Just my luck!

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Pointedstick
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Just my luck!

Post by Pointedstick »

Figures I buy my first gold coin right before three consecutive days of decent-sized losses for gold. :P I've definitely noticed this pattern in my investing behavior: nearly every time I make a conscious purchase (not a monthly contribution), what I just bought falls, and whatever I sell immediately shoots up. Is this just a case of bad luck, or am I ignoring some obvious market signals? I don't really know anything about technical analysis.

On the other hand, EDV is going crazy on the other direction! ;D
Human behavior is economic behavior. The particulars may vary, but competition for limited resources remains a constant.
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Storm
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Re: Just my luck!

Post by Storm »

After a while you won't care as much.  It took me a while to stop seeing assets in isolation too.  I still look at my Fidelity portfolio and cringe at the few assets that are in the red and look optimistically at the majority that are in the green...  This is just a side effect of my past trading experience.
"I came here for financial advice, but I've ended up with a bunch of shave soaps and apparently am about to start eating sardines.  Not that I'm complaining, of course." -ZedThou
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AdamA
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Re: Just my luck!

Post by AdamA »

Pointedstick wrote: Figures I buy my first gold coin right before three consecutive days of decent-sized losses for gold. :P I've definitely noticed this pattern in my investing behavior: nearly every time I make a conscious purchase (not a monthly contribution), what I just bought falls, and whatever I sell immediately shoots up. Is this just a case of bad luck, or am I ignoring some obvious market signals? I don't really know anything about technical analysis.

On the other hand, EDV is going crazy on the other direction! ;D
Just bad luck.  Ultimately, it won't matter much.
"All men's miseries derive from not being able to sit in a quiet room alone."

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dualstow
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Re: Just my luck!

Post by dualstow »

There must be someone who bought at 1800


... and sold at 1600.
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Re: Just my luck!

Post by HB Reader »

AdamA wrote:
Pointedstick wrote: Figures I buy my first gold coin right before three consecutive days of decent-sized losses for gold. :P I've definitely noticed this pattern in my investing behavior: nearly every time I make a conscious purchase (not a monthly contribution), what I just bought falls, and whatever I sell immediately shoots up. Is this just a case of bad luck, or am I ignoring some obvious market signals? I don't really know anything about technical analysis.

On the other hand, EDV is going crazy on the other direction! ;D
Just bad luck.  Ultimately, it won't matter much.
That is absolutely right.  In my experience, Mr. Market LOVES making a monkey of us in the short run.  If you have a sound strategy, it won't matter much in the long run.  Just try to stay happy and healthy so you can enjoy the long run.

Technical analysis may have some useful applications in certain circumstances, but I've never found it even remotely useful for a PP-type strategy.   
FarmerD
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Re: Just my luck!

Post by FarmerD »

Dennis Miller had funny take on investing.

" A bear market is where my stocks go down in value along with everyone else's.  A bull market is where my stocks go down all by themselves."

Seems that way sometimes.
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AdamA
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Re: Just my luck!

Post by AdamA »

FarmerD wrote: Dennis Miller had funny take on investing.

" A bear market is where my stocks go down in value along with everyone else's.  A bull market is where my stocks go down all by themselves."

Seems that way sometimes.
Is there anything creepier than when Dennis Miller appears on the Bill O'reily show?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PcfBGThoYpI

6:09
"All men's miseries derive from not being able to sit in a quiet room alone."

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jackely

Re: Just my luck!

Post by jackely »

Pointedstick wrote: Figures I buy my first gold coin right before three consecutive days of decent-sized losses for gold. :P I've definitely noticed this pattern in my investing behavior: nearly every time I make a conscious purchase (not a monthly contribution), what I just bought falls, and whatever I sell immediately shoots up. Is this just a case of bad luck, or am I ignoring some obvious market signals? I don't really know anything about technical analysis.
I would suggest getting reliable data to prove your assertions about the guaranteed failure of your investment decisions. If the rest of us become convinced we will know to do the opposite of what you recommend and we can share the profits with you.
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Re: Just my luck!

Post by Pointedstick »

jackh wrote:
Pointedstick wrote: Figures I buy my first gold coin right before three consecutive days of decent-sized losses for gold. :P I've definitely noticed this pattern in my investing behavior: nearly every time I make a conscious purchase (not a monthly contribution), what I just bought falls, and whatever I sell immediately shoots up. Is this just a case of bad luck, or am I ignoring some obvious market signals? I don't really know anything about technical analysis.
I would suggest getting reliable data to prove your assertions about the guaranteed failure of your investment decisions. If the rest of us become convinced we will know to do the opposite of what you recommend and we can share the profits with you.
Hah, several of my co-workers have said the same thing. My next planned trade is probably going to sell a bunch of AAPL once it hits $600. With my luck, that will mean a week of sustained growth following the sale and it will shoot up to $700. This is basically what happened the last two times I sold AAPL. I still won big so I'm not complaining!
Human behavior is economic behavior. The particulars may vary, but competition for limited resources remains a constant.
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Xan
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Re: Just my luck!

Post by Xan »

It could also mean it gets to $599 and then crashes through the floor.  So it's hard to know what to do, even assuming your strategy is wrong...
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