SHY variant of HBPP

[middleman]

Backtesting: https://testfol.io/?s=aRr5LPTR6y0

25% SPY / 25% GLD / 50% SHY is essentially:

Growth engine: SPY
Crisis hedge / inflation shock: GLD
Volatility ballast + dry powder: SHY

Compared to Harry Browne’s classic PP (stocks / long bonds / gold / cash), you’ve:

Replaced long bonds with short Treasuries → lower duration risk
Leaned harder into capital preservation
Accepted slightly lower upside in exchange for stability

[Kevin K.]

ITT's are a better replacement for the short/long barbell - VGIT is one of the best options because it hews exactly to the optimal 5 year duration. Essentially identical returns to the classic PP without the scary drawdowns from LTT's. But it's still a really imbalanced portfolio IMHO. Gold and LTT's are insurance assets best used in percentages not exceeding 10%. No reason to ever go longer than 5 years on the bonds.

All of the stellar performance of the PP, GB and variants thereof comes from people starting backtesting in or around 1970. Bretton Woods ended in 1971 and there was a massive one-time surge in gold. Gold didn't really become an investable asset until the mid 70's. Start your backtest aa or around 1980 and you get a much more realistic idea of the returns of the PP and your proposed iteration vs. a plain vanilla 60:40:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... JPMiJJBVhF

[mathjak107]

decent returns on gold really started about 20-35 years ago .

once gold etfs came on the scene gold became more main stream .

you would be hard pressed to find any time frame the last 25 years a combo of equities and bonds beat equities and gold