Search found 623 matches

by seajay
Thu Sep 11, 2025 6:34 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Those of you who track silver
Replies: 23
Views: 134302

Re: Those of you who track silver

In this context, copper is a recent 'value' play
Image
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... CYoNSwknto
(Much of silver production is a bi-product from copper production)
by seajay
Sun Sep 07, 2025 3:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Quiet board - time to buy?
Replies: 92
Views: 12143

Re: Quiet board - time to buy?

Mathjak makes a valid point. It's all a balancing act. They say you can never change anyone else, you can only change yourself. So in that context, if your own comfort level stands in conflict with the returns you need for the retirement goals you have, it may not be a bad idea to look internally a...
by seajay
Sat Sep 06, 2025 4:50 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Long-term yields keep rising as Trump amps up fight for Fed control
Replies: 10
Views: 2853

Re: Long-term yields keep rising as Trump amps up fight for Fed control

I've been inclined to read it as Global Financial Crisis
by seajay
Sun Aug 31, 2025 2:17 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
Replies: 3119
Views: 2429063

Re: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us

That would be an example of an oxymoron in the dictionary? ... and onyx room is a anagram of oxymoron :) seajay, are you a fan of the internet anagram server? I wrote to the guy once, asking him to make the search term persistent instead of resetting each time. He did it, and it’s been persistent e...
by seajay
Sat Aug 30, 2025 8:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Quiet board - time to buy?
Replies: 92
Views: 12143

Re: Quiet board - time to buy?

yankees60 wrote: Fri Aug 29, 2025 9:41 am
dualstow wrote: Fri Aug 29, 2025 6:22 am The permanent portfolio:
It’s for short-term money 🙄
That would be an example of an oxymoron in the dictionary?
... and onyx room is a anagram of oxymoron :)
by seajay
Sat Aug 30, 2025 8:25 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Quiet board - time to buy?
Replies: 92
Views: 12143

Re: Quiet board - time to buy?

Yeah, the longer I live, the more I’m convinced that most if not all couch potato portfolios* are fine if one sticks with them. Wellesley, 50/50 stock/bond, 20/80 Small Cap Value/PP (Golden Butterfly), 24/76 Mid Cap/PP (19% in each of the four PP assets) ... and each/any of those would have been 's...
by seajay
Fri Aug 29, 2025 3:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Quiet board - time to buy?
Replies: 92
Views: 12143

Re: Quiet board - time to buy?

i disagree ,the pp isn’t a good choice for most in their accumulation stage . that is not the time to be in what is considered a capital preservation portfolio not a pedal to the metal growth portfolio for decades of growth absolutely not in my opinion. unless one is making a load of money where th...
by seajay
Tue Aug 26, 2025 3:59 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
Replies: 3119
Views: 2429063

Re: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us

What we're finding is that the caregiving field is dominated by immigrants. Elders are valued more highly in some cultures Is it not more a case of family units, 'mother' staying at home to raise the kids and care for the elderly versus both parents working and paying fortunes in child/elderly care...
by seajay
Sat Aug 23, 2025 6:20 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Quiet board - time to buy?
Replies: 92
Views: 12143

Re: Quiet board - time to buy?

When modest/deep downturns occur even those that let others manage their money may capitulate, its a common time for high flows out of more aggressive funds. Those that manage their own initial more aggressive asset allocation, or have managers doing that for them, end up after capitulation with les...
by seajay
Thu Aug 21, 2025 1:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Quiet board - time to buy?
Replies: 92
Views: 12143

Re: Quiet board - time to buy?

Bitcoin has become more mainstream recently, which limits backtesting however from 2021, after all of the big-up's as it became more accepted, 25/50/25 bitcoin/stablecoin/gold compared against stocks https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=sP2kvSaDHg695k8P7yq22 With that yo...
by seajay
Thu Aug 21, 2025 12:33 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Quiet board - time to buy?
Replies: 92
Views: 12143

Re: Quiet board - time to buy?

If you inspect the yearly gains of each stock in a general stock index and sort those from worst to best then typically the left tail (quarter) is often down, the right tail up, the middle 50% section relatively flat, often not dissimilar to cash. You might emulate that, a form of synthetic stock in...
by seajay
Thu Aug 21, 2025 7:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Quiet board - time to buy?
Replies: 92
Views: 12143

Re: Quiet board - time to buy?

many abandoned the pp because of it or they are still licking their wounds from long term bonds which are still off 50% from their peak as well as zero returns on cash at a time other assets were doing very well. In purchase power terms, cash and gold had a good year in 2022 when both yielded near ...
by seajay
Sat Aug 16, 2025 4:12 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Quiet board - time to buy?
Replies: 92
Views: 12143

Quiet board - time to buy?

The PP is out of vogue after recent large/fast gains elsewhere - but where the valuations in those alternatives seem high. Perhaps in another year after a major correction the board activity might once again soar. Those that perhaps profit took to start building up PP exposure at recent times might ...
by seajay
Tue Aug 12, 2025 5:42 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 456
Views: 599586

Re: BTC in the PP

A private key is 32 bytes, what's not to stop random 32 bytes private keys being generated and then applied across the entire blockchain to see if it opens up any addresses, rinse and repeat continually and surely by chance/luck it will periodically strike it lucky ??? Have at it O0 I don’t think y...
by seajay
Tue Aug 12, 2025 5:37 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: New tariffs on Swiss kilo and 100toz gold bars
Replies: 12
Views: 3821

Re: New tariffs on Swiss kilo and 100toz gold bars

It's an attempt at capital flow control. They don't want organizations settling in gold. They want to push them through SWIFT and the US Dollar. The US has been running with a deficit, borrows from abroad, buys more imports than it exports. Lower interest rates paid by the US than what it receives ...
by seajay
Wed Aug 06, 2025 12:09 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 456
Views: 599586

Re: BTC in the PP

A private key is 32 bytes, what's not to stop random 32 bytes private keys being generated and then applied across the entire blockchain to see if it opens up any addresses, rinse and repeat continually and surely by chance/luck it will periodically strike it lucky ???
by seajay
Wed Aug 06, 2025 12:04 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Hedge Fund Manager sees US becoming Greece
Replies: 9
Views: 98449

Re: Hedge Fund Manager sees US becoming Greece

UK imports of US cars plunge 60% in June 2025. Similar likely elsewhere. Trumps ever dynamic changes in tariffs are pretty much making buying from or selling to the US as non viable. Much trust has also been lost. In another year I wouldn't be surprised to see high reciprocal penalties against other...
by seajay
Wed Jul 23, 2025 9:58 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
Replies: 3119
Views: 2429063

Trump - Self proclaimed dummy?

Trump has recently said that he is "never going to let the dollar slide." The only way that could happen, he added, is "if you have a dummy" as president. The US dollar index - a measure of the US currency against various foreign currencies - has fallen 12.5% since his Inaugurati...
by seajay
Sun Jul 13, 2025 12:28 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio: Has Each Scenario Really Happened 25% of the Time? 🤔📉📈
Replies: 9
Views: 32736

Re: Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio: Has Each Scenario Really Happened 25% of the Time? 🤔📉📈

except the portfolio is very rate sensitive at the end of the day . all assets today also get hit at the same time when risk is , as they say OFF . Today if someone wants reliable seesaw action between assets there are ways like inverse funds , long short funds and managed. futures . in harry’s tim...
by seajay
Thu Jul 10, 2025 7:12 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Var - Crypto Variable Port
Replies: 9
Views: 47153

Re: Var - Crypto Variable Port

CRYPTO USD crypto price qty BTC 10000 48465 0.2063344682 ETH 10000 3850 2.597402597 Perhaps consider selling (profit taking) half of that at recent price levels and putting half of that into something like USDt (stablecoin/cash) and half into GDE. Be better placed to be able to buy more BTC/ETH if/...
by seajay
Thu Jul 10, 2025 7:06 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Var - Crypto Variable Port
Replies: 9
Views: 47153

Re: Var - Crypto Variable Port

BTC has been performing exceptionally well, outperforming the TQQQ and UPRO, which I both have. That's standard form. Leveraged holdings will rise more during Bull phases, dive deeper during Bear phases. Wouldn't be surprised to see another October type crash this year across which Bitcoin/TQQQ/UPR...
by seajay
Wed Jul 09, 2025 1:04 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Hedge Fund Manager sees US becoming Greece
Replies: 9
Views: 98449

Re: Hedge Fund Manager sees US becoming Greece

others are inclined to redirect trade and with low/no tariffs between themselves. But such transitions away from over-dependence upon the US takes time (years), once that ball is rolling however and as per 1932/Wall Street Crash years the consequences can be dire. I stand corrected and note that in...
by seajay
Sun Jun 22, 2025 7:24 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Those of you who track silver
Replies: 23
Views: 134302

Re: Those of you who track silver

There's around 500 ounces of silver in each Tomahawk missile. Given that two nuke states, US and Israel, have confirmed their combined planing and attacking of a non nuke state (Iran) and intentionally hitting nuclear plants, that has the US/Israel in the same category as Russia striking non nuke Uk...
by seajay
Thu Jun 19, 2025 7:44 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
Replies: 33
Views: 11792

Re: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀

50/50 short/long dated barbell combines to a central bullet. In both cases you're lending to someone who has a money printing press (and as such has no real need to borrow), and post 2008 the directional push has been more towards bail-in rather than (taxpayer funded) bail-outs. Not good. A distinct...
by seajay
Sat Jun 14, 2025 12:58 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Hedge Fund Manager sees US becoming Greece
Replies: 9
Views: 98449

Re: Hedge Fund Manager sees US becoming Greece

Many countries are just pacifying Trump, be yes-men in his presence, but are planning their own thing. In 1930 US exports to Europe amounted to 2341 million, by 1932 following reciprocation against US tariffs that had declined to 784 million. Henry Ford called the protectionism/tariffs 'stupidity'. ...