Search found 686 matches

by seajay
Mon Mar 16, 2026 10:42 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: U.S. And Israel bomb Iran?
Replies: 45
Views: 5546

Re: U.S. And Israel bomb Iran?

The middle east provides around 25% of daily barrels of oil. Many producers suppress production - have capacity to supply more especially if/when the price is high. If the Strait was closed, such as due to Iran mining the narrow (difficult to defend) Strait then both the US and Russia could do very ...
by seajay
Sat Mar 14, 2026 10:31 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 522
Views: 1023341

Re: BTC in the PP

https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-bitcoin-digital-gold-or-fools-gold-the-markets-still-deciding/ Is Bitcoin Digital Gold or Fool’s Gold? The Market’s Still Deciding There are dedicated forms of digital gold, bitcoin is distinctly different and seems to be being priced similar to a 3x leveraged te...
by seajay
Sat Mar 07, 2026 1:58 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: U.S. And Israel bomb Iran?
Replies: 45
Views: 5546

Re: U.S. And Israel bomb Iran?

Irony. Russia is supplying intel to Iran to aid targeting US assets. The US has asked Ukraine for help fighting Iranian drones. Trump prefers to lay out a red carpet and a fly-by for Putin but shout at Zelenskyy.
by seajay
Sat Mar 07, 2026 7:31 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: U.S. And Israel bomb Iran?
Replies: 45
Views: 5546

Re: U.S. And Israel bomb Iran?

Correct me if I am wrong, but I fear one of the few viable options US & Israel do have is to completely obliterate Iran's infrastructure... Needless to repeat my father's advice to never push a possibly dangerous animal in the corner with no chance to escape. It's all or nothing war, I am reall...
by seajay
Fri Mar 06, 2026 12:50 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My 3x Leveraged Variable Portfolio
Replies: 4
Views: 1794

Re: My 3x Leveraged Variable Portfolio

That's a lot of debt (borrowing for leverage). Perhaps consider just scaling/leveraging the stock PP element alone

Image
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... mn3tk7O7eV
by seajay
Fri Mar 06, 2026 12:24 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: U.S. And Israel bomb Iran?
Replies: 45
Views: 5546

Re: U.S. And Israel bomb Iran?

Kill a religious leader during Ramadan and watch the extremist ranks swell to new all time highs, … Trumps spontaneity/irrationality is very dangerous, he's clicking on the doomsday clock to seconds before midnight. Striking during a holiday is really from the Muslim playbook. They’ve been doing it...
by seajay
Fri Mar 06, 2026 10:45 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: U.S. And Israel bomb Iran?
Replies: 45
Views: 5546

Re: U.S. And Israel bomb Iran?

Kill a religious leader during Ramadan and watch the extremist ranks swell to new all time highs, and in addition to de-dollarization promote the development of weapons of mass destruction capable of being deployed within the US - such as biological weapons where even just a small vile less than the...
by seajay
Sun Mar 01, 2026 10:14 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the VP
Replies: 26
Views: 8217

Re: Bitcoin in the VP

Reconverion of bitcoin back to regular fiat currency is and will become increasingly difficult. Here’s a post from a few months ago: We keep saying "Bitcoin fixes this" but the fiat off-ramp is still broken - are we just early or is this a fundamental problem? https://www.reddit.com/r/Bit...
by seajay
Thu Feb 26, 2026 2:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP variant using GDE
Replies: 1
Views: 1294

PP variant using GDE

variants.png
variants.png (33.12 KiB) Viewed 1294 times
by seajay
Thu Feb 26, 2026 9:45 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the VP
Replies: 26
Views: 8217

Re: Bitcoin in the VP

I should have used a comma

Reconversion of bitcoin back to regular fiat currency is and will become increasingly difficult, wallets even with a small amount of tainted bitcoin may be locked.
by seajay
Tue Feb 24, 2026 2:10 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the VP
Replies: 26
Views: 8217

Re: Bitcoin in the VP

Here is a good new video on Bitcoin from Patrick Boyle: "Bitcoin Is Crashing and Exchanges Freezing Up" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xhrzm4CmpEo Reconverion of bitcoin back to regular fiat currency is and will become increasingly difficult. Wallets even with a small amount of tainted b...
by seajay
Tue Feb 24, 2026 2:01 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the VP
Replies: 26
Views: 8217

Re: Bitcoin in the VP

Which one you use ? Leveraging? USD trading currency choice. 3USL (trades in USD) instead of 3LUS (that trades in GBP) for instance. Rebalancing the FX element once/year rather than daily adjustments is inclined to be better IMO. Hello 👋🏻 Can you please help with your portfolio for European euro cu...
by seajay
Tue Feb 24, 2026 1:58 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bridgewater All Weather ETF
Replies: 46
Views: 48285

Re: Bridgewater All Weather ETF

yankees60 wrote: Sat Apr 05, 2025 8:25 amCapture.JPG
PRPFX is from a time when the Swiss Franc was gold backed, that it ended on May 1st 2000
by seajay
Fri Feb 20, 2026 12:24 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 1403
Views: 1884676

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Yes he does indeed O0 At least he hasn’t started any new forever wars. Let’s revisit that in a couple of weeks. Do you not think its another Venezuela II case, build up the fleet to readiness, then a concurrent decapitation of the IRG as and when that becomes a evident possibility rather than outri...
by seajay
Fri Feb 20, 2026 12:21 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the VP
Replies: 26
Views: 8217

Re: Bitcoin in the VP

frugal wrote: Wed Feb 18, 2026 8:55 am Which one you use ?

Leveraging?
USD trading currency choice. 3USL (trades in USD) instead of 3LUS (that trades in GBP) for instance. Rebalancing the FX element once/year rather than daily adjustments is inclined to be better IMO.
by seajay
Tue Feb 17, 2026 10:02 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 1403
Views: 1884676

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

What Russia mines of gold and silver is enough to cover the Russian cost of fighting the Ukraine war. The Swiss don't prohibit Russian gold/silver - just 'advise' investors not to buy it, that once refined into good delivery bars can be sold in London. Putin hasn't had to impose conscription, much o...
by seajay
Tue Feb 17, 2026 9:20 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the VP
Replies: 26
Views: 8217

Re: Bitcoin in the VP

3% is the right number very volatile! only bitcoin no shitcoins which other assets can should we add to VP ? Regards! 8) The PP was devised as a potentially safer alternative to T-Bills Expectations : Stock share prices broadly compare to inflation Gold price broadly compares to inflation Hard cash...
by seajay
Tue Feb 17, 2026 5:40 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the VP
Replies: 26
Views: 8217

Re: Bitcoin in the VP

3% is the right number very volatile! only bitcoin no shitcoins which other assets can should we add to VP ? Regards! 8) The PP was devised as a potentially safer alternative to T-Bills Expectations : Stock share prices broadly compare to inflation Gold price broadly compares to inflation Hard cash...
by seajay
Tue Feb 10, 2026 10:23 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP symmetry
Replies: 0
Views: 5040

PP symmetry

Data since 1933 for a 4x25 Permanent Portfolio asset allocation where pre 1970 silver was held instead of gold, stock (large cap LC), long term treasury (LTT), T-Bills, PM (precious metal), which might be considered as a portfolio comprised of six 50:50 pairs of assets each pair weighted 16.6%. Meas...
by seajay
Mon Feb 09, 2026 11:33 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 4150
Views: 3549705

Re: The GOLD scream room

I thought he asserted that the price of gold cannot be manipulated, even though everyone always decries manipulation by one entity or another. The gold that the Fed transferred over to the Treasury in exchange for non redeemable 'notes' at $42.22/ounce in effect means that the Fed has paper 'claim'...
by seajay
Sun Feb 01, 2026 3:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Improving the PP through simplification
Replies: 9
Views: 7820

Re: Improving the PP through simplification

If you price in gold (as though it was money) rather than fiat dollars then historically the Dow price in ounces of gold ... https://i.postimg.cc/MX2k9Z8K/i.png Do the same for T-Bills (accumulation) and CPI and both of those generally aligned with each other but in a generally downward slope manner...
by seajay
Sun Feb 01, 2026 7:23 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Those of you who track silver
Replies: 92
Views: 279506

Re: Those of you who track silver

Sunday 13:15 GMT time has BullionVault silver trading at around $84/toz

Image

and at a similar price for KAG https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/silver/
by seajay
Sat Jan 24, 2026 9:38 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 4150
Views: 3549705

Re: The GOLD scream room

As that thread is locked will we be able to count on gold coming to the rescue if we see a major collapse in the price of common stocks? No! At times both stocks and gold have down years. A case example is for Japan 2008. At the start of the year it took 111 Yen to buy a US dollar, by year end that ...
by seajay
Tue Jan 20, 2026 6:59 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Safe-Haven Status
Replies: 8
Views: 12612

Re: Safe-Haven Status

The big question is, how much is temporary and how much is permanent? WWHD? (What Would Harry Do?) It does seem that there are both short-term and long-term (secular) trends involved, but personally I don't know enough to tease out the factors. However, I do think it's something to keep an eye on. ...
by seajay
Tue Jan 20, 2026 6:46 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Safe-Haven Status
Replies: 8
Views: 12612

Re: Safe-Haven Status

According to a new working paper (which I haven't read yet but plan to soon), long-term Treasuries might be losing their safe-haven status, with the result that investors are rotating to short-term Treasuries and gold. More here: https://www.nber.org/papers/w34640 Definitely feels like we could be ...