Why so quiet?

[glennds]

In a year that has been so good for the Permanent Portfolio, I would have expected a bunch of renewed interest and traffic on this forum. Why so quiet? Then again, it's been a good time for equities in general, so maybe the resurrected traffic comes after a correction/crash.

I just hit 15/35 rebalance bands after quite a while. This means it's time to sell some gold and stocks and (gulp) buy Treasuries and add to cash. Not easy to make a case for buying long bonds, but that's the nature of rebalance. Anyone else doing the same?

Unusually good year for a steady capital preservation portfolio.

[mathjak107]

at this level of rates now i see more risk in equities than long term bonds .

when rates were so low long term bonds were not a good choice in my opinion but that’s different now

[foglifter]

Yeah, PP has done well this year. Gold’s been on an uptrend for the last couple of years, so I’m already hitting my rebalancing point. I’m just really hesitant to sell any right now with all the money-printing and the concerns around U.S. government debt servicing. As to equities I trimmed my FZROX position a bit and bought 3-month T bills. Our 401(k) contributions are going into value index funds.

BTW I read that 80% of the new issues are within a 1-year duration.

[coasting]

In a year that has been so good for the Permanent Portfolio, I would have expected a bunch of renewed interest and traffic on this forum. Why so quiet? Then again, it's been a good time for equities in general, so maybe the resurrected traffic comes after a correction/crash.

I think you nailed it - why it's so quiet. While the PP is up an amazing 22% through first 11 months of 2025, a classic 60/40 US Stock/Total US Bond is also up a very respectable 13%. So I wouldn't expect to find the disillusioned wandering over looking for an alternative solution in a year like this - need a stock correction/crash to trigger that.

I just hit 15/35 rebalance bands after quite a while. This means it's time to sell some gold and stocks and (gulp) buy Treasuries and add to cash. Not easy to make a case for buying long bonds, but that's the nature of rebalance. Anyone else doing the same?

Asset returns for 2025 through November:
Stocks 17.06%
LTT 7.65%
Gold 60.19%
Cash 3.88%
Yep, rebalance from stocks & gold to long bond & cash is the correct move. Sell high asset, buy low asset, trust the PP.

Unusually good year for a steady capital preservation portfolio.

Indeed. Compared to 2025 through November - only 2 better full years since 1978 (per Portfolio Visualizer):
PP up 39% in 1979 (best year for gold up 126%)
PP up 23% in 1982 (best year for stocks up 47%)
In another 31 days we can know the final number for 2025.

[boglerdude]

Since people keep asking, conservatives/contrarians were directly and indirectly banned/shunned during the 2020 debt jubilee and cover-story. https://old.reddit.com/r/ChurchOfCOVID/ ... nting_the/

Should have had a "surge" in new members during gold's run up.

[yankees60]

The actual numbers are only 16 new members since July 9th and only one of them has posted anything. This person has done 4 posts.

search.php?author_id=5560&sr=posts

[glennds]

at this level of rates now i see more risk in equities than long term bonds .

when rates were so low long term bonds were not a good choice in my opinion but that’s different now

I see where you're coming from if your comment is based on high equity valuations. But if we take a step back and look at it from the perspective of HB's four economic conditions, the conditions for bonds to do well would be deflationary. With the persisting sticky inflation we have, I don't see that happening. It's possible a new Fed administration could subordinate itself to the President and reduce interest rates anyway, but that would probably defy economics and be a temporary situation and it may only affect the short end of the curve.

My best guess is that we will have a combination of tight money recession and prosperity, meaning some sectors of the economy will prosper and others will contract.

However all this is moot. If we're following the PP philosphy it is agnostic and our opinions are irrelevant. We're rebalancing mechanically in advance of conditions that are unpredictable. So I held my nose and sold stocks, bought bonds and increased cash. Back to 25/25/25/25.

[mathjak107]

i meant rate wise compared to cash investments falling .

there is a good chance you could see some capital gains too.

[dualstow]

Since people keep asking, conservatives/contrarians were directly and indirectly banned/shunned during the 2020 debt jubilee and cover-story.

Code: Select all

 https://old.reddit.com/r/ChurchOfCOVID/comments/1p7vwy6/remember_when_they_where_over_counting_the/

Should have had a "surge" in new members during gold's run up.

Funny, I don’t remember that, and I could actually see the moderator logs.
I do remember a couple people acting like complete a-holes, but as I recall, the bulk of people left of their own accord in anger / out of frustration. They even announced it.

But, just because someone is interested in the permanent portfolio, that doesn’t mean they’re going to wind up here.
And, just because someone’s here, it doesn’t mean there are that many things to post about the pp. It kind of runs itself, doesn’t it.

I’m glad that there are people like Hal and others occasionally posting articles and clips about assets or economic ideas.

When M*A*S*H ran its course the producer said, “There are only so many jokes you can tell about surgery and bad food.”

[Smith1776]

Since people keep asking, conservatives/contrarians were directly and indirectly banned/shunned during the 2020 debt jubilee and cover-story.

Code: Select all

 https://old.reddit.com/r/ChurchOfCOVID/comments/1p7vwy6/remember_when_they_where_over_counting_the/

Should have had a "surge" in new members during gold's run up.

Funny, I don’t remember that, and I could actually see the moderator logs.
I do remember a couple people acting like complete a-holes, but as I recall, the bulk of people left of their own accord in anger / out of frustration. They even announced it.

But, just because someone is interested in the permanent portfolio, that doesn’t mean they’re going to wind up here.
And, just because someone’s here, it doesn’t mean there are that many things to post about the pp. It kind of runs itself, doesn’t it.

I’m glad that there are people like Hal and others occasionally posting articles and clips about assets or economic ideas.

When M*A*S*H ran its course the producer said, “There are only so many jokes you can tell about surgery and bad food.”

Ahhhh MASH... the show that always ran after late night Seinfeld re-runs hehe.

[stpeter]

But, just because someone is interested in the permanent portfolio, that doesn’t mean they’re going to wind up here.

Let's face it, discussion forums (run on PHP, no less) are so 90s. These days all the cool kids are on TikTok or maybe Signal/Discord/Slack chats.

[foglifter]

But, just because someone is interested in the permanent portfolio, that doesn’t mean they’re going to wind up here.

Let's face it, discussion forums (run on PHP, no less) are so 90s. These days all the cool kids are on TikTok or maybe Signal/Discord/Slack chats.

I still read almost every post here. The cool kids can have TikTok; we’ll be over here compounding quietly!

[dualstow]

All the cool kids are on tiktok, true.
No wonder they don’t know anything

I’m glad you’re reading the forum, foglifter!
We should take a poll one of these days and see who’s lurking.
I see Pugch- I mean DogBreath looking right now…

[seajay]

But, just because someone is interested in the permanent portfolio, that doesn’t mean they’re going to wind up here.

Let's face it, discussion forums (run on PHP, no less) are so 90s. These days all the cool kids are on TikTok or maybe Signal/Discord/Slack chats.

... where they perceive stocks and bonds as things that grandpa held in pre crypto/P2P times


https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... 4YQbeLhqZR