Quiet board - time to buy?

[seajay]

The PP is out of vogue after recent large/fast gains elsewhere - but where the valuations in those alternatives seem high. Perhaps in another year after a major correction the board activity might once again soar. Those that perhaps profit took to start building up PP exposure at recent times might be the ones with the broader smiles. But maybe those that opted for a PP with the LTT element shifted more towards the shorter dated end, 25/25/50 stock/gold/5 year treasury bullet.

??

[mathjak107]

i think at this point in time the pp in it’s original 4x4 looks much much better .

rates are more likely to come down and even if they rise it looks like the big 4- 5% rise that crushed long term bonds has already happened.

while i certainly wouldn’t use it in the accumulation stage , it definitely is looking better in its original form than it has in a long long time .

in my opinion of course

[dualstow]

Always a good time to buy.
That’s part of the beauty of it.

[mathjak107]

absolutely not true as those still licking their wounds in the 50% drop in long term bonds can tell you along with near zero return on the cash portion of the pp for a long long time.

i warned for years about the pp being overly rate sensitive and a poor choice for investing at those ridiculously low rates and it came to fruition.

but with a 5% rise in rates behind us , those dangers have dropped a huge amount.

we are up near historical norms in interest rates on long term bonds

[dualstow]

I wouldn’t expect a market timer to say otherwise.
The pp is not for everyone, and it’s especially not for those timing the market, including interest rates.

[mathjak107]

well the proof is in the pudding .

many abandoned the pp because of it or they are still licking their wounds from long term bonds which are still off 50% from their peak as well as zero returns on cash at a time other assets were doing very well.

on the other hand we retired a decade ago now and our portfolio is up a million dollars from the day we retired despite spending a million from it over the ten years .

and never had more than 50% equities with most years in the 40% range .

so it was. a fabulous ride for us since retiring and part of that success was avoiding being overly rate sensitive at a time that was very poor for rate sensitive asset s

[dualstow]

“I did better than the pp” is not an argument against it, except where it underscores my admission that it’s not for everyone.
But yes, I do remember the PRPFX guy talking about how plenty of investors leave during lean years.

If anyone is worried about getting in (or out of) the pp, they shouldn’t be in anything with the name “permanent” in the first place. They should be in something else. In and out of stocks, I guess.

[boglerdude]

Browne didnt predict QE and the zero lower bound. But like MJ said with rates at 4% its viable again.

[dualstow]

Fine, but is it still a permanent portfolio?
Maybe Harry Browne would have concocted a new portfolio after quantitative easing, but at any point during the run of pp-related books and radio shows did he ask, “Is this a good time to buy long bonds? Is this a good time to buy cash?” Before, the pp, yes. e.g. The Coming Devaluation.
But during? On the contrary. He’d receive calls from people who had let gold fall to 10% and the same for cash. And of course they had their economic reasons. And he’d encourage them to get back to a real pp.

Don’t get me wrong. If you can anticipate rate changes or make sense of current rates and trade on that, then more power to you. I am not that guy from The Stand who refused to smash a window at a bicycle store even though the entire world had broken down because there were rules.

And, I’m old enough to remember that even craigr was taking notice of long bonds nearing 1% instead of just looking at rebalancing bands.

Even on bogleheads, I cringe at topics titled “is this a good time to buy in?” (Stocks). But “Is this a good time to buy the pp” seems even worse. If you’re going to trade in and out of assets, even all four of them at once, there has to be a better portfolio for you. Isn’t there? Why trade in and out of a portfolio that minus the variable portfolio, you’re supposed to be fully invested in?

[yankees60]

Fine, but is it still a permanent portfolio?
Maybe Harry Browne would have concocted a new portfolio after quantitative easing, but at any point during the run of pp-related books and radio shows did he ask, “Is this a good time to buy long bonds? Is this a good time to buy cash?” Before, the pp, yes. e.g. The Coming Devaluation.
But during? On the contrary. He’d receive calls from people who had let gold fall to 10% and the same for cash. And of course they had their economic reasons. And he’d encourage them to get back to a real pp.

Don’t get me wrong. If you can anticipate rate changes or make sense of current rates and trade on that, then more power to you. I am not that guy from The Stand who refused to smash a window at a bicycle store even though the entire world had broken down because there were rules.

And, I’m old enough to remember that even craigr was taking notice of long bonds nearing 1% instead of just looking at rebalancing bands.

Even on bogleheads, I cringe at topics titled “is this a good time to buy in?” (Stocks). But “Is this a good time to buy the pp” seems even worse. If you’re going to trade in and out of assets, even all four of them at once, there has to be a better portfolio for you. Isn’t there? Why trade in and out of a portfolio that minus the variable portfolio, you’re supposed to be fully invested in?

"And, I’m old enough to remember that even craigr was taking notice of long bonds nearing 1% instead of just looking at rebalancing bands."

You don't have to even be that old. I'm guessing it was 4, 5 years ago. Easy to find as it was one of his last posts. He essentially stated that once the interest rates reached such a low point he'd be hesitant to be buying long-term bonds.

[mathjak107]

there are times you don’t need to be a great predictor or market timer to know it’s not a great idea loading up on certain assets at certain times , and long term bonds were certainly that asset at such low rates.

they are still at a loss the last ten years and the 15 year for tlt is 1.68% cagr

[Jack Jones]

there are times you don’t need to be a great predictor or market timer to know it’s not a great idea loading up on certain assets at certain times , and long term bonds were certainly that asset at such low rates.

they are still at a loss the last ten years and the 15 year for tlt is 1.68% cagr

Yawn, some things never change. "Oh look, a new thread. Let me see how I can use it to feed my ego."

[dualstow]

"And, I’m old enough to remember that even craigr was taking notice of long bonds nearing 1% instead of just looking at rebalancing bands."

You don't have to even be that old. I'm guessing it was 4, 5 years ago. Easy to find as it was one of his last posts. He essentially stated that once the interest rates reached such a low point he'd be hesitant to be buying long-term bonds.

You are correct, Vinny. It wasn’t that long ago. There’s this annoying trend of young people appropriating the phrase, saying “I’m old enough to remember (x)” where x is something from a short while ago, even last year. The only way I can cure myself of curmudgeonry about it is to participate.