Reub wrote:I think that Schiff has been right more than wrong.
Do you have any evidence to support that? I couldn't find any. Here's a rundown of his miserable track record:
http://www.economicpredictions.org/pete ... edictions/
And that doesn't even include his latest
blown 2013 Treasury collapse call.
Very few gurus ever have a track record that is better than 50%, but Schiff's record, at ~30% success, is closer to the bottom of the barrel. You'd be better off flipping a coin.
Reub wrote:
I am certain that he has made lots of money for himself and for his investors, being that he has been heavily invested in gold over many years.
Not from what I can tell. The Wall Street Journal ran this piece in 2009 after he gave the dead wrong investment plan in response to correctly predicting the 2008 credit crisis:
WSJ: Right Forecast by Schiff, Wrong Plan?
Some good quotes from the article about Peter Schiff and his
Euro Pacific Capital Funds:
The Wall Street Journal wrote:A number of investors said their Euro Pacific portfolios lost 50% or more in 2008, worse than the 38% drop in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index last year. People familiar with the firm say that hardly any securities recommended by Euro Pacific brokers gained ground in 2008
Such losses came as something of a surprise. Mr. Schiff's prescient call for the collapse of the U.S. housing market and the weakening of the financial system helped him gain fame as an economic guru and savvy investor who promised shelter from the financial storm.
In his 2007 book, "Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse," he recommends that investors pile into gold, commodities and overseas stocks that spit out steady dividends.
When global markets were soaring, many Euro Pacific investors' accounts experienced strong performance. For several years, investors saw returns in excess of 20% a year as foreign stocks and commodities surged, according to people familiar with the firm.
In 2008, investors nervous about the state of the U.S. economy who were impressed by Mr. Schiff's track record poured money into Euro Pacific, nearly doubling the number of accounts to 16,000. But many did so at the worst time possible, much like investors who piled into Internet stocks as the dot-com bubble peaked.
Mr. Schiff, 45 years old, says the downturn in his strategy is a short-term setback. He argues that it is only a matter of time before the dollar collapses, pressured by massive government bailouts, triggering outsize returns for his investors.
Source:
WSJ: Right Forecast by Schiff, Wrong Plan? (2009)
The Wall Street Journal wrote:Critics say Mr. Schiff's strategy is much riskier and more aggressive than many investors realize. David Yeske, managing director of Yeske Buie, a Vienna, Va., money manager, says Mr. Schiff's investment strategy was a focused bet on a single outcome, rather than risk management for investors looking to protect assets from an economic collapse. "He's a speculator; he thinks he can see the future," says Mr. Yeske, former chairman of the Financial Planning Association. "That's not really risk control."
One of Mr. Schiff's biggest forecasts was that many overseas economies would "decouple" from the U.S., gaining strength even as the American economy struggled. Instead, overseas stock markets plunged as much or more than U.S. stocks in 2008 as the global economy skidded. Prices for commodities also tanked, torpedoing another favorite investment theme of Mr. Schiff's. After last year's losses, his firm has about $845 million in assets.
Early last year, Richard De Gennaro, a retired Harvard University librarian, put $100,000, about 15% of his assets, into a Euro Pacific account that included Canadian Oil Sands Trust, which focuses on crude-oil projects in Canada, and the India Capital Growth Fund, which holds investments in companies that do business in India.
Both investments took big hits in 2008, compounded by the fact that the Canadian dollar and the Indian rupee fell 18% and 19%, respectively, against the U.S. dollar. The 83-year-old retiree's account is now worth about $37,000, a 63% plunge. Mr. Schiff "goes around saying that he was right," says Mr. De Gennaro. "He was right about one thing and wrong about everything else."
Among investors who turned to Mr. Schiff's firm just as his strategy began to falter, Brian Kullberg, a design engineer in Portland, Ore., says he started to worry about the state of the U.S. economy in early 2008. He put $70,000 into a Euro Pacific account, hoping it would benefit as the U.S. economy and the dollar weakened. By late January 2009, his investment had shrunk to about $25,000.
"It's curious," says one longtime client of Mr. Schiff's who works in finance. "His thesis of how things are going to collapse and crumble and fall apart isn't effectively executed in [my] account." The account, which is largely invested in gold, mining and infrastructure stocks from Canada to Australia, was down roughly 35% last year, the client estimates. The Australian dollar weakened 19% against the U.S. dollar in 2008.
Source:
WSJ: Right Forecast by Schiff, Wrong Plan?
It take a special kind of talent to correctly foresee the 2008 credit crisis and then steer investors in the completely wrong direction. Anyone who lost 50% of their portfolio with Schiff from 2007-2009 would have needed a 100% gain just to get back to break-even. And those with a 65% drawdown would need a 200% gain to get back to break-even!
Read more:
http://www.businessinsider.com/2009/1/p ... z2jv6eYqlQ
Reub wrote:Having heard him speak in the past, I believe that he is just making a statement on the poor state of the U.S. economy, our massive debt of $17 trillion, and the poor economic and job conditions favoring a weaker long term dollar and higher gold prices. Why is he castigated for stating an opinion that makes good sense?
Because that's really just a political statement. And as far as I can tell, he rarely ever makes a good call. And the one time he
does make a good call he gives horrific advice in response to that call. Like all the other "gurus", he's just a snake oil salesman. He riles up conservatives in hopes that they will buy his books and back his funds.
Nothing I say should be construed as advice or expertise. I am only sharing opinions which may or may not be applicable in any given case.