No SS COLA This Year -- Again!

[MachineGhost]

Using the third quarter CPI-W increase to determine a retirement COLA is stupid.  What a bunch of Bullshit.  Meanwhile food prices continue to skyrocket and rent perpetually goes up.  My HMO plan next year wants 20% freakin' copays on everything that is $0 now (which is most everythng) as well as jacking the deductible to $6700 or something.



Something's got to give and I expect it will be a recession to rightsize things.

[mathjak107]

what is wrong is folks thinking that the cpi is supposed to be a reflection of their personal cost of living .

it is not . it is only a price tracker on a basket of goods and services .  it represents the  1500 different mini economy's that make up this country and all do not see what you see . many of those goods or services we do not use .

do you know that for 2016 over 1/2 the housing stock in nyc which represents millions of people has a zero increase in rent voted in ?
for as long as i can remember i never  saw a zero percent rent increase .

we just got back from georgia .  i couldn't believe how little certain food products cost down there compared to what i see up north .

social security was never designed to be someones sole means of support , it is insurance .

your own personal cost of living is something you had to deal with  on your own  as ss would never reflect  what you see personally.

my sister lives in arizona . she refinanced a few years ago . she saved so much per month that her bills are less today then they were 5 years ago ..

i on the other hand rent  and pay my own health insurance  so my costs are way up over the years .

look how many millions of folks get subsidized or paid health care  even in retirement . my buddy was a cop in nyc , he even gets the money back in retirement  for his wife's medicare .

so there are millions out there who do not feel the health insurance crunch like i do  and i get that .

as i said we are 1500 different mini economy's and many are total opposite from what we may see on certain things .

the fact so many ended up using ss as their only pay check  was never the purpose of ss . it was only a back stop against your own planning .


food , especially is volatile and  goes up and down . we saw strawberry's and blueberry's which are a huge part of my diet since i am diabetic and use them a lot jump from 2.50 to 5 bucks in a matter of weeks before falling back again .

just different products going through supply and demand issues .  i can't really say we are spending anymore for food this year then last year .  even eggs saw a tripling for a while because of bird flu  but have been coming back down .  i just got a dozen eggs for the old prices last week .

the myths about subbing hamburger for steak are just plain false , that is not what the cpi does .

prior to the stagflation 70's cola's were not even part of ss insurance .

[Kriegsspiel]

I can't remember where I saw the info, but it looked like within the US, all CPI increases were in the western US. The south, midwest, and northeast all saw declines. I think the western CPI increase was about 1.3%, and all the others were -0.3%.

[mathjak107]

it has to come from somewhere . we just get blinded in to thinking what we see is what others see .

many studys also show that retirees are effected way less by inflation then someone raising a family  .

retirees according to many study's , the most popular being ty bernecke's study and also the sun life study show retirees  tend to spend in a smile shape .

they spend more early on buying things , doing things and going places , then about a decade in  spending falls off a cliff , the buy less , they do less and they go less  .

that pattern tends to hold until the early 80's when healthcare costs rise so the result is a pattern that looks like a smile .

retirees tend to need less inflation adjusting  then those raising family's because what they no longer spend money on pays for much of the increases in what they do . spending drops of 20% or more  are quite common as we age . .


most of the complaints you here from seniors are because of an under funded retirement not because of  inflation factors .


even with a cola adjustment most retirees are still  going to be near poverty level . it was never the intention of ss to be a sole means of support or even the majority of it .  the fact is cola or not 1/2 of retirees live close to poverty level . .

the big wild card will be healthcare costs which are still trying to level out .

[Reub]

Non election year equals no COLA increase. We'll get one next year for sure.

[MachineGhost]

CPI-W means Urban Wage and Clerical inflation.  That has zilch to do with a retiree's expenses.  We're at the technological point now that the SSA could have much more accurate inflation modeling for those 1500 micro-economies and phase of life.

SS was intended to be general welfare for old age, poverty, disabled, unemployed, widows and fatherless children.  In other words, people that unjustly lose out in a brutally competitive capitalist economy.  It was meant to be full support for them, but the political reality of how the implementation went (including the failure of account privatization) meant that the value had to lose ground over time in real terms, so now we're at the point of rationalizing SS as "never intended to be full support" to excuse the usual government incompetence.

[MediumTex]

Medicare premiums ARE going up, so all Social Security recipients will see a net drop in their monthly checks next year.

They're not going to like that very much.

[Libertarian666]

Medicare premiums ARE going up, so all Social Security recipients will see a net drop in their monthly checks next year.

They're not going to like that very much.

Wrong. Those who get their Medicare premiums taken out of their Social Security checks will see no premium increase. This is called the "hold harmless" provision, and is the reason that the 30% of Medicare recipients who pay their premiums in other ways are getting hosed, as they have to pay the whole freight. See http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sens ... -premiums/ for an explanation.

[MachineGhost]

Wrong. Those who get their Medicare premiums taken out of their Social Security checks will see no premium increase. This is called the "hold harmless" provision, and is the reason that the 30% of Medicare recipients who pay their premiums in other ways are getting hosed, as they have to pay the whole freight. See http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sens ... -premiums/ for an explanation.

LOL!  Another government clusterfuck.  Why the hell would anyone not want their Medicare premium automatically withheld and deal with the hassle of having to pay separately and risk the wrath of bureaucratic incompetence?  Sucks to be them now.

...and those who pay their Medicare premiums directly to Social Security, because they haven’t yet begun receiving Social Security benefits. People with low-incomes who have their premiums paid by their state are also not held harmless, so state budgets also would take a hit next year.

Wow, maybe "clusterfuck" was generous.  This is going to kill Illinois.

[MediumTex]

Thanks for the clarification on the way SS and Medicare premiums interact.

That's a pretty stupid arrangement, even for the government.

[Libertarian666]

Wrong. Those who get their Medicare premiums taken out of their Social Security checks will see no premium increase. This is called the "hold harmless" provision, and is the reason that the 30% of Medicare recipients who pay their premiums in other ways are getting hosed, as they have to pay the whole freight. See http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sens ... -premiums/ for an explanation.

LOL!  Another government clusterfuck.  Why the hell would anyone not want their Medicare premium automatically withheld and deal with the hassle of having to pay separately and risk the wrath of bureaucratic incompetence?  Sucks to be them now.

...and those who pay their Medicare premiums directly to Social Security, because they haven’t yet begun receiving Social Security benefits. People with low-incomes who have their premiums paid by their state are also not held harmless, so state budgets also would take a hit next year.

Wow, maybe "clusterfuck" was generous.  This is going to kill Illinois.

If you get SS, it is automatically taken out; there is no option to pay it separately.
So it's only those who are holding off on SS or are making too much money below FRA to get SS checks who don't have it withheld.
I wonder what would happen if everyone had it withheld other than one person?

[mathjak107]

just a point of information .  if you weren't collecting yet and were delaying you could file  for checks for nov  and december then suspend after the first of the year . you would escape the medicare increase


the whopper of an increase will likely only be temporary .

federal law requires medicare users to pretty much support the program .

with most folks collecting ss by 65  most folks are exempt from any increase because of hold harmless and the fact there is no cola in 2016 .  that means very few have to support the increase  making it a 50% jump .

if there is a cola in 2017 then everyone shares the costs and prices should drop .

[MachineGhost]

if there is a cola in 2017 then everyone shares the costs and prices should drop .

Don't you mean, the growth of the premium increase will be less than the growth of the premium the previous year so its a "reduction in spending"? 

If I ever have to start paying the Medicare premium, I will opt out.  Under that circumstance, there is a 10% penalty applied each year to the premium you did not pay and it accumulates until your formal retirement age, then resets to whatever it is at the time (it doesn't reset if you're already past retirement age!).  Imagine that.  Up to 49 years of that 10% penalty fee (490%) accumulating that would make the premium ridiculously absurd.  What happens if you then need insurance, but can't afford that absurd Medicare premium but you're not eligible for other insurance, like Obamacare, because you're eligible for Medicare?  Stupid, stupid government.  I can't wait for term limits.

[mathjak107]

actually the premium should drop once others share this current increase .  there were just so few  who delayed ss to support it  this  time around with no cola .

i bet the following year if there are cola's  it is about a 15 buck increase for everyone from the old price .

[Libertarian666]

if there is a cola in 2017 then everyone shares the costs and prices should drop .

Don't you mean, the growth of the premium increase will be less than the growth of the premium the previous year so its a "reduction in spending"? 

If I ever have to start paying the Medicare premium, I will opt out.  Under that circumstance, there is a 10% penalty applied each year to the premium you did not pay and it accumulates until your formal retirement age, then resets to whatever it is at the time (it doesn't reset if you're already past retirement age!).  Imagine that.  Up to 49 years of that 10% penalty fee (490%) accumulating that would make the premium ridiculously absurd.  What happens if you then need insurance, but can't afford that absurd Medicare premium but you're not eligible for other insurance, like Obamacare, because you're eligible for Medicare?  Stupid, stupid government.  I can't wait for term limits.

So you aren't going to sign up for Medicare until age 114? 

And why do you think term limits would make any difference to this situation?

[mathjak107]

i can't wait to sign up . it is a far better deal then my aca plan. my wife just went on and it is sooooo much better then my aca gold plan .  if nothing else there is no hmo . she can go anywhere in the country without worrying about being out of network like me .

[Libertarian666]

i can't wait to sign up . it is a far better deal then my aca plan. my wife just went on and it is sooooo much better then my aca gold plan .  if nothing else there is no hmo . she can go anywhere in the country without worrying about being out of network like me .

Yes, I have also been favorably impressed with Medicare (+ plan F supplement).
As a customer, that is; as a taxpayer, it's still an insanely bankrupt government program, of course.

[mathjak107]

we took a high deductible f-plan .  we have a 2k deductible  but save 2400 on the plan vs the regular f-plan .  we have little every year in medical so we should save quite a bit .

[MachineGhost]

So you aren't going to sign up for Medicare until age 114? 

Why sign up with it all?  It sucks as an insurance plan.  20% coinsurance, an increasing out of pocket minimum before there's any coinsurance coverage, nothing really useful is covered (like hearing aids!) other than token ObamaCare diagnostics to get everyone fully onboard the Big Pharma gravy train as tools, and a corrupt crony cartel that decides what is and what is not covered.  ObamaCare has better insurance plans!  Do note I'm talking about Original Medicare, not Advantage which is somewhat of a minor improvement if you can tolerate a HMO.

You don't actually have a real choice past retirement age because of that 10% penalty.  I'm not sure what is exactly done about those who defer and then can't afford the penalty-imposed premium because they need sickcare coverage and no other insurance will cover them whether by sense or law.

And why do you think term limits would make any difference to this situation?

We wouldn't elect careerist economic ignoramuses with no real world business experience to implement cockamamie socialist schemes?

[mathjak107]

i have zero complaints about medicare and our f-plan , except the cost .

all our medical is covered 100% and can never cost us anymore like advantage plans and their surprises . we  know god forbid one of us is  seriously ill it will not devastate us .

by the way my wife's first husband died quiet young of cancer .  he had the same cancer as sam walton . after contacting him about an experimental program he had going on in a hospital in alabama he took him in and paid over 2 million dollars in  costs on his behalf . today these are routine procedures but 18 years ago all experimental  with no money paid by insurers .  it did prolong his life by almost 2 years .

[Libertarian666]

So you aren't going to sign up for Medicare until age 114? 

Why sign up with it all?  It sucks as an insurance plan.  20% copays, nothing really useful is covered (like hearing aids!) other than token ObamaCare diagnostics to get everyone fully onboard the Big Pharma gravy train.  ObamaCare has better insurance plans.  Do note I'm talking about Original Medicare, not Advantage which is somewhat of an improvement if you can tolerate a HMO.

You don't actually have a real choice past retirement age because of that 10% penalty.  I'm not sure what is exactly done about those who defer and then can't afford the penalty-imposed premium because they need sickcare coverage and no other insurance will cover them whether by sense or law.

And why do you think term limits would make any difference to this situation?

We wouldn't elect careerist economic ignoramuses with no real world business experience to implement cockamamie socialist schemes?

As I said above, Medicare + plan F supplement isn't bad; we're paying about $500/month for both of us including Medicare & supplement, and it really does pay almost everything. It certainly looks a lot better than some of the corporate Obamacare-compliant plans I've seen.

As for term limits, I'm in favor of them, but I don't think they will solve the problem of having economic ignoramuses in power. 99% of the public has no idea how money actually works, so why would politicians be any better? Unless there is a requirement that only those with a good knowledge of Austrian economics can run for office, they'll still vote to print unbacked paper so they don't have to tax people explicitly to pay for all their crazy schemes. 

[MachineGhost]

I wish you people wouldn't reply so damn fast before I've had a chance to review and edit my original post!  Growl.

[Libertarian666]

I wish you people wouldn't reply so damn fast before I've had a chance to review and edit my original post!  Growl.

I don't see any changes that would invalidate my reply.

[MachineGhost]

i have zero complaints about medicare and our f-plan , except the cost .

all our medical is covered 100% and can never cost us anymore like advantage plans and their surprises

My complaint largely is about the cost for what little you get.  It's just a subsidy for old people who made poor lifestyle choices, except everyone is virtually forced into paying for that, as well as a giveaway to Big Pharma.  For extra motivation, I'd love to read some stories about those that opted out and now their penalty premium is unaffordable and how they're suffering.

[mathjak107]

So you aren't going to sign up for Medicare until age 114? 

Why sign up with it all?  It sucks as an insurance plan.  20% copays, nothing really useful is covered (like hearing aids!) other than token ObamaCare diagnostics to get everyone fully onboard the Big Pharma gravy train.  ObamaCare has better insurance plans.  Do note I'm talking about Original Medicare, not Advantage which is somewhat of an improvement if you can tolerate a HMO.

You don't actually have a real choice past retirement age because of that 10% penalty.  I'm not sure what is exactly done about those who defer and then can't afford the penalty-imposed premium because they need sickcare coverage and no other insurance will cover them whether by sense or law.

And why do you think term limits would make any difference to this situation?

We wouldn't elect careerist economic ignoramuses with no real world business experience to implement cockamamie socialist schemes?

As I said above, Medicare + plan F supplement isn't bad; we're paying about $500/month for both of us including Medicare & supplement, and it really does pay almost everything. It certainly looks a lot better than some of the corporate Obamacare-compliant plans I've seen.

As for term limits, I'm in favor of them, but I don't think they will solve the problem of having economic ignoramuses in power. 99% of the public has no idea how money actually works, so why would politicians be any better? Unless there is a requirement that only those with a good knowledge of Austrian economics can run for office, they'll still vote to print unbacked paper so they don't have to tax people explicitly to pay for all their crazy schemes. 

here in ny medicare and a  regular f-plan are about 830 a month for the two of us . each state is very different because of the way the supplements work .  here in ny we pay more but have special perks only 2 other states have in the country .