The GOLD scream room

[stpeter]

Today's Wall Street Journal has an article entitled "Five Reasons Gold Is Surging Toward $5,000 an Ounce". In short:

- The debasement trade / economic and political uncertainty
- Lower interest rates / rotation out of government bonds
- Central bank buying / de-dollarization
- Stocks are expensive (at historical highs by some measures)
- Momentum

[Smith1776]

Vinny, you started a real verbal brawl about gold on the knuckleheads forum!

[pmbug]

Today's Wall Street Journal has an article entitled "Five Reasons Gold Is Surging Toward $5,000 an Ounce". In short:
...

[Smith1776]

When will we hit $5000...

[flyingpylon]

When will we hit $5000...

At this rate... tomorrow?

Hope everyone remembers to update their insurance coverage as needed. Might need to put your insurance broker on speed-dial.

[yankees60]

Vinny, you started a real verbal brawl about gold on the knuckleheads forum!

I woke up yesterday morning to a 2 week ban with NO explanation! I've emailed the administrator but have not got any response regarding the reasons why.

I started that one topic which generated a lot of activity and now all I can do is sit on the sidelines and read what others have to say while not being allowed to participate myself.


There was also another topic going on at the same time regarding gold and silver but it ended up getting locked.

In both of the topics I was extremely surprised at how many people were in favor of gold. In the other topic (the one I'd not started) .. it seems like half (or more) were in favor. I'd not expected anywhere that many to be in favor. Maybe 15, 20% tops?

[Smith1776]

Vinny, you started a real verbal brawl about gold on the knuckleheads forum!

I woke up yesterday morning to a 2 week ban with NO explanation! I've emailed the administrator but have not got any response regarding the reasons why.

I started that one topic which generated a lot of activity and now all I can do is sit on the sidelines and read what others have to say while not being allowed to participate myself.


There was also another topic going on at the same time regarding gold and silver but it ended up getting locked.

In both of the topics I was extremely surprised at how many people were in favor of gold. In the other topic (the one I'd not started) .. it seems like half (or more) were in favor. I'd not expected anywhere that many to be in favor. Maybe 15, 20% tops?

What???

I don't participate in that forum anymore, but I do browse/lurk occasionally. I saw your gold thread. I didn't see anything that warranted banning.

Bizarre!

[dualstow]

Is it still there?

[Smith1776]

Is it still there?

Looks like it was deleted?

[stpeter]

Is it still there?

Looks like it was deleted?

Wrongthink shall not be tolerated!

[Smith1776]

Yeah, the last I saw a day or so ago was that there was an argument really brewing. I guess the dissent against the mainstream wisdom wasn't looked too kindly upon.

[yankees60]

Is it still there?

Looks like it was deleted?

Deleted??!! That is the extreme. Usually they only get Locked.

Let me check.

After the ban I'd been able to go in and see and read as late as this morning.

But now I am getting this:

"The board requires you to be registered and logged in to view this forum."

Can you get to it here?

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=466815

[Smith1776]

Is it still there?

Looks like it was deleted?

Deleted??!! That is the extreme. Usually they only get Locked.

Let me check.

After the ban I'd been able to go in and see and read as late as this morning.

But now I am getting this:

"The board requires you to be registered and logged in to view this forum."

Can you get to it here?

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=466815

I get the same message. Even when I log in it then proceeds to tell me I'm not authorized to view that thread. Strange.

[flyingpylon]

Is it still there?

Looks like it was deleted?

Deleted??!! That is the extreme. Usually they only get Locked.

Let me check.

After the ban I'd been able to go in and see and read as late as this morning.

But now I am getting this:

"The board requires you to be registered and logged in to view this forum."

Can you get to it here?

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=466815

I get the same message. Even when I log in it then proceeds to tell me I'm not authorized to view that thread. Strange.

The thread is visible now. The final post says it was locked due to the discussion running its course and that it had been temporarily removed for moderator review.

Seems like the "problem" with gold is just that it's not as predictable as people want it to be.

[Smith1776]

Instead of Vinny, why don't they ban NotNiceParticularWoman?

[dualstow]

I had never seen the thread until it got mentioned here, but I was “not authorized” which was why I asked.
Can read it now, for the first time.

The current final post by LadyGeek explains that it was temporarily removed for moderator review.

[Smith1776]

I don't know why anyone even tries to argue in favour of gold with those fools.

You can take a horse to water, but you can't make it drink.

[seajay]

As that thread is locked

will we be able to count on gold coming to the rescue if we see a major collapse in the price of common stocks?

No!

At times both stocks and gold have down years. A case example is for Japan 2008. At the start of the year it took 111 Yen to buy a US dollar, by year end that had reduced to 90. Gold in USD rose 5% but adjusting to Yen lost -15%. US stocks dropped -38% in USD, -50% in Yen, Japanese stocks in Yen dropped near the same.

Stocks might be considered as being a reflection of global business/earnings, as might gold be considered as a form of global currency. To FX balance that 50% in stocks/gold should be counter balanced with 50% in domestic currency - perhaps invested in a 10 year treasury bond bullet, or 50/50 short/long term treasury bond barbell. In 2008 Japanese bonds/cash earned little, near-as nothing, BUT the Yen relatively gained, bought more USD (and hence relatively cheaper stocks/gold), so whilst 2008 was a bad year for the Japanese PP it did recover/recoup that relatively quickly, dipped around -14% in 2008, had fully recovered in real terms by 2010.

Bogleheads is predominately a sales front for Vanguard and as such are biased. They've banned some really good posters who deviated from towing that line, left other obnoxious posters who tend to support the likes of anti-gold.

[Smith1776]

As that thread is locked

will we be able to count on gold coming to the rescue if we see a major collapse in the price of common stocks?

No!

At times both stocks and gold have down years. A case example is for Japan 2008. At the start of the year it took 111 Yen to buy a US dollar, by year end that had reduced to 90. Gold in USD rose 5% but adjusting to Yen lost -15%. US stocks dropped -38% in USD, -50% in Yen, Japanese stocks in Yen dropped near the same.

Stocks might be considered as being a reflection of global business/earnings, as might gold be considered as a form of global currency. To FX balance that 50% in stocks/gold should be counter balanced with 50% in domestic currency - perhaps invested in a 10 year treasury bond bullet, or 50/50 short/long term treasury bond barbell. In 2008 Japanese bonds/cash earned little, near-as nothing, BUT the Yen relatively gained, bought more USD (and hence relatively cheaper stocks/gold), so whilst 2008 was a bad year for the Japanese PP it did recover/recoup that relatively quickly, dipped around -14% in 2008, had fully recovered in real terms by 2010.

Bogleheads is predominately a sales front for Vanguard and as such are biased. They've banned some really good posters who deviated from towing that line, left other obnoxious posters who tend to support the likes of anti-gold.

Like NotNiceParticularFool?

[dualstow]

Not really the news of the day for those of us in the storm’s path,
but
5K

[dualstow]

@Smithers

This is better than bananas and rice

[Smith1776]

@Smithers

This is better than bananas and rice

I don't remember/get this reference.

[boglerdude]

^ ditto. But just saw this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTQYYh--afc

Unrelated. Mr Warp Speed https://youtu.be/ZKxGKfgXnu4?t=155