This is just for fun and food for thought...I know prediction is folly...please don't label me a gyroscopicinvesting.com heretic
Looks pretty likely the PP will have a negative return for 2013. The PP has never had 2 negative years in a row and the year following a negative year has always been pretty strong. I (unhappily) predict that the 2014 PP will NOT be strong (it will be flat or negative). The justification being that interest rates will likely rise (causing serious damage to long term treasuries) and I see no economic or human emotion impetus for gold to make a positive move. Cash will continue to return next to nothing. Stocks are not really overvalued but from a historical perspective they have been in an uptrend for an unusually long time. However, stocks do have momentum on their side and economic/business data is moving in the right direction so they could have another good year. The one thing most likely to throw a monkey wrench into my prediction will be some sort of serious world event(s) that cause fear to rise which would boost demand for LTTs and gold (and thus the PP).
Disclosure: Significant portion of my net worth for 2014 will remain in a standard PP allocation and I will 25/25/25/25 rebalance at the end of the year (although I am tempted to underweight LTTs by 5%). My VP will continue to focus on high growth big name small/mid/large cap stocks.
Anyone else care to join the fun and offer their "best guess"?
Edit:
Happy Holidays/Merry Christmas/Happy New Year to all !!
You can also find a different but related poll here:
- Stocks deliver strong positive returns buoyed by continued good economic news.
- Bonds are up a bit as rates fail to rise as people predict, with the Fed not wanting to hinder the recovery.
- Gold is mildly negative, with the slightly falling real interest rates fighting against the rising optimism to deliver slightly negative performance.
- Cash continues to be boring.
VTI +14%
TLT +7%
GLD -11%
SHY +0.5%
Last edited by Pointedstick on Sat Dec 21, 2013 7:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
Human behavior is economic behavior. The particulars may vary, but competition for limited resources remains a constant.
- CEO Nwabudike Morgan
Gold will go down a bit further before shooting back up once Goldman Sachs and their like have bought enough at current lows and a plausibly scary financial event happens somewhere to drive the crowds back.
Ultimately the call is on stocks since all others should be dependent on where they go in the new year. With companies buying back stock aggressively and with so much "new" money from QE, stocks should have an easy time moving up. If stocks go up marginally or steady - this will continue to eat away at gold and long bonds. If stocks move up huge, the only reason would be better economic activity which would result in inflation which will be the next driver for gold to move up from here, bonds will suffer in that case. If the economy continues to stagnate and there's no driver for stocks, slight drop in stocks will not put gold up much but move more into long bonds as more easing will be expected or some form of fed intervention. Finally the big drop in stocks will drive gold up huge at the expense of others.
Scenario 1
Stocks +
Bonds --
Gold -
Cash -
Scenario 2
Stocks ++
Bonds -
Gold +
Cash -
Scenario 3
Stocks -
Bonds ++
Gold +
Cash +
Scenario 4
Stocks --
Bonds +
Gold ++
Cash +
I predict scenario 1 at the start of the year and ending with 2.
Should be a good opportunity to buy gold in first half of 2014 and rising in the back half. No good entry point for stocks and bonds will continue to slide this year.
I would not want to be overweight stocks in the fall of 2014, when the elections are decided and there really is no further need for this Administration to be creating a phony, bubbly equity market.
Reub wrote:
I would not want to be overweight stocks in the fall of 2014, when the elections are decided and there really is no further need for this Administration to be creating a phony, bubbly equity market.
You don't think the next administration will want to create a phony, bubbly market just as much?
Human behavior is economic behavior. The particulars may vary, but competition for limited resources remains a constant.
- CEO Nwabudike Morgan
My predictions the 2014 will FINALLY be time for gold stocks to go up….majorly, at least a double. They are down, beaten up, tried and failed so often they are hated and given up on. Their chart looks like trip to hell, down and scraping the bottom. Risk reward? How much more can you lose? Who is left to sell?
portart wrote:
My predictions the 2014 will FINALLY be time for gold stocks to go up….majorly, at least a double. They are down, beaten up, tried and failed so often they are hated and given up on. Their chart looks like trip to hell, down and scraping the bottom. Risk reward? How much more can you lose? Who is left to sell?
Once tax loss selling ends there should hopefully be nothing but buying pressure, provided gold doesn't sell off much.
GDX has outperformed GLD by about 5% over the last 17 trading days although this is a very short time.
I've bought so much GDX in the last six months nothing could cause me to buy more at this point. The only thing that could cause me to sell would be panic-buying in gold by the average investor.
Reub wrote:
I would not want to be overweight stocks in the fall of 2014, when the elections are decided and there really is no further need for this Administration to be creating a phony, bubbly equity market.
You don't think the next administration will want to create a phony, bubbly market just as much?
Sure they will. However, I'm talking about the next election, which is for the Congress and not the Presidency.
