The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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pmward
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:12 pm

Yeah in the short term gold is indeed feeling a bit "toppy" to me. I think a small $100-200 correction would be a healthy and good thing at this point. But who knows? August and September are strong months for gold seasonally speaking. So it could continue to soar a bit longer. Also, interesting that today was also a new TLT all-time closing high (intraday high is still about 4% higher than current though). QQQ also hit an all-time closing high. Something has got to give here. Will the real bullish asset please stand up???
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Aug 04, 2020 4:38 pm

The gold price on my gold Apple Watch every day. ^-^


watch.png
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:54 pm

sophie wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:26 pm
Unreal!!!

With stocks and bonds both up, there's no rebalance happening anytime soon. But, my portfolio is up over 6% since July 1. Incredible...but when is the other shoe going to drop??
I think the more significant question is whether it is a size 100 combat boot.

AKA, the crack-up boom.
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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Aug 05, 2020 8:42 am

A good pickle -- I am within 0.2% of my silver band being hit. But if it does, my rebalance will have me also selling a decent amount of gold.

I don't have enough GLD to cover that, so I'd have to dip into physical, which I don't want to do.

Any thoughts of using an inverse gold ETF to rebalance negatively? Not a 2x or 3x, just a 1x so limited decay.

But I am only seeing DGZ, which has minuscule volume and very low assets.

I could just add to the lagging assets which by default will bring the % of gold and silver lower...
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dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Aug 05, 2020 9:03 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Aug 05, 2020 8:42 am
A good pickle -- I am within 0.2% of my silver band being hit. But if it does, my rebalance will have me also selling a decent amount of gold.
...
Any thoughts of using an inverse gold ETF to rebalance negatively? Not a 2x or 3x, just a 1x so limited decay.
...
Why not just get the hell out of silver at a nice price, admittedly giving up future upside.
Feels like the end of the everything rally.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Aug 05, 2020 9:42 am

dualstow wrote:
Wed Aug 05, 2020 9:03 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Aug 05, 2020 8:42 am
A good pickle -- I am within 0.2% of my silver band being hit. But if it does, my rebalance will have me also selling a decent amount of gold.
...
Any thoughts of using an inverse gold ETF to rebalance negatively? Not a 2x or 3x, just a 1x so limited decay.
...
Why not just get the hell out of silver at a nice price, admittedly giving up future upside.
Tempted, for sure. Had been underwater for many years. But as with gold, a good portion is physical, and that is even harder to deal with because of the weight!
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dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Aug 05, 2020 10:20 am

Yeah, I've never sold my physical gold.
I wonder if I'd trade my vp stock shares less frequently if I had some physical token, either the certificates of old or some attractive squares of wood or acrylic. Probably.
Feels like the end of the everything rally.
In Britain they have made burglary a safe occupation. It's like OSHA for burglars.
- Thomas Sowell on gun control
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Aug 05, 2020 10:27 am

I took the easy way out, which hopefully makes sense. Took profits and rebalanced GLD and SLV to near their correct amounts without having to touch physical. It pushed cash to above my rebalance limit, but I had in 2016 dropped my cash % from 25 to 10.

This will raise it back to about 15%. I can live with that given the current crazy environment, and will change my allocation levels to that.

I have waited so long it seems to finally take some profits in gold and silver, it almost seems unreal or anticlimactic.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:37 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Aug 05, 2020 10:27 am
I took the easy way out, which hopefully makes sense. Took profits and rebalanced GLD and SLV to near their correct amounts without having to touch physical. It pushed cash to above my rebalance limit, but I had in 2016 dropped my cash % from 25 to 10.

This will raise it back to about 15%. I can live with that given the current crazy environment, and will change my allocation levels to that.

I have waited so long it seems to finally take some profits in gold and silver, it almost seems unreal or anticlimactic.
Yeah any physical I buy is all meant for ideally a lifetime hold. The cost of carry (premium, storage, etc) is simply not worth it for any timeframe less than a lifetime hold, imo. I would have made the same decision and done a light rebalance on gold to avoid selling any physical.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:19 am

Is gold friggin 2080 today? My yahoo finance app says it’s 2080.
CNBC says...yup.
Feels like the end of the everything rally.
In Britain they have made burglary a safe occupation. It's like OSHA for burglars.
- Thomas Sowell on gun control
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:44 am

Sorry guys, had to dial back and sold some at IAU 19.68.
Restoring AA to 40/15/15/30.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Thu Aug 06, 2020 10:00 am

I also captured some profits today by rebalancing out of gold. I'm as excited as anyone to see the gold price go up, but I'm still staying disciplined with maintaining a balanced portfolio.

After today's gold price pop my portfolio rolled over to a new leading digit! Woohoo!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Aug 06, 2020 10:25 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:44 am
Sorry guys, had to dial back and sold some at IAU 19.68.
Restoring AA to 40/15/15/30.
What order is that in?
Smith1776 wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 10:00 am
I also captured some profits today by rebalancing out of gold. I'm as excited as anyone to see the gold price go up, but I'm still staying disciplined with maintaining a balanced portfolio.

...
👍
Feels like the end of the everything rally.
In Britain they have made burglary a safe occupation. It's like OSHA for burglars.
- Thomas Sowell on gun control
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Aug 06, 2020 10:42 am

dualstow wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 10:25 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:44 am
Sorry guys, had to dial back and sold some at IAU 19.68.
Restoring AA to 40/15/15/30.
What order is that in?
Smith1776 wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 10:00 am
I also captured some profits today by rebalancing out of gold. I'm as excited as anyone to see the gold price go up, but I'm still staying disciplined with maintaining a balanced portfolio.

...
👍
Usual DS, stocks/gold/LTT/cash

Sold 10% of total gold in an IRA to cash as my LTT duration was above 5.6 years. I can either raise cash or sell LTT’s to restore fixed income duration. Chose to capture some gold gains instead of sell LTT.

I think they call that killing 2 birds with one stone haha

I hope it continues to go up but I’m the kind of person that will perseverate on a missed opportunity to sell a little.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:00 pm

PMs are starting to look a bit frothy. Gold is closing in on $2100 and silver is within spitting distance of $30/oz. My gut says things are moving too fast and we may see a correction soon.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Tortoise » Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:03 pm

Uncertainty in the world has been moving pretty fast for months. Maybe PMs are just starting to catch up?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Fri Aug 07, 2020 12:09 pm

Looks like we're seeing some profit taking today with a pullback in the price of metals across the board.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Fri Aug 07, 2020 12:42 pm

Hold on to yer gold, guys! ;D
Massive sunspot is turning towards Earth this can result in major solar flares that can effect electrical systems
These sunspots occur on the photosphere region of the sun and can be huge in size - up to 50,000 kilometres in diameter
https://www.firstpost.com/tech/science/ ... 1.html/amp
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Tortoise » Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:47 pm

I just bought a big chunk of gold (and stocks and LTTs) today when I rebalanced out of cash, so that’s why gold and everything else dropped today.

Sorry about that, guys.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Mark Leavy » Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:32 pm

Has anyone else noticed that gold did not go up by $100/oz today?
What's up with that?

Tech, Smith? What have you been doing all day?
Slackers.

Mark
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:08 pm

I held down F5 but the USD value kept going down. Maybe I should switch to View > Refresh tomorrow and see if that helps.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Hal » Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:54 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Fri Aug 07, 2020 12:42 pm
Hold on to yer gold, guys! ;D
Massive sunspot is turning towards Earth this can result in major solar flares that can effect electrical systems
These sunspots occur on the photosphere region of the sun and can be huge in size - up to 50,000 kilometres in diameter
https://www.firstpost.com/tech/science/ ... 1.html/amp
Here's an interesting read 8)
https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... rm_of_1859
Aussie GoldSmithPP - 25% PMGOLD, 75% VDCO
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:07 pm

Hal wrote:
Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:54 pm
Here's an interesting read 8)
https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... rm_of_1859
How much do you want to bet that if we send this to Peter Schiff he'll talk about it on his next podcast about why people should buy gold? O0
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:27 pm

Mark Leavy wrote:
Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:32 pm
Has anyone else noticed that gold did not go up by $100/oz today?
What's up with that?

Tech, Smith? What have you been doing all day?
Slackers.

Mark
Sorry boss, we'll try to do better tomorrow!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:29 pm

Hal wrote:
Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:54 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Fri Aug 07, 2020 12:42 pm
Hold on to yer gold, guys! ;D
Massive sunspot is turning towards Earth this can result in major solar flares that can effect electrical systems
These sunspots occur on the photosphere region of the sun and can be huge in size - up to 50,000 kilometres in diameter
https://www.firstpost.com/tech/science/ ... 1.html/amp
Here's an interesting read 8)
https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... rm_of_1859
I suspect the effects would be a bit more important if that happened this year.
Which I guess we should expect, given the rest of the insanity.
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