Quiet board - time to buy?

[mathjak107]

the dick in georgia is back .

why not take a hike and stay out of my conversations with your useless comments

no one needs your dumb ass comments. you really are a worthless contributor here and only serve to spew insults

[dockinGA]

the dick in georgia is back .

why not take a hike and stay out of my conversations with your useless comments

no one needs your dumb ass comments. you really are a worthless contributor here and only serve to spew insults

Feel free to contradict anything I said in this to continue "your" conversation.

[mathjak107]

i wouldn’t waste my time replying to any of your comments any further

your a dick and i don’t converse with morons like you other than to say you are a dick

you bring nothing of value to this forum except harassment and insults

[dockinGA]

i wouldn’t waste my time replying to any of your comments any further

your a dick and i don’t converse with morons like you other than to say you are a dick

you bring nothing of value to this forum except harassment and insults

Excellent response to keep the discussion moving. Full of harassment and insults.

At least your comment a few days ago made it clear that you understand your role on this site: Keeping "your" conversations moving. Nevermind the fact that those discussions started out not involving you at all, but eventually the original posters give up and let you have the floor. Oh well. I guess we have our answer as to why the message board is quiet. I'll check back in a few months to see if you've taken your investing expertise some place else.

[mathjak107]

take your bull shit elsewhere if you don’t like what’s said

[Xan]

Fellas... Could we be civil please? Mathjak, regardless of how it's presented, could you consider that dockinGA might have a valid point about monopolizing conversations? dockinGA, your actual issues are being obscured by your rudeness and personal attacks.

[Hal]

While waiting for some more posts, here is some light reading. Enjoy!

https://honors.libraries.psu.edu/files/ ... sions/1584

[dualstow]

While waiting for some more posts, here is some light reading. Enjoy!

https://honors.libraries.psu.edu/files/ ... sions/1584

Nice!

[seajay]

• Due to the fact that taxes are levied against nominal gains, the government scoops up most of the wealth generated through compounding.
• Maxing out Roth contributions is still worthwhile.
• Don't contribute to 401k past company match.
• Buy gold with the rest

Thoughts?

Taxing nominal gains is a wealth tax, if the price of a asset just paces inflation but you pay tax on the nominal 'gain' you're left with less real wealth. Inflation is another form of taxation, print/spend money and all other notes in circulation are worth less. Some consider that to be unreasonable, legally legal buy morally wrong. Fair taxes are reasonable, excessive taxes are ... theft. Individuals who opine such might be more inclined to prefer bearer/in-hand assets, such as gold, bought with cash that nobody else knows about, (maybe many years) later when sold withdrawing hard-cash from a bank account to 'buy' that gold - perhaps at a garage sale, that is then sold on to a dealer in return for a bank transfer/credit for little/no gain. Where they alone control that value, can physically pass it on to others without any other third party involvement. Unlike bank deposits/savings/investment account where others are involved, typically operating under state licence and where in order to remain compliant they might even freeze/confiscate the value at any time as instructed by the state.

The rise of blockchain is in part a reflection of such state controls/actions. Bitcoin for instance might be considered as a form of 3x leverage tech stock holding, so you might hold just a third of the amount in that as you'd otherwise invest in a stock index fund. The other two thirds perhaps in short term treasury's. Instead of treasury bonds you might hold stable coin, that is staked in a diverse manner to perhaps similar interest/effect. A form of synthetic PP of sorts via 8% bitcoin, 25% physical gold, 67% stable coin that's staked and perhaps yields similar returns to treasury bonds. But where the gold and private keys to the crypto are all in-hand.

Bitcoin became more main-stream in 2021 and since then (to the end of September 2025) ...

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tRH8JRwMg4

Code: Select all

Portfolio           CAGR    Stdev   Best Year  Worst Year    MaxDrawdown
	
PP                  6.75%   8.34%   17.38%     -11.79%       -15.11%

8/25/67
Bitcoin/Gold/Cash   11.09%  7.44%   19.55%      -3.81%        -9.22%

(assumption that staked stablecoin or suchlike yielded similar/same rewards as cash deposits). Staking involves counter party risk, so in practice typically yields are higher, but so also are the default risks, where at least in concept the higher yields offsets the defaults.



It's not just individuals who are transitioning away from fiat and into bearer/in-hand assets, but entire countries, globally. Having seen how Russia was locked out from SWIFT (international trade settlements) they became fearful that the same could at any time be applied to them, and in Trumps case - potentially on a whim.

[Jack Jones]

Individuals who opine such might be more inclined to prefer bearer/in-hand assets, such as gold, bought with cash that nobody else knows about, (maybe many years) later when sold withdrawing hard-cash from a bank account to 'buy' that gold - perhaps at a garage sale, that is then sold on to a dealer in return for a bank transfer/credit for little/no gain.

[kwg2005]

The PP is out of vogue after recent large/fast gains elsewhere - but where the valuations in those alternatives seem high. Perhaps in another year after a major correction the board activity might once again soar. Those that perhaps profit took to start building up PP exposure at recent times might be the ones with the broader smiles. But maybe those that opted for a PP with the LTT element shifted more towards the shorter dated end, 25/25/50 stock/gold/5 year treasury bullet.

??

I think you're on to something. At some point in early 2022 i sold off my TLT. I didn't get it at the peak, but not far off. I knew it was going to crash as yields were rising. I don't normally time markets but that time I did because it seemed so obvious. I'm doing something similar now. I have higher concentration of stocks and cash but no treasuries. Now that yields are higher I may introduce some mid-duration bond funds like BND. I can't expect the downward protection of the PP but it will be better than most with the gold and cash. I honestly wonder if Harry would still promote the long term treasuries when they got down to below 1 percent.

[seajay]

The PP is out of vogue after recent large/fast gains elsewhere - but where the valuations in those alternatives seem high. Perhaps in another year after a major correction the board activity might once again soar. Those that perhaps profit took to start building up PP exposure at recent times might be the ones with the broader smiles. But maybe those that opted for a PP with the LTT element shifted more towards the shorter dated end, 25/25/50 stock/gold/5 year treasury bullet.

??

I think you're on to something. At some point in early 2022 i sold off my TLT. I didn't get it at the peak, but not far off. I knew it was going to crash as yields were rising. I don't normally time markets but that time I did because it seemed so obvious. I'm doing something similar now. I have higher concentration of stocks and cash but no treasuries. Now that yields are higher I may introduce some mid-duration bond funds like BND. I can't expect the downward protection of the PP but it will be better than most with the gold and cash. I honestly wonder if Harry would still promote the long term treasuries when they got down to below 1 percent.

A STT/LTT barbell might be considered as little different to a 10 year bullet. During times of high interest rates its reasonable to push that bullet out, perhaps to 15/whatever years. Similarly during periods of low yields that might be shortened down, and at extremely low yields perhaps all the way down to being just STT. Pro bond managers/funds might better manage that, and whilst you say that may introduce less year on year downside protection that higher volatility (if any) is inclined to wash when you average in/average out/average down (rebalance periodically) over many years.

25% multiple stock index funds - to dilute single stock index fund risk (even entire stock indexes can at times become tilted/over (or under) run). VT
25% Gold
50% Bond bullet fund. BND
... alternative comparison https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ml4imJFx0s

[I Shrugged]

BND is an all-bond index. I would say you are playing with fire, compared to a treasuries fund. Please look at what happened to corporate bonds in 08-09. Treasuries were the right answer then, and will be in the foreseeable future. I'm speaking from painful experience.

When the time comes that treasuries are trash, the rest of the bonds will be in ashes.

[dualstow]

I’ve never heard BND referred to as playing with fire before