As far as financial advisors go, I like these people

[ochotona]

When I'm too old to manage things, it's either a simple lazy robust portfolio run by my daughter, or go with these people... but that could be 15 years in the future, maybe they're retired, too, by then. OMG GenX is getting older, too!

I like how John blows up the investment community myths.

[mathjak107]

meh ,

the reality is no one can not only miss the worst days but they can’t even miss the worst broader time frames .

if any of these timing models and proprietary trading systems actually worked , they wouldn’t be telling you, and they would have beaten buffet’s record .

so the best we can do is not miss the best days .

that is very easy , just have your long term money invested .

you will never miss the best days ever .

University of Michigan Professor H. Nejat Seyhun analyzed 7,802 trading days for the 31 years from 1963 to 1993 and concluded that just 90 days generated 95% of all the years’ market gains — an average of just three days per year. miss those few days and you hurt your return .

[dualstow]

if any of these timing models and proprietary trading systems actually worked ,

What do you call the things you are paying for? The things with buzzwords like "flying fighter cover."
Aren't they proprietary?

[mathjak107]

they are but they work with other assets in risk parity fashion .

it is not a performance or timing thing like it is when he talks about missing the worst days in stock and using timing models to get in and out

[ochotona]

they are but they work with other assets in risk parity fashion .

it is not a performance or timing thing like it is when he talks about missing the worst days in stock and using timing models to get in and out

I think you're splitting hairs, man.

Putting together a portfolio of highly uncorrelated things that go up and to the right based on historical correlations, or making asset class entries and exits based on quantifiable trend data are just two different types of algos.

The trouble with highly uncorrelated things that go up and to the right based on historical correlations is that the correlations are backwards looking, and will be wrong-ish into the future. Or maybe very wrong, if the macro environment has suddenly and severely changed, as may be happening now.

I have more faith in trend, because at tops and bottoms human psychology always takes over. Herding and FOMO never will change, because our brains aren't going to change.