Long-term yields keep rising as Trump amps up fight for Fed control

Discussion of the Bond portion of the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

Post Reply
User avatar
yankees60
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10506
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts

Re: Long-term yields keep rising as Trump amps up fight for Fed control

Post by yankees60 »

Completely scary.

Is this like Rome where Nero fiddled? Our politicians have been doing the same for decades on end?
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3685
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Long-term yields keep rising as Trump amps up fight for Fed control

Post by ochotona »

I don't see any way out of it. They would have to let inflation run hot and keep interest rates low across the yield curve, not just the short end, by the Fed buying more and more and more and more and more longer term Treasury bonds, so that they could default by inflation... pay the bondholder at face value in 10, 20, 30 years but with money of greatly diminished purchasing power.

Loss of purchasing power will make everyone more miserable and poorer, trade barriers in the form of tariffs make both trading partners poorer. Can't wait to see those North American coffee crop and banana crop and wintertime fresh fruit production capabilities emerge. I'm sure that demand will make the supply magically appear.

Artificially low long rates will beggar the saver as we did all the way from GFC until only a few years ago, and will add fuel to Stupidity Bubbles and zombie companies that would die off and help reset the deck were it not for low interest financing.

When we have a true exploding crisis, they're going going to raise tax rates back anyway, when the other party is in power. Roth convert now, Take capital gains in a low tax regime.

Get your gold allocation set up, and hold it through cyclical bear markets. I think the crisis comes when Jamie Dimon suggested... around 2034. That's after the mandatory 23% Social Security haircut.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 15423
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: searching for the lost Xanadu
Contact:

Re: Long-term yields keep rising as Trump amps up fight for Fed control

Post by dualstow »

What’s GFC? I’m sure it will be totally obvious once I see it, but right now I can’t think of it.
PM ISHIBA OF JAPAN IS STEPPING DOWN
User avatar
Xan
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 4572
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2012 1:51 pm

Re: Long-term yields keep rising as Trump amps up fight for Fed control

Post by Xan »

dualstow wrote: Mon Sep 01, 2025 2:16 pm What’s GFC? I’m sure it will be totally obvious once I see it, but right now I can’t think of it.

Must be Great Financial Crisis.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 15423
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: searching for the lost Xanadu
Contact:

Re: Long-term yields keep rising as Trump amps up fight for Fed control

Post by dualstow »

Ah, thank you Xan
PM ISHIBA OF JAPAN IS STEPPING DOWN
User avatar
seajay
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 622
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:11 am

Re: Long-term yields keep rising as Trump amps up fight for Fed control

Post by seajay »

I've been inclined to read it as Global Financial Crisis
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 15423
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: searching for the lost Xanadu
Contact:

Re: Long-term yields keep rising as Trump amps up fight for Fed control

Post by dualstow »

Ah yes. That’s what Gemini says
PM ISHIBA OF JAPAN IS STEPPING DOWN
User avatar
yankees60
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10506
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts

Re: Long-term yields keep rising as Trump amps up fight for Fed control

Post by yankees60 »

seajay wrote: Sat Sep 06, 2025 4:50 am I've been inclined to read it as Global Financial Crisis
Always (for those inclined to use oft-confusing acronyms).
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 15423
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: searching for the lost Xanadu
Contact:

Re: Long-term yields keep rising as Trump amps up fight for Fed control

Post by dualstow »

yankees60 wrote: Sat Sep 06, 2025 3:39 pm
seajay wrote: Sat Sep 06, 2025 4:50 am I've been inclined to read it as Global Financial Crisis
Always (for those inclined to use oft-confusing acronyms).
Always what? Always grateful for an answer?
PM ISHIBA OF JAPAN IS STEPPING DOWN
Post Reply