1750 - 1850 and the British Pound was a major international trade settlement currency as it was gold. A Pound was a gold Sovereign coin, a little under a quarter of ounce of gold. So the Pound and gold remained at around GBP 4.25/oz. Inflation was near zero Interest rates were typically around 4%, ...

Three quick questions: One, is there any reason almost all of their strategies--including this one--seem to only go back to 1970 (i.e. only be backtested back to that date), or 1972, or 1973? I would be very suspicious of any backtest that went back past the early 1970s, as the nature of money was ...

👉 Have these economic environments really happened 25% of the time each? 📊 Not exactly. Historical data for the U.S. (since 1900) and Europe (mainly post-1950) tells a different story: ⸻ 🔍 Historical Occurrence of Each Scenario 🇺🇸 United States (NBER, CPI, FRED data): • 🔹 Expansion (GDP growth, low...

everything would feel different if gold was legal tender or there was something backed by gold. I think this would be a key step in restoring responsible behavior by banks That's why it wont happen. ps buy boglercoin Fiat enables fine adjustments to direct glide paths rather than slamming into a wa...

i can see a 50/20/20/10 for retirement 50% equities, 20% gold/bitcoin , maybe 16% gold 4% bitcoin , 20% split between vgsh and vtip and then 10% cash At times the domestic currency might relatively strengthen, assets (stocks/commodities) decline, such as was the case for Japan 2008 (global financia...

The 25% cash can also feel weird. Imagine you had a portfolio of $100m. Would you really put $25m into T-bills? Seems doubtful - you'd prefer to invest those funds in more productive assets, while still keeping a smaller percentage around as "dry powder" in case you want to buy another La...

I have introduced a few coworkers to balanced investing over the past year. (In addition to Bitcoin for speculation.) A issue for me with bitcoin is that of being passed "dirty" coins - historic trail of having been used for illicit purposes or tax avoidance ...etc - resulting in the valu...

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The PP is out of vogue after recent large/fast gains elsewhere - but where the valuations in those alternatives seem high. Perhaps in another year after a major correction the board activity might once again soar. Those that perhaps profit took to start building up PP exposure at recent times might...

Previously many saw bitcoin as a alternative to gold, sold gold to buy bitcoin, nowadays that seems to be reversing. Of course the intangibility is generally seen as a plus. Divisible: isn’t it the ultimate divisible instrument? There are +ve and -ve sides. Tangible in-hand assets have distinct adv...

I think I will do a 3 way version of PP w/o the bonds, and then add bonds later when yields rise. I'll probably do shorter duration bonds, maybe 10 year max. What is your update on this? 3.5 years later I'm going basically a 3 way PP. it's doing well, but I realize I don't have the benefit of the L...

Yep, it’s just marketing. Everything gets compared to gold at some point. I guess it was a foregone conclusion that crypto would, too. Bitcoin: Fungible? Not without a audit trail of interchanges Divisible? Not without a audit trail Tangible? No, only exists as a digital record, isn't backed by phy...

How do you handle different time horizons or inflation assumptions? In the UK case that's easily covered by back-testing against long enough time, that include historic cases such as world wars, high inflation/IMF bailout, 2000 dot com bubble burst, 2008 financial crisis, 2020 Covid ...etc. If the ...

I use a spreadsheet to calculate the yearly real gain factors for the portfolio/assets If one year the PP = +10%, inflation = 4% then 1.10 / 1.04 = 1.0577 real gain factor for that year Repeated for all years. I store those is the first column (a) for each year I then create a column for each run/se...

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8/25/50/17 bitcoin/gold/stablecoin/T-Bills perhaps, where the T-Bills might be periodically withdrawn to buy 'things' with and a few days later returned back into T-Bills.

Due to the fact that taxes are levied against nominal gains, the government scoops up most of the wealth generated through compounding. Maxing out Roth contributions is still worthwhile. Don't contribute to 401k past company match. Buy gold with the rest Thoughts? Taxing nominal gains is a wealth t...

When others had high exposure to US debt (had lent the US a lot), then when the US printed $$$'s and spent that on military/space/whatever then the others had to print more of their own money/currency - to buy more US debt, or otherwise their existing loans to the US would be deflated. A distinct be...

Tariffs confirmed for Saturday. London gonna be crying uncle (Sam). https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-oil-afb915762af6994573353135bcd30a1b “We are going to require a commitment from these seemingly hostile Countries that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back a...

For a flip style asset allocation from a British perspective, third British (GBP) short term treasury (STT), third US (USD) STT, third split thirds 3x stock, gold, silver ... diversified fiat and non fiat currencies. If a single currency crashes to a extreme of a total loss then two-thirds being in ...

CJ, years of austerity won’t be undertaken voluntarily. They will try to kick this down the road forever. Inflation is their only hope to get out of debt. I’m so bad at market timing, so take this for what you paid for it. Gold is going a lot higher. Maybe not soon. But it has to. Short sharp pain ...

I thought there was no political discussion allowed at B’heads. Well, stocks have been on an absolute tear, so I don’t know that they’re in shambles. On-topic: Gold hit US$3785 ! Shambles ... abattoir or butchers 'bloodbath' ... it is not, at least not thus far. Year to recent and the S&P500 is...

For minimalist I compile a Linux kernel (https://kernel.org/) and compile/run a framebuffer vnc and ssh on top of that. ssh into remote boxes/servers and run chrome/whatever on those (gui forwarded via vnc). Around 20MB filesize so boots in a second and on very-low spec hardware. Not good for the li...

GDE is one alternative tax form option, targets holding 90% long stock, 90% via gold Futures, where gold gains are taxed differently to regular gold. 1.8x leveraged 50/50 stock/gold, so for 25% each in stock and gold = 28% GDE (72% rest in short term treasury, or in the case of the PP 25% in LTT/47%...

Did J. Powell really say today that stocks are overvalued? I'm at work, haven't seen the video. Government shutdown in 8 days? Should all be great for stocks. Buy that dip! ;) In British Pounds terms US stock total return year to recent are up around 5%. In terms of Euros US stocks are around flat....

Here in the UK and one ounce legal tender (tax exempt) gold coins via my more regular dealership typically cost spot +1.5% (for 10 coin bundles), sell back (individually) for spot -1%. Bought/sold privately and often both parties are typically content to buy/sell at spot (so just the postage costs),...