Global Stock ETFs

[stpeter]

I've been thinking about adding a global (non-U.S.) component to my Golden Butterfly portfolio, because hey it's a big world out there and it wasn't nearly as big when Harry Browne defined the Permanent Portfolio back in the 1990s. (Yes, I know, on the one hand there is currency risk, but on the other hand non-U.S. equities might not be highly correlated with U.S. equities.) Things change and maybe I need to change with them!

Revisiting my well-worn copy of Rowland and Lawson, I see that they're not as negative about international equities as I had remembered - although they do suggest that if you want to go this route you should limit the exposure to 5-10% of your portfolio.

Not being a Vanguard investor, I've been looking into the iShares MSCI Global Minimum Volatility Factor ETF (ACWV). Does anyone on the forum have experience with that one or with ACWI? What are folks here using for global exposure? Is this something that you'd recommend, or do you think we get enough global exposure through U.S. companies that have a global economic presence?

[coasting]

Is this something that you'd recommend, or do you think we get enough global exposure through U.S. companies that have a global economic presence?

I think that US companies provide enough global exposure. I prefer to stick with only US equities primarily due to the currency risk. Stocks are in the PP for when the dominant economic theme is prosperity. I don't want returns from prosperity to be adjusted by currency differences. I pay for things with US dollars. The US dollar is my unit of measure. The weak US dollar in 2025 boosted returns of non-US equities relative to US equities, but the 60% return on gold more than covered for the weak dollar.

[stpeter]

Is this something that you'd recommend, or do you think we get enough global exposure through U.S. companies that have a global economic presence?

I think that US companies provide enough global exposure. I prefer to stick with only US equities primarily due to the currency risk. Stocks are in the PP for when the dominant economic theme is prosperity. I don't want returns from prosperity to be adjusted by currency differences. I pay for things with US dollars. The US dollar is my unit of measure. The weak US dollar in 2025 boosted returns of non-US equities relative to US equities, but the 60% return on gold more than covered for the weak dollar.

That's always the way I thought about it, too, but I'm beginning to wonder. Prosperity might not be evenly distributed or highly correlated - e.g., India might be doing great while the U.S. is struggling, so why not benefit from prosperity happening there?

Also I'll admit that 2025 returns outside the U.S. were pretty impressive, as "I Shrugged" pointed out recently in another thread: viewtopic.php?p=259655#p259655

[boglerdude]

ex-US just HAD a big run up. Foreign tax credit is a nuisance. Gold is global exposure. India and China dont necessarily let you have a slice. https://old.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting ... e_chinese/

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=409214

But I'm 0% stock https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

[Jack Jones]

Fama: A global market portfolio is kind of a risky venture because the problem is that countries go to war with one another. We thought we were past that, but now we’re finding out we aren’t. And wartime is subject to expropriation risks. So in other words, each side expropriates the investors of the other side, and they never get made whole after that. Everybody forgets about investors.

So, that’s the fundamental risk. In my view, the fundamental risk of international investing is if you get expropriated by the other side, those numbers never appear in the historical data. They’re just not there.

I mostly stick to US securities, except in a couple momentum strategies I follow.

[seajay]

ex-US just HAD a big run up. Foreign tax credit is a nuisance. Gold is global exposure. India and China dont necessarily let you have a slice.

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=409214

But I'm 0% stock https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

Trumps desire for US isolationism is running well, but has consequences, even the closest of former allies are currently just sucking up to Trump whilst divestment plans are prepared/implemented (US divestment). At some point I wouldn't be surprised if Google/Nvidia/Microsoft/Apple ...etc. aren't permitted to operate in many countries outside of the US, as might 'tariffs' be reciprocated such as foreign tax credits being raised to high levels against Americans, or like China not even being allowed a slice. Trump has laid the foundations for such 'tariffs' (barriers) policies and no doubt they'll be reflected. Aware of that Trump is seeking to domesticate the entire US debt and turn a trade deficit into a trade surplus, policies towards that are also running well but may have peaked come the next Presidential election. A good four years still to run perhaps, with a (potentially very) bad 2030's.

A high PE can become even higher, totally shorting (dumping out of all) US stocks is a extreme choice. Better to diversify, still hold some, but complemented with others (international stocks and other assets such as gold).

[Kevin K.]

I've been thinking about adding a global (non-U.S.) component to my Golden Butterfly portfolio, because hey it's a big world out there and it wasn't nearly as big when Harry Browne defined the Permanent Portfolio back in the 1990s. (Yes, I know, on the one hand there is currency risk, but on the other hand non-U.S. equities might not be highly correlated with U.S. equities.) Things change and maybe I need to change with them!

Revisiting my well-worn copy of Rowland and Lawson, I see that they're not as negative about international equities as I had remembered - although they do suggest that if you want to go this route you should limit the exposure to 5-10% of your portfolio.

Not being a Vanguard investor, I've been looking into the iShares MSCI Global Minimum Volatility Factor ETF (ACWV). Does anyone on the forum have experience with that one or with ACWI? What are folks here using for global exposure? Is this something that you'd recommend, or do you think we get enough global exposure through U.S. companies that have a global economic presence?

This question has come up pretty often on these forums so I saved this excellent exchange between Desert and Tyler of Portfolio Charts fame, inventor of the Golden Butterfly and someone whose views about everything PP and GB related I heed:

"Desert wrote:
One additional question: Have you considered a slice of international, for diversification? I realize that past returns show it's always been a return-reducer (with the exception of very high risk EM).

A: Ive looked into it several times, and have yet to find a convincing evidence-based reason to add international stocks to a US-based PP. The biggest proponents of international diversification generally cite the very reasonable assumption that US stocks won't always perform so well and you'll need something else to pick up the slack. I completely agree, but the data indicates that gold already fills that role particularly well which is why adding international never seems to improve the numbers. And in the GB, the small caps also pitch in by greatly diversifying away from the relatively small number of large caps that drive returns of a total market fund due to how the index is weighted. There's more to stock performance than the country it's domiciled in.

I'll note, however, that due to macroeconomic forces the negative correlation of gold to stocks is more pronounced in the US than in other countries. If I was a PP investor outside of the US, international investing would look more appealing. And if gold ownership is ever outlawed again in the future or if an individual investor simply has a mental block on owning gold, international stocks are a logical backup choice to fill that role in a portfolio."

Now while I have enormous respect for Tyler I personally would, in 2026, choose VT or its cheaper roll-your-own version (65% VTI:35% VXUS) and ditch both the VTI VBR in the GB. I'd overweight international (vs global market capitalization) somewhere between a little (40%) and a lot (50%) and ditch the small-cap value. Owning international is in and of itself enough of a small and mid cap play for me given hot totally VTI is dominated by the Mag 7, but of course international stocks are at the end of the day more of a currency play/bet against the dollar than anything else. And I'll take that bet, given that our fearless leader Metamucil Mussolini is doing everything he can to debase the dollar and encourage other countries to ditch Treasuries, stock up on gold and in general take full advantage of having a moronic toddler running the show.

I'd keep the gold of course and replace the long-term Treasuries with something like the defensive barbell Johnathan Clements used to use: half each VGSH and VTIP.

Anyway I don't think there's anything sacred about using just VOO or VTI for the stocks. Hell if Harry Browne were alive today and took one look at the current shit show I wouldn't be surprised if he went with the portfolio my old DFA advisor told me he went to the day after Trump took office for his second term: 50% each gold and T-Bills. YMMV.