Some 2020 General Election Polls

[Ad Orientem]

Polls released on October 28, 2020.


General Election: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 47, Trump 48 Trump +1
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 54, Trump 43 Biden +11
General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins IBD/TIPP Biden 50, Trump 45, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 1 Biden +5
General Election: Trump vs. Biden USC/Dornsife Biden 54, Trump 42 Biden +12



Maine: Trump vs. Biden Colby College Biden 51, Trump 38 Biden +13
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post* Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7
Virginia: Trump vs. Biden Christopher Newport Univ. Biden 53, Trump 41 Biden +12
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post* Biden 57, Trump 40 Biden +17



National poll average Biden +8.5%


# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error typically +/- 4%

[Ad Orientem]

Today's electoral map via Princeton University...

[yankees60]

Today's electoral map via Princeton University...

What do the two diagonal stripes in Nebraska represent? I don't see anything like it similar in any other state.

Vinny

[Ad Orientem]

Nebraska and Maine split their electoral votes based on who carries each congressional district, with the winner statewide getting the two votes represented by their senators.

[yankees60]

Nebraska and Maine split their electoral votes based on who carries each congressional district, with the winner statewide getting the two votes represented by their senators.

I see now. I did not scan far enough to the top right to see that Maine also had something similar.

Thanks for the quick explanation.

Vinny

[Libertarian666]

Here's what I think is most likely to happen:

[pp4me]

IMHO poll watching is right up there with portfolio watching as things that cause pointless angst and should be avoided.

Just hold the damn election and tell me who won.

[yankees60]

Just starting on C-Span 2 is an Indiana governor debate. Three candidates - third a libertarian. 2nd or 3rd time I've seen Libertarians in these state debates. So if you want to see how Libertarian candidates are presenting their views tune in NOW!

This is the Libertarian candidate: https://www.rainwater4indiana.com/

Vinny

[Ad Orientem]

Polls released in the last 24 hrs Thursday October 29, 2020.


General Election: Trump vs. Biden USC/Dornsife Biden 54, Trump 42 Biden +12
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 48, Trump 47 Biden +1
General Election: Trump vs. Biden USA Today/Suffolk Biden 52, Trump 44 Biden +8
General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNN Biden 54, Trump 42 Biden +12
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 52, Trump 42 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 54, Trump 43 Biden +11


Florida: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 51, Trump 47 Biden +4
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Monmouth* Biden 51, Trump 45 Biden +6
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden PPP (D) Trump 46, Biden 48 Biden +2
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden SurveyUSA Biden 47, Trump 42 Biden +5
New Jersey: Trump vs. Biden Rutgers Trump 61, Biden 37 Biden +24
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Biden 48, Trump 45 Biden +3
Virginia: Trump vs. Biden VCU Biden 51, Trump 39 Biden +12


National poll average Biden +8.9%


# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error typically +/- 4%

[sophie]

WSJ article today featuring an interview with the head of the much-maligned Trafalgar group:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-pollst ... 1604011863

QUOTE:
Mr. Cahaly won’t reveal much about his methods, but he says his polls mitigate what social scientists call “social desirability bias.” The mainstream media and other authority figures have openly and aggressively contended that Mr. Trump is a white supremacist, a would-be dictator, a cretinous buffoon and an inveterate liar. In such an environment, poll respondents who sympathize with the president, or who believe his administration has on balance done more good than harm, may be forgiven for not saying so to a stranger over the phone.

Social desirability bias is more pronounced among some demographics, Mr. Cahaly thinks, and he claims only that Trafalgar polls minimize it. “You can’t get rid of it,” he admits. To oversimplify his approach: If a poll respondent tells you he’s voting for Candidate A but that same person answers every other question in a way that suggests he’s voting for Candidate B, the pollster may wish to account for that oddity in the overall tally. And in a year when Candidate A is said by the cultural elite across the globe to be the Source of All Bad Things, the need to reckon with disingenuous answers is perhaps more important than usual.

“Take any retirement community in America,” he says. “Poll how many people watch ‘The Jerry Springer Show,’ and you’re gonna get one number. Contact the cable company and find out how many people at the same retirement community actually watch ‘The Jerry Springer Show,’ and you’re gonna get another number.”
ENDQUOTE

Sounds quite rational to me, and not at all like the crazy that one might expect given the opinions expressed about this polling service on this forum.

[yankees60]

Capture.JPG (150.55 KiB) Viewed 4662 times

[Cortopassi]

Some people here will need counseling if that happens.

[Ad Orientem]

Some people here will need counseling if that happens.

Trump has signaled he won't accept an election loss. Many of his voters agree.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-e ... y-n1245304

[Ad Orientem]

Polls released in the last 24 hrs Friday October 30, 2020.


General Election: Trump vs. Biden LIU Biden 47, Trump 36 Biden +11
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Opinium Biden 55, Trump 41 Biden +14
General Election: Trump vs. Biden The Hill/HarrisX Biden 49, Trump 45 Biden +4
General Election: Trump vs. Biden USA Today/Suffolk Biden 52, Trump 44 Biden +8
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 49, Trump 46 Biden +3
General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins IBD/TIPP Biden 51, Trump 45, Jorgensen 1, Hawkins 0 Biden +6
General Election: Trump vs. Biden USC/Dornsife Biden 54, Trump 42 Biden +12


Florida: Trump vs. Biden The Hill/HarrisX Biden 50, Trump 47 Biden +3
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden Kiaer Research Biden 54, Trump 41 Biden +13
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 47, Trump 48 Trump +1
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden PPP Biden 52, Trump 45 Biden +7


National poll average Biden +8.9%


# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error typically +/- 4%

[Cortopassi]

Some people here will need counseling if that happens.

Trump has signaled he won't accept an election loss. Many of his voters agree.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-e ... y-n1245304

I really hope this is all bluster and he leaves peacefully if he loses.

[Xan]

Some people here will need counseling if that happens.

Trump has signaled he won't accept an election loss. Many of his voters agree.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-e ... y-n1245304

I really hope this is all bluster and he leaves peacefully if he loses.

What if he wins? Will the other side just peacefully accept the results and act like adults?

They've said largely the same things that Trump has on the topic.

[Cortopassi]

Some people here will need counseling if that happens.

Trump has signaled he won't accept an election loss. Many of his voters agree.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-e ... y-n1245304

I really hope this is all bluster and he leaves peacefully if he loses.

What if he wins? Will the other side just peacefully accept the results and act like adults?

Biden:

“I will accept it, and he will, too. You know why?” Biden said. “Because once the winner is declared once all the ballots are counted, that’ll be the end of it.”

Not sure what else to say. He, at the top of the democratic party, and has indicated he will accept the results. While he cannot control the populace directly, there seems to be a good chance his voters will follow his lead peacefully, because he stated that.

[Cortopassi]

Hmmm, Antifa and BLM beg to differ.

There’s no such thing. They are just ideas. The KKK is real. The proud boys are real. White supremacists are real. They all have websites. There’s no website for Antifa and BLM so they aren’t real. Just ideas. So I’ve been told.

Last I checked neither were a candidate running for president.

[yankees60]

Of course I'm a Never Trumper and he would never get my vote under any conditions.

However, on the other hand, the prospects of Biden winning and becoming president just gives me flashbacks of all those prior one-term presidents we've had in the past who were disasters and who when they either won their nomination or the election or both, the collective response was, "How did THAT happen!!??"

Therefore under the above conditions I thought my next best choice would be the Libertarian candidate. But after reading what I found to be recent legitimate criticisms here of many libertarian positions, I will not.

At this point I am going to do a write-in vote for either Amy Klobuchar or Tulsi Gabbard. Those were the two that most impressed me during the Democratic primaries.

I guess when I see the results for my town's voting (predicted result? 77% Biden / 23% Trump) my vote will get lumped in with "Other" (<1%).

Vinny

[yankees60]

Of course I'm a Never Trumper and he would never get my vote under any conditions.

However, on the other hand, the prospects of Biden winning and becoming president just gives me flashbacks of all those prior one-term presidents we've had in the past who were disasters and who when they either won their nomination or the election or both, the collective response was, "How did THAT happen!!??"

Therefore under the above conditions I thought my next best choice would be the Libertarian candidate. But after reading what I found to be recent legitimate criticisms here of many libertarian positions, I will not.

At this point I am going to do a write-in vote for either Amy Klobuchar or Tulsi Gabbard. Those were the two that most impressed me during the Democratic primaries.

I guess when I see the results for my town's voting (predicted result? 77% Biden / 23% Trump) my vote will get lumped in with "Other" (<1%).

Vinny

That said, Biden has Trump beat on the live music at rallies! As I write this I'm watching blind, must be 70 years old, Stevie Wonder and his band do a bang up version of HIgher Ground! A real treat! C-Span, of course! Complete and unfiltered coverage!

Vinny

[yankees60]

Of course I'm a Never Trumper and he would never get my vote under any conditions.

However, on the other hand, the prospects of Biden winning and becoming president just gives me flashbacks of all those prior one-term presidents we've had in the past who were disasters and who when they either won their nomination or the election or both, the collective response was, "How did THAT happen!!??"

Therefore under the above conditions I thought my next best choice would be the Libertarian candidate. But after reading what I found to be recent legitimate criticisms here of many libertarian positions, I will not.

At this point I am going to do a write-in vote for either Amy Klobuchar or Tulsi Gabbard. Those were the two that most impressed me during the Democratic primaries.

I guess when I see the results for my town's voting (predicted result? 77% Biden / 23% Trump) my vote will get lumped in with "Other" (<1%).

Vinny

That said, Biden has Trump beat on the live music at rallies! As I write this I'm watching blind, must be 70 years old, Stevie Wonder and his band do a bang up version of HIgher Ground on his trademark Clavinet! A real treat! C-Span, of course! Complete and unfiltered coverage!

And, some day I'll tell the story of my Clavinet, which is the same one Stevie Wonder always uses.

Vinny

[Ad Orientem]

Of course I'm a Never Trumper and he would never get my vote under any conditions.

However, on the other hand, the prospects of Biden winning and becoming president just gives me flashbacks of all those prior one-term presidents we've had in the past who were disasters and who when they either won their nomination or the election or both, the collective response was, "How did THAT happen!!??"

Therefore under the above conditions I thought my next best choice would be the Libertarian candidate. But after reading what I found to be recent legitimate criticisms here of many libertarian positions, I will not.

At this point I am going to do a write-in vote for either Amy Klobuchar or Tulsi Gabbard. Those were the two that most impressed me during the Democratic primaries.

I guess when I see the results for my town's voting (predicted result? 77% Biden / 23% Trump) my vote will get lumped in with "Other" (<1%).

Vinny

I'm not going to be thrilled no matter who wins. This is absolutely a choice of the lesser of evils. But while Biden is wrong on most of the issues I typically care about, I don't consider him a threat to the Republic. He is already resigned to being a one term president because of his age so I don't think the extremists are going to have the kind of hold on him that they might with someone looking for a second term. Biden is not the extremist that the Trumpists are making him out as. Whatever unfortunate policy decisions that come out of a Biden administration will likely be fixable or we can live with them. The damage that Donald Trump has inflicted on this country, and is likely to compound if he loses the election, is worse by an order of magnitude. We have never had an American president deliberately engage in a campaign of outright lies in an effort to undermine the nation's confidence in our democracy when confronted with the strong probability of defeat at the polls.

[yankees60]

On this morning's C-Span Washington Journal Alan Lichtman discussed the Electoral College...

https://www.c-span.org/video/?477426-4/ ... al-college

But, more importantly, at the end of the segment he revealed that he is predicting a Biden win. I don't know if he'd prior revealed this in public.

"In his book, The Keys to the White House, Professor Allan Lichtman came up with 13 ‘keys’ that would predict how the American people pick their next president. The model has predicted every election correctly since its inception.[1884]" Therefore, he did predict Trump winning in 2016, primarily based upon it being a "change" election. He is predicting Biden this time around for the same reason.

Here is his web site: https://www.lichtman2020.com/

Vinny

[yankees60]

On this morning's C-Span Washington Journal Alan Lichtman discussed the Electoral College...

https://www.c-span.org/video/?477426-4/ ... al-college

But, more importantly, at the end of the segment he revealed that he is predicting a Biden win. I don't know if he'd prior revealed this in public.

"In his book, The Keys to the White House, Professor Allan Lichtman came up with 13 ‘keys’ that would predict how the American people pick their next president. The model has predicted every election correctly since its inception.[1884]" Therefore, he did predict Trump winning in 2016, primarily based upon it being a "change" election. He is predicting Biden this time around for the same reason.

Here is his web site: https://www.lichtman2020.com/

Vinny

https://www.themarysue.com/allan-lichtm ... tion-2020/

The Lone Man Who Predicted That Trump Would Win in 2016 Has Made His 2020 Pick

Capture.JPG (94.57 KiB) Viewed 4671 times

[yankees60]

Political signs?

How many political signs have you been seeing in your travels?

More, same, less than usual?

Yesterday I went off my property for the first time in three weeks. First headed to my office and then to the supermarket.

I made a loop, going in one way and coming back another.

This is a high involvement political area. Saw ZERO political signs in my town.

In the adjoining town saw a total of maybe three or four?

Way, way, way, way, way down from what I usually see.

Vinny