gold vs us dollar

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

Post Reply
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4647
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

gold vs us dollar

Post by mathjak107 »

it can be interesting to see the effect a rise or fall in the us dollar has on gold prices since gold is priced in us dollars.

kitco has a nice break out showing at any moment how much gold went up or down  vs how much it went up or down by the dollar changing.

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.h ... mpaign=KGX
chesser
Junior Member
Junior Member
Posts: 15
Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2014 7:30 pm

Re: gold vs us dollar

Post by chesser »

This is neat to see.
Thank you for sharing it.
PureSoul
Junior Member
Junior Member
Posts: 12
Joined: Wed Apr 22, 2015 2:55 am

Re: gold vs us dollar

Post by PureSoul »

I am always optimistic on gold as it is the best alternative and is considered to have some trusted value during the time of financial crisis
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: gold vs us dollar

Post by Cortopassi »

Yeah I sure feel a lot better that the drop to 1160 this morning is actually a rise... ::)
Test of the signature line
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3654
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: gold vs us dollar

Post by ochotona »

The time to buy gold is coming... under $1000 an ounce. Maybe even $500 an ounce. I will buy the gold that today's gold bugs will sell in a panic and not tell anyone about.
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: gold vs us dollar

Post by Cortopassi »

Well, if that happens, I suspect gold will be at or under 15% in the PP bands and I'll be buying as well.

It is quite amazing how at every turn in the past few years when you think gold should go one way due to world events it ends up going significantly in the other direction.

Which is why I do not trade anything anymore.
Test of the signature line
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4647
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: gold vs us dollar

Post by mathjak107 »

which is why as an investment gold has the worst track record of them all.

it hasn't done such a great job as an inflation hedge either being quite random in its response . in retrospect it really has not been as predictable as old harry thought it would be.
Last edited by mathjak107 on Tue Jul 07, 2015 9:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Pointedstick
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8883
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2012 9:21 pm
Contact:

Re: gold vs us dollar

Post by Pointedstick »

mathjak107 wrote: which is why as an investment gold has the worst track record of them all.

it hasn't done such a great job as an inflation hedge either being quite random in its response . in retrospect it really has not been as predictable as old harry thought it would be.
Gold hedges against high inflation, and we haven't really had that since the 1970s. The recent big run-up was, we suspect, due to market expectations that inflation was going to rise due to QE and all the other fed programs. For years all the goldbugs have been predicting massive hyperinflation just around the corner but it just hasn't happened. But when that didn't happen, gold started to correct downwards.
Human behavior is economic behavior. The particulars may vary, but competition for limited resources remains a constant.
- CEO Nwabudike Morgan
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4647
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: gold vs us dollar

Post by mathjak107 »

it would take high inflation and a weak dollar.  so far that combo has been off the radar.
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4647
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: gold vs us dollar

Post by mathjak107 »

Pointedstick wrote:
mathjak107 wrote: which is why as an investment gold has the worst track record of them all.

it hasn't done such a great job as an inflation hedge either being quite random in its response . in retrospect it really has not been as predictable as old harry thought it would be.
Gold hedges against high inflation, and we haven't really had that since the 1970s. The recent big run-up was, we suspect, due to market expectations that inflation was going to rise due to QE and all the other fed programs. For years all the goldbugs have been predicting massive hyperinflation just around the corner but it just hasn't happened. But when that didn't happen, gold started to correct downwards.
even the run up in the 1970's wasn't accurate since gold  just came off the gold standard so moves were greatly exaggerated as  money panicked in to a very thin gold market.

today the big benefactor would be short selling , currency hedging and stock options instead of gold if  higher inflation happened again .

over time gold is being looked at with less and less value as a currency  and a source of insurance.  you can see that today when it barely reacted to the Greek financial crises  .

currency's get all the action  and bets not gold.

personally i think  holding so much money in such a poor performing asset  is a waste of good investment dollars.  long term once again i would bet dollars to donuts gold will be left behind.
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: gold vs us dollar

Post by Libertarian666 »

mathjak107 wrote:
Pointedstick wrote:
mathjak107 wrote: which is why as an investment gold has the worst track record of them all.

it hasn't done such a great job as an inflation hedge either being quite random in its response . in retrospect it really has not been as predictable as old harry thought it would be.
Gold hedges against high inflation, and we haven't really had that since the 1970s. The recent big run-up was, we suspect, due to market expectations that inflation was going to rise due to QE and all the other fed programs. For years all the goldbugs have been predicting massive hyperinflation just around the corner but it just hasn't happened. But when that didn't happen, gold started to correct downwards.
even the run up in the 1970's wasn't accurate since gold  just came off the gold standard so moves were greatly exaggerated as  money panicked in to a very thin gold market.

today the big benefactor would be short selling , currency hedging and stock options instead of gold if  higher inflation happened again .

over time gold is being looked at with less and less value as a currency  and a source of insurance.  you can see that today when it barely reacted to the Greek financial crises  .

currency's get all the action  and bets not gold.

personally i think  holding so much money in such a poor performing asset  is a waste of good investment dollars.  long term once again i would bet dollars to donuts gold will be left behind.
So you are going with 25% donuts?  :P
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4647
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: gold vs us dollar

Post by mathjak107 »

even donuts may pan out better than gold has .  whats the risk there ?  you get cruller blind ?  lol
Reub
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3158
Joined: Fri Jan 21, 2011 5:44 pm

Re: gold vs us dollar

Post by Reub »

I'm switching my physical gold for Louis Vuitton handbags. Now there is a real store of value!
User avatar
buddtholomew
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2464
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: gold vs us dollar

Post by buddtholomew »

Reub wrote: I'm switching my physical gold for Louis Vuitton handbags. Now there is a real store of value!
My wife has more LV than I have gold coins  ;D Ever seen the multi-level LV store in Las Vegas? Shoes, golf club bag, roulette table, watches, etc.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
Post Reply