Banks and SL10
Moderator: Global Moderator
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Clive
Re: Banks and SL10
Interesting post Clive. Do you think however that there is a possibility that we could be entering into a larger currency / debt crisis that makes traditional valuations of stocks in currency terms difficult? For example, stocks might rise greatly in nominal terms but relative to gold they underperform?
I am started to be swayed somewhat by those who think that we are getting closer to what they refer to as the "end-game" or "crack-up boom". This makes me question whether the historical "cycle" that you refer to is still a valid within the context of a larger secular debt / money printing crisis.
Greek debt has climbed to the point where it appears that no level of austerity will be sufficient to rectify the situation. It seems that they are headed for a restructuring. Many other countries in Europe seem to be following closely behind. The United States I think is also dangerously close to being stuck in a debt trap. Rising interest rates would naturally follow from a stock market boom which would compound our debt problem even further.
I think that the western global economies really might be in a check-mate type position. It seems that there is a signficant risk that within the decade we might have to acknowledge reality, lay down our king, and start a new game.
I am started to be swayed somewhat by those who think that we are getting closer to what they refer to as the "end-game" or "crack-up boom". This makes me question whether the historical "cycle" that you refer to is still a valid within the context of a larger secular debt / money printing crisis.
Greek debt has climbed to the point where it appears that no level of austerity will be sufficient to rectify the situation. It seems that they are headed for a restructuring. Many other countries in Europe seem to be following closely behind. The United States I think is also dangerously close to being stuck in a debt trap. Rising interest rates would naturally follow from a stock market boom which would compound our debt problem even further.
I think that the western global economies really might be in a check-mate type position. It seems that there is a signficant risk that within the decade we might have to acknowledge reality, lay down our king, and start a new game.
Last edited by doodle on Sun Jul 17, 2011 7:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone. - Blaise Pascal
Re: Banks and SL10
Stories like this make me wonder if these investors are dumb money or whether they see a larger storm on the horizon that is causing them to flee to nonconventional assets like farmland: http://www.cnbc.com/id/43769985
All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone. - Blaise Pascal
Re: Banks and SL10
How do you decide when to buy back into an asset once you are stopped out? If gold drops back down to 1400 next week I would be stopped out. How do I know that it would be time to buy back in again?
All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone. - Blaise Pascal
Re: Banks and SL10
Are you talking about your VP money?doodle wrote: How do you decide when to buy back into an asset once you are stopped out? If gold drops back down to 1400 next week I would be stopped out. How do I know that it would be time to buy back in again?
Please don't tell me you are using a PP with stop losses. That would defeat the whole purpose of the PP.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
Re: Banks and SL10
This is just an academic exercise for me. I am waaaayyy to dumb to speculate. Economics is my Sunday football. 
All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone. - Blaise Pascal