Gold: Deep in bear market with a grim outlook

[annieB]

I read that lots of mines are no longer profitable at current prices and have closed.
India and China are still large buyers.
Who are the big sellers?

[Kshartle]

I read that lots of mines are no longer profitable at current prices and have closed.
India and China are still large buyers.
Who are the big sellers?

That's my question. I think it must be hedge funds, speculators and other momentum players that have jumped on stocks for the moment.

[Reub]

The beginning of tapering that was announced today may be the trigger that gets gold out of its doldrums. A trigger really doesn't have to make much sense after all.

[Kshartle]

The beginning of tapering that was announced today may be the trigger that gets gold out of its doldrums. A trigger really doesn't have to make much sense after all.

If the announcement of taper does not knock gold down......at some point the shorts will have to cover, particularly if rates rise. I suspect the speculative money is heavily short compared to historical norms. I think I've see some data showing that.

Now that tapering has been announced.....any backtracking will be very problematic for the FED.

I've been listening to Bernanke. He looks like a man trying to cross the grand canyon on a tight rope with a high wind. He is trying to downplay the taper so much and shift to the rates and everything else. I think they would like to get out of the entire QE mess by focusing on rates, unemployment and CPI figures instead. He's commiting them to buying as much or doing whatever it takes to meet the targets. He's alluded to that possibly meaning more buying if neccessary.

All that being said I have this feeling in the pit of my stomach that Asia is going to sell gold hard overnight. Since I'm usually wrong on short term direction, if anyone is close to buying gold you should probably pull the trigger

[annieB]

Everyone will hate gold at the bottom.
I'm down about six figures on mine.
I hate gold....

[Libertarian666]

Everyone will hate gold at the bottom.
I'm down about six figures on mine.
I hate gold....

I'm down six figures too, and the first digit isn't a 1.

[Kshartle]

You guys should try out the miners.

If hate signals a bottom then they botttomed months ago.

[annieB]

Kshartle,Libertarian666:


I least I like the company I'm keeping.
It's getting closer...

[Pointedstick]

Everyone will hate gold at the bottom.
I'm down about six figures on mine.
I hate gold....

I'm down six figures too, and the first digit isn't a 1.

[buddtholomew]

The PP components are awfully frustrating to watch at times and certainly try my patience. I would have been disappointed if the portfolio ended in the red given a 300 point rally in the DOW. I don't think we have seen the bottom in gold, but as long as equities offset losses, that is satisfactory for now. We'll see how treasuries respond as they could be a significant drag on performance as well.

[MediumTex]

Everyone will hate gold at the bottom.
I'm down about six figures on mine.
I hate gold....

I'm down six figures too, and the first digit isn't a 1.

We're having a sales contest.  First prize is a Cadillac.  Second prize is a set of steak knives.  Third prize is you're fired.

It's carved in my mind.  I couldn't forget it if I tried.

[Libertarian666]

Everyone will hate gold at the bottom.
I'm down about six figures on mine.
I hate gold....

I'm down six figures too, and the first digit isn't a 1.

I should also note that my overall gain on gold is still in six figures too, and the first digit of that isn't a 1 either. Buying a big chunk in 1998 has turned out pretty well... so far.

[portart]

Gold certainly seems only like a hedge and not a driver for PP and after going from 300. to 1900., backing off, it might just slog along for years. Some people are predicting another market crash next year. If that does happen, you will again be happy with a PP.

[murphy_p_t]

Why on Earth would gold drop significantly from here? Does anyone have a theory what would drive global selling of gold against the dollar? Why are people going to want to store their wealth in dollars a lot more than gold from here on out?

Do you guys think the supply of gold is going to rise compared to the demand? Will the supply of dollars decrease vs. demand?

I think the opposite of course and have made the case many times but what is the opposite case?

why is gold down?

some thoughts, in no particular order...

1 we're in a deflationary cycle...businesses not expanding/hiring...hoarding cash
2 manipulation (gata.org)
3 opportunity cost vs stock market / momentum
4 taper not fully priced in
5 sell stops getting tripped
6 market psychology...herd mentality
7 GLD holding of metal is down

[portart]

Code: Select all

8) We own it

Want gold to go up? Sell it, works every time.