A Good Time To Buy SLV?

[Reub]

I notice SLV starting to outperform GLD. Is this a good time to purchase some?

[foglifter]

I notice SLV starting to outperform GLD. Is this a good time to purchase some?

To some extent silver and gold are like apples and oranges: silver is both precious and industrial metal and it's price depends on more factors. Just something to keep in mind.

[Bean]

I like silver as a long play, for several reasons.

* All the "easy" silver will be mined by 2020.  After that you will have to have very expensive mining processes to access it.
* Silver is not recycled in the same way as gold, so it is consumed and then goes to a landfill and becomes cost prohibitive to dig it back up.
* Modern society (electronics, cell phones, medical, etc.) use silver increasingly with no viable alternatives.
* There is a 6 month surplus when compared to industrial demand, and the surplus is trending down.
* As China and India become more industrialized 2 billion people will start demanding the high end products that consume silver.

Short Story: Silver will be volatile right now, but by 2020 it could easily be worth more than gold.  Also, I would recommend physical over SLV.

[Gosso]

I really like the MACD on both gold and silver, which is approaching levels close to late 2008 (right before the previous big move up).

[Ad Orientem]

Both gold and silver have been showing signs of life lately. And I agree that silver could be a very profitable long term speculative investment. I have doubts about owning it physically though. Storage costs for silver storage could be much higher than gold for obvious reasons. Although I am not a fan of closed ended funds for the PP because the premium swings can really gum up your rebalancing calculations, I might take a look at CEF for a VP play.

[Gosso]

Reub,

So, did you buy any silver?  It looks like it's up 24% since your original post.

[murphy_p_t]

if you can't create more of it with a "Control-P"....its probably a good buy

[MediumTex]

I prefer platinum over silver.

I think that platinum is attractively priced right now.

[Reub]

I did not buy any silver. I did very well with it a few years ago but I didn't pull the trigger on this one but I sure wish that I did. It is up 24% in less than a month! I do own some PRPFX and a little PERM and they have 5% stakes in silver, so I guess I profited from it that way.

[murphy_p_t]

if you can't create more of it with a "Control-P"....its probably a good buy

therefore.....PSLV or something to hold in your hand

[Gosso]

I did not buy any silver. I did very well with it a few years ago but I didn't pull the trigger on this one but I sure wish that I did. It is up 24% in less than a month! I do own some PRPFX and a little PERM and they have 5% stakes in silver, so I guess I profited from it that way.

Shitty.  Let us know next time you have a good hunch.  I have a little CEF in the PP (holds 50% gold / 50% silver), which is up 16%, so I'm happy with that one.

[clacy]

I did not buy any silver. I did very well with it a few years ago but I didn't pull the trigger on this one but I sure wish that I did. It is up 24% in less than a month! I do own some PRPFX and a little PERM and they have 5% stakes in silver, so I guess I profited from it that way.

Don't second guess.  Remember, if Draghi and Bernanke would have chose different routes, you could be down 24% in a month with silver

[Reub]

I thought that Bernanke would disappoint. That would have been a bloodbath!

[murphy_p_t]

no correction in metals after the recent run?

[murphy_p_t]

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0M-xNR_dZp8/U ... -26-12.png

close to a very good time to buy bullion?

what are the strongest counter arguments?

[Gosso]

what are the strongest counter arguments?

Medium to long term possible bearish signals:

- M2 growth becomes stagnant.

- We see positive real interest rates above 2% (this increases the carrying cost of gold/silver and makes cash more attractive).

- gold/silver experience a bubble, once the bubble bursts gold/silver will become undervalued...they can stay undervalued for decades (ie 80's, 90's).

- dow/gold ratio falls below 2.

- gold/silver is stupid, only stupid-heads invest in stupid silver/gold...it's a freakin rock you dumb dummies.    (although this could be a bullish sign)

As for the short term moves...I have no idea.  They will likely test their 200 day moving averages at some point.

[MachineGhost]

what are the strongest counter arguments?

We've started a recession.

[Reub]

Shhhh....don't tell anybody until after the election.