 1099 gig worker or someone on low pay with not benefits, and if they get sick, they just throw them away, the gain gets privatized, the sickness problem gets socialized, and they just move on to the next desperate or brave shmoe.

[WiseOne]

{ activate quote untangler.. }

WiseOne, is the best case scenario for somebody to get the disease with a low viral load? Would that give immunity without getting very sick?

That's my theory. I'm hoping that I manage to get just a teeny whiff of the virus while out walking
..

Then why aren't the public heath people recommending everyone line up for a very low dose exposure? Obv not all at once, but still.

That might not be the best idea, even if WiseOne’s right. If knuckleheads are congregating because they think they’re invincible, what’s going to happen after scientists with the best of intentions, give them a low dose? They’ll still ignore all instructions.
“I’ve got my antibodies. I can do whatever I want now.” Human nature.

Not to mention resistance. I can understand why even on this small forum there are people who don’t want a flu shot or a shingles shot. I don’t think 100% of the population is going to trust being purposely infected by a brand new bug that, unlike the flu, has only recently become a household word. Even though, paradoxically, they would risk getting it if the bars were open.

The idea for the general public is to avoid large doses of virus. That's the best reason to wear a face mask, it won't totally block the virus but it will reduce the cell count.

I would not want to start telling John Q Public to go and arrange for a small virus exposure. So I probably shouldn't have answered MangoMan the way I did. Some people on this board are considered high risk (age, underlying medical conditions etc) and should not do any such thing.

[ochotona]

Some people on this board are considered high risk (age, underlying medical conditions etc) and should not do any such thing.

Some of us are getting to be "finely cured meats".

[Tortoise]

My prediction is that when antibody tests become more widely available, we will be surprised to discover that many parts of the country and world have already achieved herd immunity (say, > 60% of people are immune).

In those places, it will appear as if the virus had spread largely unchecked through the population some months ago, so the next step will be for people to figure out how that could possibly have happened without the hospitals in those areas getting overrun. (E.g., maybe areas with higher numbers of hospital beds per capita handled their surge without much drama before anyone knew what Covid-19 was.)

Just a hunch, not based on any hard science.

[dualstow]

Some people on this board are considered high risk (age, underlying medical conditions etc) and should not do any such thing.

Some of us are getting to be "finely cured meats".

I believe CT-Scott asked if we skew a certain age on this board.

[ochotona]

Gilead stock surges 15% after report says coronavirus drug trial shows encouraging early results.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/gilead- ... sults.html

WHAT????

1_-5vorFOTtJA2hZnrZ2Jn-A.jpeg (119.07 KiB) Viewed 47945 times

[yankees60]

Midwest governors form COVID coalition

Gov. J.B. Pritzker and his regional colleagues are working together to judge when best to start easing stay-at-home restrictions and reopen their states’ economies.

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hi ... -coalition

[yankees60]

Can You Get a Coronavirus Test? It May Depend on Where You Live

Five scenarios that show the differences in states’ testingalgorithms

https://themarkup.org/coronavirus/2020/ ... virus-test