Search found 270 matches

by Kevin K.
Sat Nov 28, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around
Replies: 15
Views: 438

Re: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around

Another great post pmward and in one short paragraph you convey more valuable information on Dalio and Bridgewater than pages of stuff I've read on Bogleheads and other forums. Even when you discount the 80-90% of folks who conflate Dalio and Bridgewater with Tony Robbin's "All Seasons" portfolio mu...
by Kevin K.
Sat Nov 28, 2020 9:39 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around
Replies: 15
Views: 438

Re: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around

I really appreciate your posts pmward - thanks for sharing your thoughts. I don't disagree at all with the logic, but am in the Bill Bernstein (or even Golden Butterfly) camp in believing that tilting towards prosperity and inflation protection (e.g. with the GB's 5 x 20% allocation) generally makes...
by Kevin K.
Fri Nov 27, 2020 9:50 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around
Replies: 15
Views: 438

Re: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around

Thanks for the link. I agree it's a good interview (easy to download the transcript, which I prefer). I don't find Rosenberg's argument for 30 year T's all that compelling though. as of today 20 year T's are at 1.36%, 30 at 1.57%, making the 20 year bonds much more appealing it seems to me. Pretty ...
by Kevin K.
Fri Nov 27, 2020 4:43 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around
Replies: 15
Views: 438

Re: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around

Thanks for the link. I agree it's a good interview (easy to download the transcript, which I prefer). I don't find Rosenberg's argument for 30 year T's all that compelling though. as of today 20 year T's are at 1.36%, 30 at 1.57%, making the 20 year bonds much more appealing it seems to me. Pretty e...
by Kevin K.
Wed Nov 25, 2020 1:51 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: LTT & HARRY BROWNE: Doug Casey Opines
Replies: 17
Views: 598

Re: LTT & HARRY BROWNE: Doug Casey Opines

I know this is just semantics/word parsing but I think a relatively important point. There is nothing to suggest the PP has lost it's mojo and there is nothing to suggest the LTT component is not acting exactly as would be expected. It has stood and still is standing the test of time. If i-rates go...
by Kevin K.
Wed Nov 25, 2020 1:44 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: LTT & HARRY BROWNE: Doug Casey Opines
Replies: 17
Views: 598

Re: LTT & HARRY BROWNE: Doug Casey Opines

... The PP itself is an artifact of particular times, interest rates, market conditions and limited investment options that no longer exist. I take it you mean the limits no longer exist, i.e. there are many more options now. Yeah, that's pretty much what I meant, but more specifically I'm referrin...
by Kevin K.
Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:36 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: LTT & HARRY BROWNE: Doug Casey Opines
Replies: 17
Views: 598

Re: LTT & HARRY BROWNE: Doug Casey Opines

This is getting silly. Current S & P dividend is 1.80%. Casey recommends T-bills as a substitute for LTT’s and I’m sure Browne would agree if he were still alive. Casey is just verifying what many others have said here. The principles behind the PP are permanent. The PP itself is an artifact of part...
by Kevin K.
Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:38 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: LTT & HARRY BROWNE: Doug Casey Opines
Replies: 17
Views: 598

Re: LTT & HARRY BROWNE: Doug Casey Opines

The part about switching out LTT’s for T bills starts at 3 minutes in.

https://youtu.be/GI5iUvrHhQ0
by Kevin K.
Sat Nov 14, 2020 1:28 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 5% guaranteed vs PP Results
Replies: 16
Views: 838

Re: 5% guaranteed vs PP Results

We're kind of back to the reasons why the GB makes sense as one possible evolutionary iteration of the PP. The PP allocates equal percentages of assets to address different macroeconomic challenges that aren't equally likely to happen and don't cost the same to insure against. LTT's are for deflatio...
by Kevin K.
Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:44 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Signing Off - Peace, Out
Replies: 38
Views: 1091

Re: Signing Off - Peace, Out

Just wanted to chime in briefly to say I'm among those who regret the intrusion of political stuff into the financial discussions. And the fact that there is a separate forum for politics, not to mention the prevalent content there, just reinforces the stereotypes that many Bogleheads and other main...
by Kevin K.
Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:44 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Perth Mint Article
Replies: 1
Views: 237

Re: Perth Mint Article

Great article Hal. Thanks for posting it!
by Kevin K.
Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:12 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Ray Dalio on Bonds
Replies: 142
Views: 6805

Re: Ray Dalio on Bonds

Yeah I understand that. It's just that with SCHO yielding .10% and 2+ years of duration and VUSXX at .06% I don't see much reward for the duration risk. I can almost see a better argument for 80 or 90% VUSXX and 20% TLT. While the latter ETF is a ticking time bomb if rates spike at least you get a m...