Using PP Knowledge with Options Contracts

[moda0306]

Has anybody got experience with options here?  I figure, since we know that it's very likely that either gold, LT Treasuries, or Stocks will go up 10% or even 20% in a year, would it be wise to take up an Options position with all three, and use that knowledge to "beat the house."  In 38 years of PP, only 11 times has one of those 3 failed to hit 20% or more, and only 4 times have one those sectors, in any one year, failed to hit 10%.

This seems to me to be a recipe to be able to use our knowledge of macroeconomics to our advantage.  With some of our VP, take up some sort of options position every year on Gold, LT Treasuries, and some sort of S&P or TSM fund, and you KNOW one of them will probably pay off.

Can you buy/sell options of mutual funds and/or ETFs?
Can you set up proper durations, etc?
Are options and fees too expensive for this to work well more than once or twice a decade?

I am surprised this hasn't been talked about.... I couldn't find any info in a previous discussion on this subject.

[Jan Van]

I've thought about doing that using LEAPS. SPY, GLD and TLT all have LEAPS. Never figured out if it would work though...

[moda0306]

Interesting work, Clive.  Much appreciated input!

I find the RSPP interesting from reading in the past, because it's almost like you're chasing returns, which seems counterintuitive to people on the PP board.  The returns in the past 38 years can't be denied, though.

[Storm]

As they say in Forex trading: "The trend is your friend."  My problem is that I have a hard time predicting the future.  If I could program a good algorithmic trading system using something like Interactive Brokers API perhaps I could make a lot of money in Forex, however, I could just as easily lose my shirt.