ochotona wrote: ↑Fri Aug 08, 2025 10:30 am
It's an attempt at capital flow control. They don't want organizations settling in gold. They want to push them through SWIFT and the US Dollar.
The US has been running with a deficit, borrows from abroad, buys more imports than it exports. Lower interest rates paid by the US than what it receives from others has been a net benefit to the US. A carry trade. Now however others are opting to not lend to the US (buy/hold dollars) but instead opt for trade deficit payments in gold, where a $1Tn trade deficit could deplete all of US gold reserves in less than a year.
Tariffs will still end up being paid by Americans aren't as Trump suggest paid by others, but where collection of such might enable lower taxes of wages/whatever. Trump would like and is almost forcing the Fed to lower US interest rates, whereas the market may very well demand higher interest rates in order to avoid otherwise buying/holding (converting dollars to) gold. Lowering interest rates will just engage further US inflation and a more rapid exodus of US gold. The liability of the US debt is being transitioned to being primarily a US (Americans) liability. Much of the world has already started transitioning away for the dollar and SWIFT clearance system for alternatives. Absent the US being able to export inflation and having carry trade benefits Americans will for the first time in decades start having to manage austerity. The US had distinct advantages that sanctioning Russia and now Trumps tariffs are totally destroying. As part of that it will no longer be able to export inflation to fund the likes of a massive military might, enabling China's military to rise to become dominant.
Trump said he could end the Ukraine war in a day, come Friday and he's now desperate for it to end in the hope of avoiding the decline of the dollar as a primary international trade settlement currency becoming a torrent. Putin accordingly will make extreme demands that Trump will either give in to, or more likely IMO just lead to further prolongation, leading to a torrent.
Fundamentally applying sanctions on Russia (weaponizing SWIFT), followed by Trumps tariffs, are killing the American golden goose.