The world’s biggest investors have taken huge bets on the question gripping markets: what next for gold? By Emma Rowley .
'Some of the mugs have taken extreme bets on a falling gold price,”? says one precious metal retailer. “Never have the money managers become so convinced that gold is about to fall heavily.”?
"It could actually mean that the gold price is about to rise strongly “as they must buy back these positions”?, the seller argues. So runs the logic among those with a tendency to dangle every piece of news, good or bad, in front of would-be customers as an incentive to buy the precious metal.
Still, the biggest of gold backers would have to admit that now may not be the best time to be flogging gold, as economic optimism around the US, the world’s biggest economy, rises, and worries around the eurozone recede.
I'm not quite sure these "big investors" quite understand the difference between QEternity and real interest rates. I suspect they will hold onto or average down their losing gold positions if the latter were to go positive (which is happening now in direction at the least), because they believe it is all about the former. That will be a proposition they should refuse.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Slotine wrote:
I'm in the camp that it's deflating. There's enough data suggesting stabilization, at least enough to not tie up capital waiting for a far possibility.
Fwiw, I've been out of it for a few months now, ever since it detached from global equities.
Slotine,
What is your general framework. Is it PP inspired but you tilt/drift depending on conditions or is it something entirely else?
everything comes from somewhere and everything goes somewhere
Slots: I'm have trouble coding/visualizing this, do you have a screenshot?
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
MachineGhost wrote:
Slots: I'm have trouble coding/visualizing this, do you have a screenshot?
Go to stockcharts.com and plug in "GLD:ACWI". The colon makes it return a chart that is expressed as a ratio which is pretty neat. You are no longer expressing things in dollars which can come in handy
everything comes from somewhere and everything goes somewhere
melveyr wrote:
Go to stockcharts.com and plug in "GLD:ACWI". The colon makes it return a chart that is expressed as a ratio which is pretty neat. You are no longer expressing things in dollars which can come in handy
But where is the crossover point for determining whether to buy or sell gold? There is no zero line. Or did slots mean to use a 200ma of the ratio as that point?
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
I believe if you select "performance" instead of candlestick for the drop down menu than it includes dividend reinvestment. This can be useful to see if something outperformed the S&P. For example doing "LO:SPY" and clicking performance one can see if you outperformed with an investment in Lorrilard.
everything comes from somewhere and everything goes somewhere
Slotine wrote:
edit: Or even 24-month if you prefer. I honestly don't remember right this minute which I finally settled on... but the older thread about it is here - http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/ht ... 317#p46317 if you're interested.
I vaguely remember that! I probably dismissed it because you were newish at the time and it was "too simple". Funny how time is the friend of wisdom.
I'll extend the backtest and also compare it to the four currency model which I've modified to be profitable.
EDIT: Where do I get the ACWI historical data back to 1968?
Last edited by MachineGhost on Thu Mar 14, 2013 1:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
