Search found 665 matches

by seajay
Sun Feb 01, 2026 7:23 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Those of you who track silver
Replies: 92
Views: 214683

Re: Those of you who track silver

Sunday 13:15 GMT time has BullionVault silver trading at around $84/toz

Image

and at a similar price for KAG https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/silver/
by seajay
Sat Jan 24, 2026 9:38 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 4125
Views: 3244405

Re: The GOLD scream room

As that thread is locked will we be able to count on gold coming to the rescue if we see a major collapse in the price of common stocks? No! At times both stocks and gold have down years. A case example is for Japan 2008. At the start of the year it took 111 Yen to buy a US dollar, by year end that ...
by seajay
Tue Jan 20, 2026 6:59 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Safe-Haven Status
Replies: 6
Views: 1181

Re: Safe-Haven Status

The big question is, how much is temporary and how much is permanent? WWHD? (What Would Harry Do?) It does seem that there are both short-term and long-term (secular) trends involved, but personally I don't know enough to tease out the factors. However, I do think it's something to keep an eye on. ...
by seajay
Tue Jan 20, 2026 6:46 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Safe-Haven Status
Replies: 6
Views: 1181

Re: Safe-Haven Status

According to a new working paper (which I haven't read yet but plan to soon), long-term Treasuries might be losing their safe-haven status, with the result that investors are rotating to short-term Treasuries and gold. More here: https://www.nber.org/papers/w34640 Definitely feels like we could be ...
by seajay
Tue Jan 20, 2026 6:31 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 💼 Cash Management in HB-PP: To Rebalance or Not? 🔄
Replies: 24
Views: 2917

Re: 💼 Cash Management in HB-PP: To Rebalance or Not? 🔄

Use a 2x leveraged stock fund for the 'stock' third. Thirds each 2x stock, gold, cash Gold in hand, safest cash (T-Bills/short term treasury). Exposure of 66% stock, 33% gold, 33% cash, 33% borrowed (by the leveraged ETF). Reduced counter-party risk, benchmark to 67/33 stock/bond and better reward,...
by seajay
Tue Jan 20, 2026 6:20 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Global Stock ETFs
Replies: 6
Views: 1288

Re: Global Stock ETFs

ex-US just HAD a big run up. Foreign tax credit is a nuisance. Gold is global exposure. India and China dont necessarily let you have a slice. https://old.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1m6s5bs/give_me_a_reason_not_to_invest_in_the_chinese/ https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=409...
by seajay
Sat Jan 10, 2026 5:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 💼 Cash Management in HB-PP: To Rebalance or Not? 🔄
Replies: 24
Views: 2917

Re: 💼 Cash Management in HB-PP: To Rebalance or Not? 🔄

Use a 2x leveraged stock fund for the 'stock' third. Thirds each 2x stock, gold, cash Gold in hand, safest cash (T-Bills/short term treasury). Exposure of 66% stock, 33% gold, 33% cash, 33% borrowed (by the leveraged ETF). Reduced counter-party risk, benchmark to 67/33 stock/bond and better reward,...
by seajay
Sat Jan 10, 2026 5:18 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 4125
Views: 3244405

Re: The GOLD scream room

I can’t sell gold, and I wish there was some group like AA that I could go to for this problem. Not even swaps? The gold/Silver ratio (GSR) at the start of 2025 stood at 90, a historic relative high, a ounce of gold bought 90 ounces of silver. Year end 2025 the GSR had declined to 57, swapping back...
by seajay
Thu Jan 08, 2026 8:21 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 💼 Cash Management in HB-PP: To Rebalance or Not? 🔄
Replies: 24
Views: 2917

Re: 💼 Cash Management in HB-PP: To Rebalance or Not? 🔄

Use a 2x leveraged stock fund for the 'stock' third. Thirds each 2x stock, gold, cash Gold in hand, safest cash (T-Bills/short term treasury). Exposure of 66% stock, 33% gold, 33% cash, 33% borrowed (by the leveraged ETF). Reduced counter-party risk, benchmark to 67/33 stock/bond and better reward, ...
by seajay
Thu Jan 08, 2026 8:10 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Those of you who track silver
Replies: 92
Views: 214683

Re: Those of you who track silver

dualstow wrote: Tue Jan 06, 2026 9:10 am80
Gold/Silver ratio 60.

Those that swapped gold for silver when GSR was 90 might swap back again and end up with 50% more gold.
by seajay
Thu Jan 08, 2026 8:07 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Those of you who track silver
Replies: 92
Views: 214683

Re: Those of you who track silver

P.S. Check out the “more than 500 pounds of precious metal” thread at b’heads. Yes, I saw that thread the other day. Apparently industrial demand for silver is high and junk silver is selling at a discount due to refiner backlog? I guess the lesson is if you're going to buy silver, don't buy the &q...
by seajay
Thu Dec 18, 2025 10:28 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Earning interest on gold
Replies: 0
Views: 1740

Earning interest on gold

KAU (Kinesis gold) yield for 2025 indicated as being 4.38% https://i.postimg.cc/MH6Kv0tg/kinesis.png that's activity driven where much of that arose during March to July To earn that you do have to link a offline/cold wallet in, which is no different to making it online and the additional risks that...
by seajay
Fri Dec 05, 2025 2:28 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 488
Views: 886907

Re: BTC in the PP

I agree. It's dead to me. If you want digital gold, buy GLD. If you want a cryptocurrency, try Monero. Bitcoin via coinbase -> offline wallet binance using just a email to import the bitcoin and swap for monero then swap back for (different) bitcoin -> to offline wallet ... does break the bitcoin c...
by seajay
Thu Dec 04, 2025 11:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Why so quiet?
Replies: 19
Views: 2579

Re: Why so quiet?

But, just because someone is interested in the permanent portfolio, that doesn’t mean they’re going to wind up here. Let's face it, discussion forums (run on PHP, no less) are so 90s. These days all the cool kids are on TikTok or maybe Signal/Discord/Slack chats. ... where they perceive stocks and ...
by seajay
Wed Dec 03, 2025 11:52 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 488
Views: 886907

Re: BTC in the PP

ibit is 2% of the portfolio. i wouldn’t sit on more than not no matter whether i thought it was headed up or down . its more like a tech stock then alternative now Bitcoin blockchain is now too controlled/regulated, you have to verify any bitcoin you receive is 'clean' or otherwise risk losing it w...
by seajay
Wed Dec 03, 2025 11:20 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Those of you who track silver
Replies: 92
Views: 214683

Re: Those of you who track silver

What's driving silver now? Impending supply shock as the LBMA's (now mostly the COMEX's) silver ocean continues to evaporate. Silver stockpiles have also slumped in China (Shanghai). China restricts the Chinese to only selling gold to the state an treats silver much the same as gold, and has permit...
by seajay
Tue Nov 11, 2025 12:54 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: 2025 Gold Forecasts
Replies: 24
Views: 35794

Re: 2025 Gold Forecasts

Neither fiat or gold standards are ideal, both have flaws, ... Governments suffer fiscal restraints under gold standards / sound money. People suffer stealth wealth theft via inflation under fiat currency systems. The choice seems easy to me. We seem to be transitioning to a bi era, some of both, w...
by seajay
Sat Nov 01, 2025 8:04 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: AllocateSmartly (Ochotona)
Replies: 13
Views: 78035

Re: Moonshots

1750 - 1850 and the British Pound was a major international trade settlement currency as it was gold. A Pound was a gold Sovereign coin, a little under a quarter of ounce of gold. So the Pound and gold remained at around GBP 4.25/oz. Inflation was near zero Interest rates were typically around 4%, ...
by seajay
Fri Oct 31, 2025 6:57 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: AllocateSmartly (Ochotona)
Replies: 13
Views: 78035

Re: Moonshots

Three quick questions: One, is there any reason almost all of their strategies--including this one--seem to only go back to 1970 (i.e. only be backtested back to that date), or 1972, or 1973? I would be very suspicious of any backtest that went back past the early 1970s, as the nature of money was ...
by seajay
Fri Oct 31, 2025 5:35 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio: Has Each Scenario Really Happened 25% of the Time? 🤔📉📈
Replies: 13
Views: 76998

Re: Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio: Has Each Scenario Really Happened 25% of the Time? 🤔📉📈

👉 Have these economic environments really happened 25% of the time each? 📊 Not exactly. Historical data for the U.S. (since 1900) and Europe (mainly post-1950) tells a different story: ⸻ 🔍 Historical Occurrence of Each Scenario 🇺🇸 United States (NBER, CPI, FRED data): • 🔹 Expansion (GDP growth, low...
by seajay
Fri Oct 24, 2025 8:37 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: 2025 Gold Forecasts
Replies: 24
Views: 35794

Re: 2025 Gold Forecasts

everything would feel different if gold was legal tender or there was something backed by gold. I think this would be a key step in restoring responsible behavior by banks That's why it wont happen. ps buy boglercoin Fiat enables fine adjustments to direct glide paths rather than slamming into a wa...
by seajay
Fri Oct 24, 2025 8:11 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Quiet board - time to buy?
Replies: 137
Views: 220712

Re: Quiet board - time to buy?

i can see a 50/20/20/10 for retirement 50% equities, 20% gold/bitcoin , maybe 16% gold 4% bitcoin , 20% split between vgsh and vtip and then 10% cash At times the domestic currency might relatively strengthen, assets (stocks/commodities) decline, such as was the case for Japan 2008 (global financia...
by seajay
Fri Oct 24, 2025 6:25 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Quiet board - time to buy?
Replies: 137
Views: 220712

Re: Quiet board - time to buy?

The 25% cash can also feel weird. Imagine you had a portfolio of $100m. Would you really put $25m into T-bills? Seems doubtful - you'd prefer to invest those funds in more productive assets, while still keeping a smaller percentage around as "dry powder" in case you want to buy another La...
by seajay
Thu Oct 23, 2025 4:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Quiet board - time to buy?
Replies: 137
Views: 220712

Re: Quiet board - time to buy?

I have introduced a few coworkers to balanced investing over the past year. (In addition to Bitcoin for speculation.) A issue for me with bitcoin is that of being passed "dirty" coins - historic trail of having been used for illicit purposes or tax avoidance ...etc - resulting in the valu...
by seajay
Thu Oct 23, 2025 3:48 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 4125
Views: 3244405

Re: The GOLD scream room

?

Image
:)